Pundits talk piffle

Here are this week's NFL bets, and frankly I'm amazed again at how many games I'm getting involved with. Stakes are generally smaller this week; I don't see any monster standout can't-lose locks like we had last week with, uh, Cincinnati over Denver.

SEATTLE +2 @ San Francisco
The 49ers are quickly becoming a media-darling team, what in UK racing parlance is known as 'a talking horse'. Talking horses are often worth opposing, especially against strong oposition looking to return to divisional pre-eminence after a nightmarish, injury-destroyed season. Seattle will slap San Francisco down.
6 point bet

Oakland @ Kansas City UNDER 38 points
I just can't see this game being anything other than a runrunrun-fest. The total has surprisingly moved up half a point since I got on, which I assume must be due to the increased likelihood of Matt Cassell playing. I like Cassell but I don't think whoever plays QB for KC is going to make much difference to the overall nature of this game. FWIW thunderstorms are predicted in the PM.
5 point bet

CAROLINA +6.5 @ Atlanta
You can read my rant about NFL pundits, following these picks, for more details on one reason I am opposing Atlanta here - namely that their win over Miami was nothing special. Besides that, I don't see Jake Del'Homme (sp?) being put under the same pressure this week as last by either this opposition, or his own team's gameplan. Coming off a horrible home loss Carolina can be expected to play this division game very tough, plenty of hard running, and I think they have a fair chance of winning the game.
4 point bet

DALLAS -2.5 over NYG
Did you know that the Giants lost only three of their eighteen fumbles last season? For all that they are a very good team, that kind of luck doesn't last forever - and more importantly, it helps inflate a team's rep a little. I'm not completely sold on Dallas after the way they gave up ground yards last week, but I certainly take the home advantage and a small handicap here.
4 point bet

JACKSONVILLE -3 over Arizona
For various reasons, I expect the Jags to bounce back strongly from last season's performance. I don't much like the Cardinals chances on this long non-conference trip.
3 point bet

TENNESSEE -6.5 over Houston
It really goes against the grain for me to bet on a big favourite after just one week of the season. Teams who've had a big wake-up call in a home loss, a la Houston, can be dangerous. However, the Titans have had a long week, are a fearsome team and want this division win very badly. The Texans couldn't cope with the Jets defense last week, and this looks like a deja vu defeat for them.
3 point bet

Minnesota @ Detroit UNDER 46.5
I'm struggling to come up with many likely scenarios in which this game produces a ton of points. Perhaps the Lions rookie QB throws a couple of interceptions inside his own half. Perhaps there's a huge punt return. But on balance the most likely outcome seems to be a trench war, slowly and inexorably won by the Vikings, who then close out the clock and the game. Caveat: I've so far sucked at picking over/unders.
3 point bet

WASHINGTON -9.5 over St. Louis
I can't believe I just typed that out, let alone actually have put money on it already. Never before have I supported a near ten-point favourite. However, I think Washington bear comparison in many ways with Seattle on both sides of the ball and the Rams lost 28-nothing at Seattle despite being plus two on turnovers. Furthermore you'd need to use a cluster of super-computers to find two worse back-to-back road trips than Washington State followed by Washington DC.
2 point bet

CINCINNATI +8.5 @ Green Bay
You'd think last week would have put me off the Bengals, wouldn't you? Well I'm pissed off to have missed the 9 points they were being given earlier in the week, but I still think 8.5 is generous. The Packers defense is being talked about in hushed, reverent tones after one regular season game (no, pre-season doesn't count, at all) against an interception-prone QB making his first start with a new team. Call me crazy but I still believe Carson, Chad and co can put up points here and be in the hunt to win this game as it enters the last five minutes.
2 point bet


Okay, rant time. Pundits talk a lot of crap about the NFL, suggesting they haven't watched the game they are referring to or even bothered to look into the stats. Greg Rosenthal of NBC Sports confidently states that the Atlanta Falcons "put together one of the most impressive performances [of week 1] on both sides of the ball".

This glib assertion seems to be based on the fact that Atlanta led 19-0 near the end of the game. Let me make some counterpoints:

1. The Falcons won by just 12 points despite going +4 on turnovers.

2. They gained fewer yards per offensive play than Miami.

3. They allowed Miami to rush for 4.4 yards per carry, while their own running game mustered a pitiful 2.5 yards per try.

4. They didn't convert well in the red zone.

5. Miami started its drives on average at its own 20, the Falcons started on average at the 47 and lest you think this was down to great field position work, Atlanta punted for markedly fewer gross and net yards than the Dolphins as well.

Does ANY of that sound like one of the most impressive week one performances on both sides of the ball? This game was decided almost entirely by the four Miami turnovers. Now Miami are due some turnover woes this year, which is precisely why I backed Atlanta to win that game... but if you start basing your impression of a team and its performances on the kind of glib, know-nothing crap that Greg produced here then you are in big trouble if you want to win money betting betting for or against that team.

By the way, Greg mentions that the Falcons led 19-0 near the end of the game 'despite missing kicks'. They did indeed miss two field goals, from reasonable range - PLUS an extra point. That just makes me even warier of the Falcons for betting purposes; they now need to prove that they can make routine kicks to put points on the board when they don't get into the endzone.

If you're betting, look into the games for yourself, don't rely in the slightest on throwaway comments from people whose position you would imagine allows them to look into the sport more closely than you; quite obviously they simply don't bother.

Consistency

I'm not going to get close to my target of 130 18-man or 27-man SNGs by the end of the month. However, I have a good chance of making the amount of money that the target was based upon, as my consistency and ROI have been spectacular.

I'm under no illusions that the 70%+ ROI I'm showing in this targeted spell can be sustained over any large sample. However, it isn't soooo far from my total performance as to be utterly ridiculous; while I've cashed in 8 of my last 19, that's included an unusual rash of low cashes and bubbles. Those have featured a KKvAA sickener and a couple of losses of monster pots (as favourite) that would have sent me cruising to the headsup.

This isn't intended as bragging, I just think it's important that I record my success just as I record my failures and bad beats. It also helps to put it all down in black and white and realise that it's frankly ridiculous that I haven't moved up in stakes yet. Have been toying with the idea of adding more tables (I typically only play two at once) but I'm quite sure I'd see more of a dropoff in ROI that way than if I simply stepped up a level. I don't play these on auto-pilot in the manner of most multi-tablers, so I need to pay attention.

You might also ask why I'm bothering with the 18-man games, given the disparity in profit with the 27s. I would have answered that it's easier to go on a run of no cashes with the larger field, so the 18's help keep me positive in case that happens. Yet I see now that I have longer runs without cashing in those, too. They probably have to go.

I'm also champing at the bit to play some larger (in field size) MTTs. The last one I played, I finished about 80th out of nearly 8,000 entrants and had a blast. But, as ever, I simply don't have the opportunity to play for four, five, eight hours straight very often.

NFL wrap-up

Barring any last-minute action-junkie bets, which thankfully are not my style, that's NFL week one in the books.

If you followed my advice you made a little over 2.5 points profit on rather a lot of turnover. On the other hand, if you took the additional advice to ignore my over/under bets then you made almost 15 points at about 27% ROI. I was 5-2 betting on teams (which is excellent) and 0-3 betting on totals (which is... well, you know).

I can't cure myself of this banging-my-head-against-a-wall conviction that I can get under/overs right eventually, but will scale the size of those bets back even further unless or until that actually starts to happen.

Week two looks like yielding fewer picks, nothing jumps out and smacks me in the face. Initial games of interest may be Jacksonville over Arizona and San Diego over Baltimore, but I have hours of intensive analysis to perform before sharing the gold-dust with you....