Snooker picks

Time for some ante-post World Snooker bets I think....

It is hard to pick much value out of the outright winner market, although a back-to-form John Higgins with a pretty easy path to the semifinals is pretty good at 8/1.

Neil Robertson might be worth a cheeky punt to make the highest break of the tournament, at 50/1. He's a top eight player of the next year or so for sure, is a brilliant break-builder, and from watching him practice lately he looks bang in form. Unfortunately he drew Hendry in round one so he may only get one match. 50/1 will do though.

For match betting I like the follwing handicap selections:

5/6 Barry Pinches +2.5 versus Doherty
Pinches could beat Doherty, who has had a poor old time ever since losing in the first round here last year. You can get 2/1 on Pinches, but I'd take the handicap.

5/6 Robert Milkins +3.5 v Mark Williams
OK, I hate Mark Williams and might be biased, but despite a recent upturn he is not the player he was. Again, Milkins could beat him even without the handicap.

EVS Neil Robertson +3.5 v Hendry
Hendry will have been gutted to draw Robertson. It all depends if the Aussie falls foul of Crucible debutante nerves, but he seems the most laid-back character you could meet.

5/6 Jimmy White -2.5 v Fergal O'Brien
Getting onto dodgy ground now, but I do think the Whirlwind will put mediocre O'Brien away. People will tell you that White has no chance in this tournament, but he made two finals last season and can still mix it with the best.

5/6 Peter Ebdon -2.5 v Quinten Hann
I do like watching Hann, even though he is undoubtedly a nob. However, Peter Ebdon is exactly the sort of opponent he won't beat, because Ebdon will mercilessly exploit Quinten's dreadful, impatient temperament. I would love to pick up a ticket for this match. and will try to do so.

So, I am off to Sheffield tomorrow for five days of snooker and other fun. I had loads of other stuff to write about but cannot be arsed right now. Suffice it to say that I have put a few more hours in this evening and it has not gone well. A cocky lack of focus has been partly to blame, plus an inability to hit a damn card.

Bad hand

Ouch. I have injured my right hand, and can’t pick things up very easily. I did it by falling over my own bicycle while walking with The Girl I Am No Longer Seeing. We met for a quick drink yesterday evening, and it became clear that I really did hurt her. I feel pretty lousy about it.

I also have my moments of regret; giving up a girl with a lovely body and great chemistry doesn’t always seem the most sensible act. But I am mostly loving the total freedom I created for myself

I managed to get three hours in last night, taking to me just over thirteen in the 25 Hour Challenge. I thought that pride (in quoting my $20+ hourly here) was coming before a fall as I sunk to minus thirty fairly quickly, unable to either hit a flop or buy a pot. However, patience and good judgement – including dealing with a maniac at one table – won through. I recorded a decent enough win, though it pulled me just under $20 per hour for the duration of the ‘challenge’.

I’m trying to take the positive view about pillaging my bankroll for my trip to the snooker. The positive view is this; I am taking a five day holiday, and poker is paying just about every penny involved. Excellent!

Once I return I am going to become Super Grinder, building an untouchable bankroll until I am playing at a respectable level.

Failing the challenge

The 25 hour challenge is really not going well. Thanks to snooker, my immense social popularity and good looks, and being a little tired and ill lately, I have only managed ten hours in the seven days since I began. Oops.

On the other hand, I am winning very nicely in those ten hours. I don't know what to make of my results lately. They are very good, and I have been playing mostly PLO8 and mostly Party. It seems like I can make a ludicrous hourly rate (in proportion to the size of the stakes) but of course the sample is still small. In fact, I need to catch up on importing almost a week's worth of hands into Poker Tracker Omaha, just to to see exactly how I stand.

I am definitely going to be moving up to bigger games at Party in the very near future. There seem to be so many people who don't 'get' certain ideas about playing PLO8 and I don't expect that to change enormously at the next level.

Besides that guff, I am realising more and more the extent to which being a winning cash game player is about emotional control. When I am in that zone of detachment - able to withstand the losses and accept the gambles with equanimity, just keep making right decisions - I feel I can very rarely lose. I think most of my significant mistakes in poker - the vast majority in fact - have occurred as a direct result of over-emotional decision-making. Subtle tilt, in other words. I bet the same is true of you.

Romantic nights at the movies

I’ve made a few forward steps in the past month; joining the party at Party, getting rakeback, adding sitemeter to my blog. And winning quite well, too.

Sitemeter has been interesting since I added it on Friday. I’ve had about thirty visitors in almost three days, but it seems that the majority of them have arrived via a web search for ‘rude pictures’. I believe I wrote about using my camera-phone to send some to The Girl I Am No Longer Seeing. No wonder the average visitor only stays 50 seconds, when they find there aren’t actually any rude pictures here.

I’m not doing too well on my ‘25 hours by Friday’ target. This is despite putting a chart up on my wall… I’m only at nine hours, leaving sixteen to do in five days. I don’t think I am going to make it, but at least it has been nine good hours so far; I am over $20 per hour, though I have been running pretty good.

Sadly, it looks like I am going to have to take a large chunk out of my bankroll this week, with my trip to the World Snooker championships coming up; train fare, hotel, spending money. It is a real shame, as I have built it nicely over the last couple of months and have four figures in there for the first time in months. This sets back my long-term plans to build the roll, move up a little in size of game, and ultimately consider quitting work or at least going part-time.

Mean Gene wrote a little about ‘The Cook, The Thief, His Wife and Her Lover’ on Sunday, a Peter Greenaway film. It was an amusing post, as he strongly advised never to have a first date at that movie - and that’s exactly what I did, about ten years ago. It was with the beautiful Danish girl who has remained a good friend all these years later, and the movie was her choice. I quite liked it, but the soundtrack is more worth a listen than the movie a viewing.

This reminds me that I once went to see ‘Seven’ with a fairly new girlfriend, on Valentine’s Day! Again, it was her choice and not mine. What a nasty - and reasonable but over-rated - film.

PS There are four large ads for Party Poker in Britain’s biggest-selling daily newspaper today.