NFL Week Four

Poker-wise, I only managed 60 SNGs in my span of 5th-30th September, against a target of 130. Not good. But - as looked nailed on when I last posted - I finished slightly ahead of my profit target, thanks to a superb ROI of 80%. I'm now moving a little higher in stakes, simply to increase the volume.

NFL-wise, last week I made a profit. Better than I showed here, as I also ended up siding with the Giants (beat the spread by about 16 points), the Broncos (covered the spread by about 18 points), and the Cardinals (got blown out).

Without further ado, here are this week's selections:

Buffalo -1 @ Miami - 8 point bet
Why? Three reasons for this pick. First, I marked the Dolphins down as a team to oppose pretty much all season in any remotely difficult spot. Their inflated rating from last year is probably all gone now at 0-3, but this just became a very difficult spot indeed with the loss of Chad Pennington. That's reason number two; for all those who knock Pennington, I just don't buy that Miami won't suffer offensively in going from accurate ten-year veteran QB to Chad Henne starting his first NFL game. I also have a suspicion that they'll try go more vertical at times, leading to more risks and probably more mistakes. Reason three concerns Miami's so-far sieve-like secondary trying to prevent Evans and Owens making some big gains.
What could go wrong? Buffalo's starting safeties both being out is a worry, and they've given up an alarming number of sacks thus far. Hope Porter's out.
Bills 27 - 14 Dolphins

St Louis +9.5 @ San Francisco - 8 point bet
Why? The Rams will presumably look to shorten this game with plenty of running, one thing (the only thing?!) they've been quite good at this season. They also should be able to prevent San Francisco running wild on offense, mainly because the 49ers don't appear to be able to do that. I expect this game to still be up for grabs entering the fourth quarter.
What could go wrong? Kyle Boller hasn't started in a while
Rams 20 - 21 49ers

Jacksonville +3 over Tennessee - 6 point bet
Why? It's quite hard to separate these teams statistically and we all know the kind of bruising game it's going to be, with both teams in danger of being in inescapable holes with a loss here. In the end, I find the points on the Jags impossible to resist given the Titan's problems returning kicks, making super-costly turnovers and travelling for a second week.
What could go wrong? Rob Bironas kicks a last-second 54-yard field goal to win?
Jags 17 - 14 Titans

Chicago -9.5 over Detroit - 6 point bet
Why? No danger of taking the Lions lightly after their win last week; Bears utterly on their mettle to record a division win. I expect them to get after QB Stafford and force some mistakes. I quite like the fact that this is a first outdoors and grass game for Detroit this season, for what it's worth, but the clincher for me is the presence of Rod Marinelli as Chicago assistant head coach/DL coach. For all the roster turnover at Detroit, I think he will still have inside track on enough of the Lions to ensure that this is a very comfortable home victory.
What could go wrong? Cutler turns it over too much, Lions eat clock
Bears 27 - 10 Detroit

Baltimore +2 @ New England - 5 point bet
Why? I had this down as the most obvious pick of the week initially, but on closer examination there isn't nearly as much between these two teams as you/I might think. Of course, it's always tricky to judge the merits of victories like the Ravens' over the likes of KC and Cleveland. In many ways, this looks like a rather similar matchup to Baltimore's trip to San Diego in week two; the Chargers haven't been terribly strong in run or pass offense, but Philip Rivers was able to pass for a ton of yards without getting it into the endzone. That sounds somewhat familiar to Pats fans this year. Given the closeness of that game at Qualcomm I was teetering on the edge of picking the Pats, but their passing game isn't nearly as effective as San Diego's yet this year. Ravens probably sneak it.
What could go wrong? Flacco off-day, Brady and co finally really click in the air
Baltimore 31 - 24 New England

Denver ML over Dallas - 5 point bet
Why? Everyone knows Denver have played bad teams, right? Well, Dallas opponents Tampa and Carolina say 'hi'. Both these teams can run the ball; Denver appear better at stopping the run. Romo is the big name; Orton is the guy not making mistakes. Denver are at home, Dallas are on the road off a Monday night game. I admit I'd rather be betting the Broncos with the +3 points they're getting, but my book has shaved the odds too much there so I'll take the money line (2.15) in a game where I make the home team the favourite.
What could go wrong? Orton coughs up his first INT of the season?
Denver 20 - 17 Dallas

New Orleans -7 over NY Jets - 4 point bet
Why? What you're not reading about the Jets: If New England had capitalised at all on complete first half dominance they'd have beaten the Jets... The most valuable player for the Jets in their tight win over Tennessee was the visitors' return man Mouton - he handed them the ball on the Titans' own 19-yard line and 23-yard line... Mark Sanchez has fumbled the ball four times in three weeks. It's hard to imagine that the Saints in their noisy dome, looking to go 4-0 into their bye week, will co-operate in the NFL's apparent mission to make the New Jersey team appear much better than they actually are. Jets might ultimately be benefitted by going into two division games after this with just a little less cockiness.
What could go wrong? Every bounce of the ball could continue to go Jets way
New Orleans 27 - 13 NY Jets