Friday, October 30, 2009

Probability Universe warp-drive

I righted the ship just a little in the sit and goes, with two 4ths and a 2nd in the last eight attempts, going out in those 4th places (and hence making a significant difference to my ROI) as a 71 and 72 percent favourite - just to ensure I didn't get any silly ideas about running good. The ROI is in the black for the month but it's pitiful and I'm not happy.

I took a little detour into 'double or nothing' turboes, with the aim of just adding to the bankroll in an easy, relatively stress- and swing-free manner. That was going swimmingly until I hit an absolutely astonishing run two days ago, going 2-12. This felt like I was bravely exploring the very limits of possibility/probability. It did include running TT into QQ, TT into KK, KK into AA three times (in fourteen tourneys, remember) and not winning even one of those confrontations despite hitting my set twice.

Saddling back up, I then went on a run of ten straight cashes, slingshotting across the probability universe like some kind of sci-fi warp-drive spaceship, all the way out to the opposite edge.

All very bizarre. Rounding off this 'double or nothing' saga, I just went out of one in a pre-flop all-in as a 93% favourite to win. I only mention this because I actually didn't know you could be a 93% favourite pre-flop in Hold 'Em. I thought the maximum was just shy of 90%.

1 Comments:

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