Splurging

I find it hard to believe I'm betting so many games on the opening weekend of the NFL season. With teams' fortunes often changing dramatically from one season to the next, what am I thinking? Oh well, I'm full of piss and vinegar and hopefully my buccaneering success with this new attitude in poker will translate to betting.

Here are four additions to the already lengthy slate of bets from yesterday:

JAGUARS at Colts +7 I think the Jags will bounce back from last season's let-down. One of their five wins last season came at this stadium, although I'll grant that the Colts were finding their feet in their new home (gee, it was tough not having the piped-in crowd noise any more) and Manning started the season rusty. Even so, Jacksonville know what it takes to play Sindy close and indeed to beat them.
FIVE POINT BET Result: Jacksonville lose but cover by 5

OVER THE TOTAL Dolphins at Falcons 43.5 What you have here is two teams that can pass the ball well, score pretty well in the red-zone and don't have great defenses, particularly against the pass. It's also a non-conference game and therefore a little less tense. Expect points.
FOUR POINT BET Result: only 26 points

UNDER THE TOTAL Redskins at Giants 37.5 No science here. Decent defenses, lots of running, typical NFC East slugging match yada yada yada. I've put more thought into it than that, honestly. But not much more, and I wish the rain and wind wasn't set to subside by Sunday. I'm getting buyer's remorse on this one.
FOUR POINT BET Result: Loss by 2.5 pts on TD with 1:42 remaining

UNDER THE TOTAL Vikings at Browns 40 The Vikings chew the clock by running the ball but aren't great at getting the ball into the endzone. They defend well. Cleveland are likely to look a lot more like their 2008 selves than their successful 2007 model.
FOUR POINT BET Not even close, a hefty 54 points

There you go, follow my advice and win money - but probably best leave the under/overs alone.

National Football Leak

I used to do very well betting on the NFL. Since moving to the States my results have declined year on year, which I think is a function of my being exposed to so much more 'expert analysis', so much information, so many opinions, so much hype and counter-hype. I've ended up conflicted over almost every game, no longer trusting in my own opinion and instincts when I've had those of Boomer Esaiason, Cris Collinsworth, the New York Post and its half-dozen 'handicappers', guys down the pub, guys on the radio, guys on the internet all babbling away.

It's ended up turning NFL betting into a small 'leak' compared to my awesome poker skillz.

This season it's going to be different. I'm shutting out all that crap, and utilising some new ideas and statistical angles from a rather spiffing book to go along with my own unpolluted judgements and gut feel. So without further ado, here are my bets for Week One of what might be the last great NFL season before the salary cap disaappears:

BENGALS over Broncos -4.5 This has mysteriously been bet down to a 4 point line since I backed it yesterday. I'm sure Denver won't be quite the disaster many people expect this season, but it's sure to take a little while for them to find their feet with a new head coach and other staff, new schemes, new quarterback, and a defense that needs a ton of improvement from last season. I think Kyle Orton is under-rated, but going into his first game in a new offense with a hand injury is hardly ideal. I am amazed that a team in this situation, going on the road to a Bengals team with a decent enough defense and the returning Carson Palmer, is only given four points.
TEN POINT MAX BET Result: Denver somehow pull off the upset

COWBOYS at Buccaneers -6 I'm not exactly brimming with confidence on this pick, I will admit. I was salivating when early lines had Dallas only -3 and couldn't stop myself still backing them at this more stringent line, once my betting account was loaded. That's mug behaviour to be honest, but I still expect Dallas to win the game handily. The Buccs, like Denver, are in overhaul-mode and this was exacerbated by a change of OC just weeks before the season - especially when the first act of the new OC has been to add a bunch more plays to the playbook with little time to bed them in. Tampa Bay are also on a downgrade at quarterback with Leftwich coming in. It's hard to like a slow-release QB against a sack-happy defense.
EIGHT POINT BET Result: Dallas cover by 7

VIKINGS at Browns -4 There is a pattern emerging here of my opposing teams with brand new coaching staff. While that's generally not a bad idea, this is another selection that I've gone off a little since placing the bet. I like the Vikings as a team a lot, but I can't help reflecting that they don't often win games by many points. Oh well, here's hoping that the Browns players already hate Mangini as much as I do and their defenders spend their time telling Favre how funny his new Sears ad is (and it is) rather than, say, intercepting him.
EIGHT POINT BET Result: Vikings cover by 10

EAGLES at Carolina -1 I'm backing rather too many road favourites here, am I not? Philly have been bet down to 2.5 point favourites since I got on, which is irrelevant but always satisfying. Carolina won all eight home games last year, if I remember correctly, but I ignore things like that and besides they can be reasonably expected to regress to the mean a little bit. I simply like the Eagles better as a team, and I have a sneaking suspicion that McNabb will be on fire with a desire to prove that the offense don't need no stinkin' Michael Vick gadget plays during the two weeks before Vick is eligible to play.
SEVEN POINT BET Result: Philly cover by 27!

HOUSTON over NY Jets -4 Once again, opposing the team with a coaching overhaul, new schemes and new (and rookie at that) quarterback. I feel a little more secure in adding to all that the fact that the Jets are on the road and Houston are generally pretty strong at home.
EIGHT POINT BET Result: Pitiful Houston lose outright

ATLANTA over Miami -4 This is pretty much a selection simply because I am going to be opposing Miami frequently this season, against almost any half-decent team.
EIGHT POINT BET Result: Atlanta cover by 8


So there you have it. Six games is rather a lot to bet, and I considered Jacksonville +7 at Indianapolis as well and still might have a small tickle on that. I'm also weighing up a couple of under/overs, but I have a terrible, terrible record on those. I'll keep you posted, yes both of you.

Twin Peak

Aahhhh, that's better. I mentioned a little winless run in my earlier post (there was a minimum cash in there but those hardly count), and I've just broken out of it by winning a 27-seater and an 18-seater simultaneously. So simultanously that the final hand of each (A8>AJ in one of 'em) took place at the very same moment. Sweet.

It's not easy playing headsup on two tables at once. I'm sure the 12, 14, 20-tabling superfreaks can do it while MSN-ing and pissing in a bottle at the same time, but it's more challenging for the likes of me. Still, it does render you more emotionally detached from each game in isolation and that is usually helpful in decision-making.

I'm currently a shade over 45% ROI in these games. I like to think that's good, but I'm generally trying to steer clear of forums etc. I'm wary of finding myself reading strategy threads and then ending up tinkering with my game, when if anything I need to struggle to keep it simple and not start deviating from the basics that are serving me well.

Meanwhile, I'm wary of this blog being all poker-poker-poker. Unfortunately (ha!) my life is a lot more stable - and happy - than it used to be, which does seem to limit my material a bit. I'll try to step up the swearing in future entries.

Really boring entry with good quote at the end

In an exciting development I just received my first ever "cheating victim credit" from Pokerstars. Really not exciting, it amounted to one sng buy-in for me, but it brings a warm glow to know that Stars are watching my back like kindly godparents.

I play too low in general to worry unduly about collaboration, although I've been suspicious a handful of times. I suspect this episode occurred during my recent tilt at one-table turbos. Time has been shorter than usual recently so even the two-table sngs that are my bread and butter have been out of the question (they generally take an hour and a half if you get to the end) so I played a ton of turbos. I enjoyed them immensely but my ROI plummeted from an early 25% to 8% by the end, scuppering any suspicions that the hourly might be better than in the two-table games.

I'm now planning to put in a ton (130 to be precise) of the two-tables by the end of the month. My ROI there remains very stable, fluctuating between 40 and 45 percent. The results in the 18 seaters and 27 seaters seem to rise and fall like two sides of a pair of scales, but the overall profit remains remarkably consistent. Having said that, I am on a little scoreless run right now - but it's just the usual story of losing the crucial flip in pursuit of a monster stack. Nothing to worry about.

I just recalled a really good poker quote I read somewhere:

"He who bets the most, wins - cards just break the ties".

Now I'm off to research turnover differentials in preparation for the NFL season.