Don't take your foot off the hose

So much for ‘The Dream’.

Since having a small winning day on Saturday, I have recorded 8 losses in 9 games, for a total loss of almost $300. This is shocking. To all those mathematicians, statisticians and probabiliticans who say that the outcome of hand doesn’t affect the outcome of the next, I say ‘Bollocks!’

My results never seem to follow a pattern of win, win, lose, win, lose, win, win, win, lose, lose, win and so on. It is always win win win win win, then a switch is flicked and it is lose lose lose lose lose. Don’t tell me that streaks don’t exist.

Okay, okay, I know I’m talking nonsense of some kind or another. But this does always happen; I can go hour upon hour without suffering a bad beat, and then they suddenly come in a big rush, like water backed up in a blocked hose. And I get drenched.

I may not have made the greatest game selection decisions over the last two nights. I played heads-up PLO (as discussed last time) and took a battering, even against the same player I beat previously. And last night, because I couldn’t find a game in ANY of my favourites, I sat in $50 No Limit Hold ‘Em. And I took another battering, $100 in less than two hours.

That was a weird game. Nobody would bet, nobody would raise more than one big blind pre-flop (except me), nobody appeared to bluff (except me), and nobody would actually bet their hand either, apart from the smallest possible bet size.

I couldn’t work it out at all, and it took me a little too long to realise that everybody wanted to slow-play to the nth degree, which cost me a few bucks.

Besides all that, I couldn’t get a break. My top two pair on the river made a ridiculous straight for a guy calling my bets with a total of six outs. And when I went all-in with JJ on a 567 (two spades) flop, hoping to get called by a draw or top pair or something, I got called by a guy with the spade draw and a gutshot. That actually made him a marginal favourite, so fair play to him; but losing coin tosses is even less fun when you then go onto Omaha and lose as a 9 to 1 favourite after monster raising the turn.

In short, its been rubbish rubbish rubbish. I don’t think I have played badly, but I shouldn’t have sat in the Hold ‘Em game and should have left it sooner.

I need a win desperately, but I must avoid my old habit of trying to ‘manufacture’ a win. Just keep playing, dude.

My ex is in town at the weekend. I will see her at a party Saturday night and then we should be spending most of Sunday together. I can’t wait to see her.