Sit and go thoughts

Okay, this is a post on sit and goes that I wrote two or three weeks ago. I have progressed since writing this, but want to put things in sequence:

I am becoming really rather fascinated by sit and goes. I do believe they provide a ton of positive expectation, and I find them quite fun (exciting, even).

My results playing the sets of three have not been brilliant so far - indeed, my return on investment is a very disappointing 9% (excluding rake back). However, I kid myself/am convinced (delete as applicable) that I have run pretty bad, going out repeatedly with dominating hands. At present, my sample size is so small that even just turning two horribly unlucky second places into victories would tansform the ROI into a more acceptable 21%.

I had an interesting situation recently, with five players remaining. Three of us went all-in on the flop (me last) creating a pot of over half the chips. My second pair and flush draw were up against top pair and an unimproved AK. I was 43% to win and go into the last three with more than half the chips on the table. On top of that, if the unimproved AK hadn’t rivered a gutshot straight (he played the hand abysmally) then I would still have taken the side pot, and had a playable stack with four left.

The maths, equity, permutations of these kinds of pots fascinate me. Certainly I’d love to be in that situation in every sit and go I ever played, if you’re offering…

- 43% of the time I am in the money with a big chip lead

37% of the time I am in the last four with a workable stack

20% of the time I am out

Or, I could have just folded on that flop and been in the last four with OK chips, every time. No, not every time, just every time the lousy AK hit. Otherwise there are still five left and I have just OK chips. I am quite sure I did the right thing, but comments would be great.

Meanwhile, I intend to step a gear and play sets of four from now on. I have gotten used to three at once pretty easily, and don’t envisage any difficulties adding one more. I guess if I ever money in all four then it might get tricky, but I’m not expecting or budgeting for that!

Invariably I will be out of one (or two) before we get down to five players, and there is usually at least one table with a couple of real slowcoach players, so the decisions don’t come around unbearably quickly. I don’t think I could cope with Pokernerd’s EIGHT games at once, mind you, and not just because I am on a laptop. Actually, some of Nerd’s writing has made a difference to my sit and go game recently - he makes a lot of sense. Also, honestly, reading of his recent ups and downs has helped me retain faith in my approach in the face of that ugly 9% ROI.

If there’s one thing I am examining at the moment, its my bubble play. Usually, I am playing to win from an early stage; trying to amass chips such that from five left I will coast into the money with a good - if not dominant - stack and strong chance of first place. However, I think I am pushing this idea too far if I get down to the bubble with only small to middling chips. I’m going out in fourth too often in those circumstances, shooting for a double through, when I may have to accept that in that scenario limping into third is not such a bad thing.