Good reads go bad

Three PLO sit and goes without cashing since I wrote about my expertise! 4th, 6th and 5th. I haven't done much wrong, but if you can't make a hand at any stage of the game then you are going to go out before the money. My confidence is unaffected, and I'm playing one now.

Had a bad morning though, dropped a whole buy-in at $50 omaha cash. I have to learn sometimes to allow for the truly unpredictable (unpredictably bad, I mean) play of some opponents; its no good making a good read on what they have, and bluffing because they can't possibly call with what they have, when in fact they CAN possibly call!

I am staying at a friend's house at the moment, cat-sitting for the weekend. It is nice to get some privacy and space.

Irony of the week: I finally raised the nerve to attend my dentist's appointment on Friday (despite no pain since that time a couple weeks ago) and I got the time wrong. I wasn't too concerned, and they gave me a fresh appointment for Wednesday. Lo and behold, late Friday night my tooth started giving me pain again. It is almost funny, but too painful and annoying to quite make it.

The esteemed reader who commented on my giving up smoking will probably be disappointed to hear that I have flopped completely!

I am playing like a dick in this sit and go. I got a nice stack, but have pissed most of it away when I have made the right read and failed to act on it.

This is a crap post. Sorry, I'm fuzzy on codeine.

Giving up is hard to do

So, I went about 23 hours without a cigarette, then had three. However, I scrounged them from friends at the pub after work, didn't buy them myself, therefore they don't actually count.

I don't know if you do smoke, have smoked, or have tried to give up, but it is hard. And I am far from being a 20-a-day type of person - more like ten or less on average. Also, I don't smoke at home nor when I am out with certain friends, and I don't particularly struggle with that. Yet to give up completely, well I am finding it hard. I don't think I am yet 100% committed to the idea... a bit like never limping with trouble hands out of position.

Moving swiftly on, I played last night after my two day break. It went like this:

NLHE Heads-up matches: Played 4, lost 3. I am not enjoying much fortune in these at present, but I think I have deteriorated a little. Losing three of four sucked. -$12

PLO Sit n Go: I came 5th, thanks to an awful beat. I had kept my head above water really well but was the shortest stack of five fairly equal players remaining. I got a flop of JJ4 and I held AJxx. A complete moron, who had been lucky time after time and seen his stack go huge, small, huge, small etc, called my all-in. This worried me until he turned over KK4x. I was all set to go chip-leader and leave him absolutely crippled, but >>boom!<< one of his two outs instantly hit the turn and I was out. -$6

PLO Cash: A session that was frustrating at times. I played pretty tight, and had a pattern of getting ahead then losing it again when a big cautiously-played draw failed to hit. I actually had just about the biggest straight draw on earth in one hand, with (I think, will check the hand history later) fifteen outs on the flop and nineteen on the turn and a weak flush draw too (most likely flush blockers as you assume someone in a multi-way pot has the suited Ace). Its the sort of situation where the correct move woulda been a big raise on the flop, but I bottled it due to the bankroll and was happy to draw at the right price instead on all streets. That was a good thing, since the river paired and a bullshit two pair became a boat.

However, I won two biggish pots later on against opponents who made really bad all-in calls and finished nicely ahead. +$64 (approx)

PLO Sit n Go: Another attempt. This game dragged and dragged, but I stayed patient and got aggressive when the blinds started getting worthwhile. With three left I had two thirds of the chips, but the other two wouldn't play with me and could never manage to knock each other out either. This went on and on, until I took a hit to leave us almost equal in stacks - in fact, I was the shortest by a slim margin. But I continued to be aggressive while the other two fannied about and soon restored the correct order of things. At last I knocked out one, went heads-up with a 4-1 lead and finished the job very quickly for a beautiful and satisfying first place. +$19

It was a very pleasing result, because once again I was prepared to take the bull by the horns when we got to the business end, while my opponents were pussying around trying to avoid the bubble or third place. I don't want to big myself up too much, but I believe I played both the sit n goes better than anyone else at the tables, and thoroughly deserved my win.

My good run now looks like this: 1,2,2,1,2,1,7,4,2,5,1. I think that is pretty stellar, with a 142% return on investment over eleven games. I can hear 'Small sample alert!!' being screamed at me, but considering that my 4th and 5th place finishes were very unlucky I do believe I can avoid slipping too far off these sort of performances. I'll set out my approach and the reasons I am doing so well...

1. Lots of poor opponents, some of whom do not even know the rules. Last night there were a couple who claimed they thought they had entered Hold 'Em games, and the way they played showed that they were not running some kind of silly hustle. First two players out, in fact. So, there is usually dead money in these games

2. Pot-limit. It isn't no-limit, so in the early stages you can get some play, out-play people after the flop, and know that somebody can't just 'stack off' on you at any moment, particularly pre-flop. More chances for those bad opponents to make mistakes.

3. Many opponents play the game backwards. Meaning, they are happy to throw chips around early on when the blinds are tiny, and then they clam up when it gets to four or five players and when the blinds start getting reasonably sized. This is completely and utterly wrong - or at least, my results say it is wrong. I am not interested in anything but a mortal lock in the early stages. I see cheap flops and get the hell out unless I am in a hugely favourable spot. I make borderline folds to decent bets in these stages, where I would be raising all-in later on. So, I either get a decent stack when someone calls my nut flush with their weak flush, my full house with their straight; or I conserve enough chips still to be able to do damage as the blinds escalate.

When it gets short-handed I get aggressive with any decent or half-decent hand. My opponents fold far too often; and if they call, well Omaha hands run pretty close pre-flop
so I am always in with a shout.

And thats about it. I have blogger paranoia now, whispering in my ear that having set out my foolproof masterplan I will subsequently suffer a series of embarrassing defeats. I hope you're grateful!

Perhaps the karma

Right, I am giving up smoking. Smoking sucks, it is affecting my health and fitness, and I can’t afford it. I will still have alcohol to affect my health and fitness and cost me money, so that will be okay.

I didn’t play the last two nights. I got drunk and then just chatted with someone online when I got home Monday, and last night I watched ‘The Big Lebowski’ in bed. Good film.

I have actually been toying with the idea of taking a whole week off from the game. That’s not so much about being fed up with playing, as about wanting to actually spend some time doing other stuff for a change. Playing online poker has become my default activity absolutely every time I have the opportunity, and therefore I have missed out on keeping in touch with distant friends, reading books, watching a number of decent DVD’s which are gathering DVD dust on a shelf, maybe even doing a little writing (I’ve had the odd item published here and there in the past).

Hell, I might even get off my arse and do some new things once in a while – perhaps do some swimming as I try to unclog my lungs and limbs. The little swimming I did every day on holiday made a discernible difference to my stomach and how I actually felt.

And beyond all that, I really could do with a bit more sleep. In fact, a lot more sleep during the week.

Still, I don’t think an all-out giving-up of playing is what I will do; just an attempt to cut down, play less out of habit and more out of a genuine desire and enthusiasm to play when it strikes me; when I feel enthused and turned on by the lure of trying to read opponents, make good decisions, practice self-control and self-awareness, all that stuff. Oh, not to mention money. I do, really do, play for the money you know – indeed one of the reasons I play so much is because I need every extra penny (technically, cent) that I can get..

As regards money, the way things have gone lately I really should stick entirely to Pot Limit Omaha Sit & Go tournaments. My last nine results have included three firsts, four seconds and no thirds. Only missed the money twice; a seventh where I deviated from my normal approach a little, and an extremely unlucky bubble in fourth place. It represents a really good return on investment in these events, whilst I have been treading water at best in other games.

I should try to get as many of these sit & goes played as I can, including playing two at once when possible. I definitely have an edge here; each event typically includes anything from two to five players with no clue (there’s often one who doesn’t understand the rules or how to read an Omaha hand!), and I have a clear and successful strategic approach, which I have honed a little recently. I am not for a moment saying I can place top two in seven out of nine over a longer period, but I believe I can money half the time and then its all about keeping the third places to a minimum.

Iggy commented on my sit'n'go 2nd place on Sunday night, where we were three-handed but one guy was no longer actually playing. I let the guy who was still present take second (by folding my button a few times) ahead of the absent guy before taking him on headsup. The more I think about it, the stupider I feel. I didn't owe the other guy anything, and I would not expect a similar favour from somebody if the roles were reversed.

Still, the stupidest thing is that I did it at mainly because I thought I had the first place sewn up. I was going to be 4-1 chip leader once we were headsup. Still, I should have thought harder about that - one double-through and it's only a 3-2 lead, one more and I am in trouble. And that is exactly what happened.

Oh well, perhaps the karma will do me good.

State of the nation

When I began this blog only a little over two months ago (it seems longer), things were wonderful in the kingdom of poker; I was winning session after session and growing a realy nice bankroll for my level of play.

Since then, things have gone downhill quite badly. My personal finances have required me to draw upon my bankroll, and a few disastreous sessions have decimated what was left. This has had the knock-on effect of causing me to play a tiny, scared-money bankroll with an inevitable loss of freedom and strength in my play.

So what am I taking from this terrible run that is positive, life-affirming and helps me?

Nothing.

It just fucking sucks.

As I write I have just been fucked up the arse by a crappy river at pot limit Omaha. It always seems to be the way that when you are short-stacked and struggling then the bad beats start flowing. Ten minutes ago I got beat in a heads-up match in which I was pummelling my opponent. It reached the point that he just started calling me with any hand whatsoever when I was trying to finish him off, and proceeded to horribly out-draw me in three consecutive hands to win the match.

So there you go. Profits have plummeted from over a thousand dollars to about half that. Winning sessions have become less frequent. My confidence in my game has taken a nosedive.

An awful lot of this comes down to my now pathetic bankroll, which really inhibits me.

Anyway, lets move along. Its been a mixed weekend. Friday night was cool. Another night where I was pleasantly drunk and played strangely well on it. I won $20 at pot limit Omaha, and took a satisfying second in another Omaha sit and go after being ridiculously short-stacked.

Saturday was uncool. It began with a really, really, really annoying session of pot limit five card stud. People made a couple of calls on the end that I will never understand (but winning calls none the less), and I got stiffed bad when a woman made a straight against my (A)TA hand.

After that a headsup match went against me, while pot limit Omaha started well and then got frustrating as I folded preflop to heavy action with borderline hands like QQxx, and such hands turned into the nuts while the ones I did play couldn't hit a flop. At the same time, I won another Omaha sit and go. That gave me an extraordinary record of six consecutive finishes in the top two: 1,2,2,1,2,1.

The night was a loss of $30, exactly negating Friday's win.

(Just flopped quad 9's at PLO, checked flop and turn, five opponents, could not get a bet, call or raise out of a single one of them)

(Just went out 4th in a sit and go. Three short stacks. I was the only one trying to make moves and get somewhere. I got incredibly cruelly beaten in the end, the same guy beat me with a two outer and then an eight outer when we clashed and I had him in all sorts of trouble).

My run of sit and go cashes has ended today, with a 7th and an extremely unlucky bubble.

Wow, I have turned into a bad beat bore. Tonight has also sucked, as the bracketed stories have illustrated. I am now about to put my bankroll into a pot limit Omaha game and go crazy-mental with it. I always did like the final scene of 'Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid'.

Postscript: 2nd in a sit and go. With three left one was not playing any more. I had a monster chip lead, something like 12,000 to 3.00 divided between the other two. I let the active guy take second before I started playing him, which came back to bit me in the arse when he mounted an absolutely unbelievable comeback headsup. He won every single hand. I am an idiot. I could have eliminated him and been headsup with an absent player! Feedback please: Am I am complete idiot who lacks killer instinct, or a decent guy who did the 'right thing'?