National Football Leak

I used to do very well betting on the NFL. Since moving to the States my results have declined year on year, which I think is a function of my being exposed to so much more 'expert analysis', so much information, so many opinions, so much hype and counter-hype. I've ended up conflicted over almost every game, no longer trusting in my own opinion and instincts when I've had those of Boomer Esaiason, Cris Collinsworth, the New York Post and its half-dozen 'handicappers', guys down the pub, guys on the radio, guys on the internet all babbling away.

It's ended up turning NFL betting into a small 'leak' compared to my awesome poker skillz.

This season it's going to be different. I'm shutting out all that crap, and utilising some new ideas and statistical angles from a rather spiffing book to go along with my own unpolluted judgements and gut feel. So without further ado, here are my bets for Week One of what might be the last great NFL season before the salary cap disaappears:

BENGALS over Broncos -4.5 This has mysteriously been bet down to a 4 point line since I backed it yesterday. I'm sure Denver won't be quite the disaster many people expect this season, but it's sure to take a little while for them to find their feet with a new head coach and other staff, new schemes, new quarterback, and a defense that needs a ton of improvement from last season. I think Kyle Orton is under-rated, but going into his first game in a new offense with a hand injury is hardly ideal. I am amazed that a team in this situation, going on the road to a Bengals team with a decent enough defense and the returning Carson Palmer, is only given four points.
TEN POINT MAX BET Result: Denver somehow pull off the upset

COWBOYS at Buccaneers -6 I'm not exactly brimming with confidence on this pick, I will admit. I was salivating when early lines had Dallas only -3 and couldn't stop myself still backing them at this more stringent line, once my betting account was loaded. That's mug behaviour to be honest, but I still expect Dallas to win the game handily. The Buccs, like Denver, are in overhaul-mode and this was exacerbated by a change of OC just weeks before the season - especially when the first act of the new OC has been to add a bunch more plays to the playbook with little time to bed them in. Tampa Bay are also on a downgrade at quarterback with Leftwich coming in. It's hard to like a slow-release QB against a sack-happy defense.
EIGHT POINT BET Result: Dallas cover by 7

VIKINGS at Browns -4 There is a pattern emerging here of my opposing teams with brand new coaching staff. While that's generally not a bad idea, this is another selection that I've gone off a little since placing the bet. I like the Vikings as a team a lot, but I can't help reflecting that they don't often win games by many points. Oh well, here's hoping that the Browns players already hate Mangini as much as I do and their defenders spend their time telling Favre how funny his new Sears ad is (and it is) rather than, say, intercepting him.
EIGHT POINT BET Result: Vikings cover by 10

EAGLES at Carolina -1 I'm backing rather too many road favourites here, am I not? Philly have been bet down to 2.5 point favourites since I got on, which is irrelevant but always satisfying. Carolina won all eight home games last year, if I remember correctly, but I ignore things like that and besides they can be reasonably expected to regress to the mean a little bit. I simply like the Eagles better as a team, and I have a sneaking suspicion that McNabb will be on fire with a desire to prove that the offense don't need no stinkin' Michael Vick gadget plays during the two weeks before Vick is eligible to play.
SEVEN POINT BET Result: Philly cover by 27!

HOUSTON over NY Jets -4 Once again, opposing the team with a coaching overhaul, new schemes and new (and rookie at that) quarterback. I feel a little more secure in adding to all that the fact that the Jets are on the road and Houston are generally pretty strong at home.
EIGHT POINT BET Result: Pitiful Houston lose outright

ATLANTA over Miami -4 This is pretty much a selection simply because I am going to be opposing Miami frequently this season, against almost any half-decent team.
EIGHT POINT BET Result: Atlanta cover by 8


So there you have it. Six games is rather a lot to bet, and I considered Jacksonville +7 at Indianapolis as well and still might have a small tickle on that. I'm also weighing up a couple of under/overs, but I have a terrible, terrible record on those. I'll keep you posted, yes both of you.