Getting cocky

Advance warning: this promises to be a rather mundane, poker-content type of post. Basically, I got murdered last night, for a total of $130.

In the PLO game I think I fell foul of over-confidence. I have had a pattern in the past of winning hand-over-fist for several weeks, then starting to believe that I was good enough to play all sorts of stupid cards and push edges that didn’t exist. Result: blowback of most (sometimes all) the carefully accrued profits.

I cannot afford to let last night signal the beginning of another period like that. Instead I must ensure that it serves as a warning sign.

At the same time, the stats last night showed only 6% hands won, where I usually show 10% or more, so it was not a good session for cards. My bluffs and semi-bluffs weren't taking down as many pots as usual, and I wasn't hitting my rivers.

But I made a lot of mistakes, including a very stupid $35 all-in which was simply doomed to failure. Essentially, I felt the table boasted a number of poor opponents so I could outplay them, and I got a bit carried away with this idea. I called a few too many raises for a start, and played mediocre hands out of position. In fact, the way I ‘outplay’ my opponents is usually simply by playing tighter both preflop and post-flop, overall. Yes I will frequently play goofy hands with raises in late position for various reasons. But generally I play fewer hands than my opponents, and am more circumspect with them post-flop, eg. I don’t get wedded to a non-nut flush draw, or bottom end of a straight, or bottom set, or bottom two pair, and so on.

So, I must nip this in the bud and get back on track. I had a tendency last night to feel that I had been winning hand over fist for the last few sessions, and tried to recreate that rather than letting it happen naturally through good solid play. In fact, a gentle, unspectacular win of, say, thirty dollars, would (a) have been perfectly acceptable and in line with my longer term expectations and (b) have been a damn f***ing sight better than losing well over a hundred!

Anyways, I also played a $15 multi-table tourney. I cashed (just about) in two of these in a row recently and intend to write about my views on ‘em at some point. But last night was a 201-runner affair, paying 20, and I went out 28th. It was a peculiar ride, which is the only reason I will bother writing about it.

My first table had more than one all-in merchant, one of whom went all-in with KQd on the very first hand, got called by A9o and won. I’m not entirely sure who made the worse move there. I got fed up with that guy and called him with AQs. He flipped pocket Queens and I rivered an Ace. Not too long later I got a bit cute/stupid. Noting that he would not generally re-raise from his blinds, I raised with …er… 47c. By the turn I had an open-ender and four-flush, called his all-in bet because I couldn’t necessarily put him on even a pair, and rivered the club flush.

Reasonably healthy in chips, I was pleased to get moved to a table with smaller stacks on it at the break, where I could probably make some moves without risking my whole stack. Sadly I was card-dead and could only stay at more or less the same level of chips, while failing to get any action when I did receive Aces up front.

Then I got caught trying to steal the blinds with A9o. Although every preflop raise was taking the pot at this stage, I was probably in too early a position for it. Got called by a guy with JJ, which left me crippled. He then chose to mock my play, which is not something I am accustomed to.

Now I was crippled with 55 chips, blinds of 300-600 and about four hands until my blind. JQ , one fold, and QQ later and I had 2600 and was sticking it all-in with Q9. The only caller had J8c and suddenly I have a 60 percent shot at owning a moderate stack that should see me cruise into the money. But he made his flush, aimed a verbal dig at me, and I shook my head in bemusement all the way to bed.

Frankly,at that stage of the tournament (30 left with 20 paid) I was in a quandary. My stack was around 23rd in size, but under no immediate blinds pressure, and only one double-through from being genuinely workable. I go along with all the accepted tournament wisdom of going for the big win, so I wanted to get chips and not get blinded down to a genuinely small stack. I also figured that with the bubble approaching it was a good time to attempt steals.

On the OTHER hand, I was in a position where I could most likely have folded my way into the money whilst waiting for a genuine double-through opportunity: the fact that I got QQ within a couple of hands of my ill-fated Ace-Nine underlines that feeling.

I think with hindsight that I had enjoyed my share of luck getting that far, and should have been happy to get into the money before starting to throw my chips in. I was on the last three tables from 200 players, having seen AQ twice and only one pocket pair, albeit a pair of rockets. Given the poor evening of Omaha, another cash, even a small one, would have done wonders for my confidence and my mood, and I believe that is important.

Instead, I have been dwelling quite a bit today on last night’s losses. I will be going home later, intent on a long session, but without the inner feeling of confidence and invincibility that has warmed me lately. However, given that my cash-game loss was borne partly from overconfidence, that may not be a bad thing.

I’ll be tightening up tonight, without losing the ability to raise some deceptive hands, and I will accept a win no matter how small.