Double Through

It's my fucking blog, alright?

2010-05-20T23:05:00.002+01:00

So I will moan about running bad as much as I want.

I've had an utterly hideous six months, which is pretty much why I haven't posted. I really hate to post bad beat whines, but frankly I need the catharsis right now.

I've 'enjoyed' a marginally profitable May so far, but it's still been a shitstorm of such proportions that I can only shake my head when I ponder where my ROI would be right now if I wasn't getting absolutely arse-fucked on the bubble three-quarters of the times I get that far. NOT bubbling has always been a strength of mine, but there ain't much you can do when three-hand sequences of rivers with proabilities in the 500-1 sort of range are cropping up with the regularity of fucking nail salons.

My speciality continues to be the spectacular feat of losing the one hand that will give me a monster stack, invariably either on the bubble or in the minimum-cash position. I just got crippled in just this manner when my Ace-Ten lost to a re-raised Queen-Ten; a Queen-Ten re-raised by the type of goober who had failed to notice that (surprisingly, given my style these days) I hadn't shown down a single hand worse than Ace-Jack in the entire tournament, all of which was spent at the same table as him. Or her. Or it.

Bubbling with AA versus a dreadful caller with 77, despite flopping an Ace, was another peach just yesterday.

Quite simply, I believe I am playing better than I ever have - yet those huge ROI days of last year have never seemed further away. I fucking OWNED the tourney I just mini-cashed in, and it all crashes down when my dominating hand gets runner-runner-one-card-flushed. Hold 'Em is the stupidest fucking form of poker ever invented.

Thanks for reading!

Probability Universe warp-drive

2009-10-30T21:09:00.002Z

I righted the ship just a little in the sit and goes, with two 4ths and a 2nd in the last eight attempts, going out in those 4th places (and hence making a significant difference to my ROI) as a 71 and 72 percent favourite - just to ensure I didn't get any silly ideas about running good. The ROI is in the black for the month but it's pitiful and I'm not happy.

I took a little detour into 'double or nothing' turboes, with the aim of just adding to the bankroll in an easy, relatively stress- and swing-free manner. That was going swimmingly until I hit an absolutely astonishing run two days ago, going 2-12. This felt like I was bravely exploring the very limits of possibility/probability. It did include running TT into QQ, TT into KK, KK into AA three times (in fourteen tourneys, remember) and not winning even one of those confrontations despite hitting my set twice.

Saddling back up, I then went on a run of ten straight cashes, slingshotting across the probability universe like some kind of sci-fi warp-drive spaceship, all the way out to the opposite edge.

All very bizarre. Rounding off this 'double or nothing' saga, I just went out of one in a pre-flop all-in as a 93% favourite to win. I only mention this because I actually didn't know you could be a 93% favourite pre-flop in Hold 'Em. I thought the maximum was just shy of 90%.

Horrible, hideous Hondo

2009-10-26T17:42:00.002Z

Unless you live somewhere near New York City - and probably even if you do - you are likely unaware of the existence of NY Post "football handicapper" Hondo. Lucky you.

I grit my teeth and purchase a copy of that tawdry newspaper every Friday during the NFL season because I enjoy seeing what picks the paper's dozen or so writers come up with. If I've had a bad week it's invariably comforting to see that these professional sports journalists know as much about picking NFL winners as a deaf, blindfolded seahorse who lives in the ocean and is not even aware of the existence of football and besides, he prefers baseball when push comes to shove.

But Hondo is a special case. He's more dislikeable than a chilli-sauce-covered cocktail stick that has somehow punctured your eyeball. He gives you no clue how he arrives at his picks (though it appears most likely to be via the medium of a sophisticated 'Wrong-O-Tron' machine), which at least saves him the embarrassment of exposing his pitiful reasoning. Instead, almost every hopeless pick is accompanied by a brief attempt at a humourous comment or joke about current events or public figures. These range from hinting that Barney Frank is a Packers fan ("Fudge-packer", heh heh, geddit???) to calling a young woman embroiled in a public affair a "dog" because her looks don't match Hondo's expectations of what a bitch should look like. No doubt Hondo himself is an immaculate physical specimen - drooling dimwit guys who spend all day watching sports invariably are, yeah?

If any of Mr H's comments were even a little bit imaginative or funny then the whole schtick could actually be quite enjoyable; the kind of defiant, semi-ironically-macho, sexist, 'two-fingers-to-the-intellectuals' bit of fun that Hondo probably erroneously imagines it actually is. For all my political sympathy with Keith Olbermann, I can see what a great target he is for satire - but the best that Hondo can do (sadly I forget the exact words but trust me, I'm not selling Hondo short) is call Olbermann a poopy-pants. Hello Oscar fucking Wilde.

So, the only thing that's remotely enjoyable about reading the shower of shit that this idiot spews out is the schadenfraude of seeing him turn in heavy losing weeks with the regularity of a gold-plated, diamond-encrusted metronome. This week he stands at a losstastic 2-9-1 with the Monday night game left to play.

Keep it up Hondo, you make my heart sing by proving that absolute fuckwits don't always prosper.

Sickness worsens (blogging bad beats LIVE)

2009-10-19T22:04:00.003+01:00

18-seat tournament, round one. I call a tilty all-in from a short-stack with 500 chips, I have my starting stack of 1500. I have AT versus J3 offsuit. 65% favourite to move to a 2100 stack at opening blinds of 10/20.Flop gives me a ten. Turn and river make him a one card flush to his 3 of diamonds.

I get some chips back with AJs versus some rubbish from a reeally short-stack. Then I have JJ versus T8 on a 4583 board on the turn, get it all-in. 89% favourite versus five outs, to go 2600 chips at 15/30 blinds. River is one of the five outs.

Moments later, in my 27-seater tourney, I'm 63% favourite all-in on the turn with two pair. Win the hand and I go chip leader with 3600 chips at the 25/50 level. I lose the hand.

65%, 89%, 63%. I'm just asking to win one of them. Just to win one hand, as significant or overwhelming favourite, when significant chips are on the line.

It's official...

2009-10-19T04:47:00.003+01:00

...I'm definitely running bad. It's only a small stretch, I'm still up for the month, but my ROI is getting eaten down to sub 30% for October thanks to a spectacular run of tourneys motoring toward the money then getting punked in a hand that would put me monster chip-leader, chip-leader, or among the top handful of stacks at the least.

The worst of these have been three-outers, where I'm 85% favourite or thereabouts, which is obviously monumentally frustrating and has happened three times in the past seven tournaments. Others have been the more standard 60% favourite type of thing, with some mind-boggling calls from my opponents factored into the irritation of these situations.

I have to keep on keeping on, obviously. This is the first remotely significant bad run I've had at these 18 and 27 seater sngs. Overall results are fantastic, overall ROI is crazy. I genuinely don't think this is a 'correction' of some kind. I've obviously taken bad beats throughout my very successful 'career' at these tourneys - the difference at present is that it keeps happening on pretty much the key hand of each game, the one that should pretty much see me sailing into the money if I win it. That really fucks me off. When it happens early, I can live with it quite easily; "At least I didn't spend long in that tourney, pull up another".

It's time to avoid a results focus and keep putting in my volume. The profits will come. End self-coaching session.

Playing Well, Send More Money

2009-10-14T23:31:00.004+01:00

Failed to post my NFL bets last week. For reference, I was on the 49ers for 10 pts, Browns for 5 pts, Patriots/Broncos UNDER for 5 pts and Houston on the money line for 3 pts. These went 2-2 and continued my trend this season whereby if I took out my biggest bet each weekend I would be reasonably well in the black. It would be enough to make me switch to level-stakes betting, if I didn't think that was completely ridiculous.

Ridiculous? Sure. If you were betting against a random Hold 'Em hand, wouldn't you bet more if you had KK than if you had 6-8 suited? You'd be a fool not to, and I see sports betting the same way. If I'm convinced that a particular game or line is of more value than another, then I should bet more upon it. The crux of the game (the betting game, not the sport itself!) lays in how good one's judgement of that value is. Thus far this season, mine isn't good enough.

Poker-wise, I couldn't be playing too much better than I am, yet I've had a downswing of only two cashes in the last thirteen SNGs (remember, these are 18- and 27-seaters) and am at only 39% ROI for the month, which is very much the lowest end of my expectation as far as I'm concerned. The pattern just recently is as follows:

1. I cruise towards the final table without showing down a hand. This is both good and bad; good because I'm obviously picking my spots well, bad because it means I've never managed a double-up or a decent-sized showdown win.

and then

2. I play my first all-in hand and lose as a 65 or 70% favourite, either crippling me or actually knocking me out. Today's were AK versus A2-suited, and 66 versus K5. Both 70% favourites, to save you looking. Yeah, like you were going to, I know.

The alternative wrinkle has been to get in a big showdown on a flop early in the tournament as huge favourite, say 85%, lose and be crippled rather than have the kind of enormous early stack that I almost always can wield effectively into the money.

Such is life, I'm not concerned. I'm playing higher than last month and finding very little difference in quality. There might be a couple of better players per tournament than before, but the number of absolute, total, complete, utter eggs is still fantastic. And I'd have taken 40% ROI at this new level if offered it two weeks ago - it's just that I've now seen that I should expect to do somewhat better than that.

Finally, I'm reading Victoria Coren's 'For Richer, For Poorer'. It's excellent. She is funny and a very good writer, and she'd have to be in order for me to admit it, because I have an inbuilt "NEPOTISM!!" reaction to any child of a media person who then pops up in the media him/herself. But an unexpected delight has been coming across so many people in the book who I know on some tiny level. Not 'know', but have seen, met, played poker with, if only briefly during a period when I played in London a little bit in the early years of this century. Barny Boatman, Joe Beevers, Jac Arama, these are somewhat poker 'names', but then there's Pedro... I butchered AK against him in a charity tournament in which I had no clue what I was doing.

Okay, that's enough. Back to the grind and getting that ROI back up to 50% and higher...

NFL Week Four

2009-10-04T05:42:00.002+01:00

Poker-wise, I only managed 60 SNGs in my span of 5th-30th September, against a target of 130. Not good. But - as looked nailed on when I last posted - I finished slightly ahead of my profit target, thanks to a superb ROI of 80%. I'm now moving a little higher in stakes, simply to increase the volume.

NFL-wise, last week I made a profit. Better than I showed here, as I also ended up siding with the Giants (beat the spread by about 16 points), the Broncos (covered the spread by about 18 points), and the Cardinals (got blown out).

Without further ado, here are this week's selections:

Buffalo -1 @ Miami - 8 point bet
Why? Three reasons for this pick. First, I marked the Dolphins down as a team to oppose pretty much all season in any remotely difficult spot. Their inflated rating from last year is probably all gone now at 0-3, but this just became a very difficult spot indeed with the loss of Chad Pennington. That's reason number two; for all those who knock Pennington, I just don't buy that Miami won't suffer offensively in going from accurate ten-year veteran QB to Chad Henne starting his first NFL game. I also have a suspicion that they'll try go more vertical at times, leading to more risks and probably more mistakes. Reason three concerns Miami's so-far sieve-like secondary trying to prevent Evans and Owens making some big gains.
What could go wrong? Buffalo's starting safeties both being out is a worry, and they've given up an alarming number of sacks thus far. Hope Porter's out.
Bills 27 - 14 Dolphins

St Louis +9.5 @ San Francisco - 8 point bet
Why? The Rams will presumably look to shorten this game with plenty of running, one thing (the only thing?!) they've been quite good at this season. They also should be able to prevent San Francisco running wild on offense, mainly because the 49ers don't appear to be able to do that. I expect this game to still be up for grabs entering the fourth quarter.
What could go wrong? Kyle Boller hasn't started in a while
Rams 20 - 21 49ers

Jacksonville +3 over Tennessee - 6 point bet
Why? It's quite hard to separate these teams statistically and we all know the kind of bruising game it's going to be, with both teams in danger of being in inescapable holes with a loss here. In the end, I find the points on the Jags impossible to resist given the Titan's problems returning kicks, making super-costly turnovers and travelling for a second week.
What could go wrong? Rob Bironas kicks a last-second 54-yard field goal to win?
Jags 17 - 14 Titans

Chicago -9.5 over Detroit - 6 point bet
Why? No danger of taking the Lions lightly after their win last week; Bears utterly on their mettle to record a division win. I expect them to get after QB Stafford and force some mistakes. I quite like the fact that this is a first outdoors and grass game for Detroit this season, for what it's worth, but the clincher for me is the presence of Rod Marinelli as Chicago assistant head coach/DL coach. For all the roster turnover at Detroit, I think he will still have inside track on enough of the Lions to ensure that this is a very comfortable home victory.
What could go wrong? Cutler turns it over too much, Lions eat clock
Bears 27 - 10 Detroit

Baltimore +2 @ New England - 5 point bet
Why? I had this down as the most obvious pick of the week initially, but on closer examination there isn't nearly as much between these two teams as you/I might think. Of course, it's always tricky to judge the merits of victories like the Ravens' over the likes of KC and Cleveland. In many ways, this looks like a rather similar matchup to Baltimore's trip to San Diego in week two; the Chargers haven't been terribly strong in run or pass offense, but Philip Rivers was able to pass for a ton of yards without getting it into the endzone. That sounds somewhat familiar to Pats fans this year. Given the closeness of that game at Qualcomm I was teetering on the edge of picking the Pats, but their passing game isn't nearly as effective as San Diego's yet this year. Ravens probably sneak it.
What could go wrong? Flacco off-day, Brady and co finally really click in the air
Baltimore 31 - 24 New England

Denver ML over Dallas - 5 point bet
Why? Everyone knows Denver have played bad teams, right? Well, Dallas opponents Tampa and Carolina say 'hi'. Both these teams can run the ball; Denver appear better at stopping the run. Romo is the big name; Orton is the guy not making mistakes. Denver are at home, Dallas are on the road off a Monday night game. I admit I'd rather be betting the Broncos with the +3 points they're getting, but my book has shaved the odds too much there so I'll take the money line (2.15) in a game where I make the home team the favourite.
What could go wrong? Orton coughs up his first INT of the season?
Denver 20 - 17 Dallas

New Orleans -7 over NY Jets - 4 point bet
Why? What you're not reading about the Jets: If New England had capitalised at all on complete first half dominance they'd have beaten the Jets... The most valuable player for the Jets in their tight win over Tennessee was the visitors' return man Mouton - he handed them the ball on the Titans' own 19-yard line and 23-yard line... Mark Sanchez has fumbled the ball four times in three weeks. It's hard to imagine that the Saints in their noisy dome, looking to go 4-0 into their bye week, will co-operate in the NFL's apparent mission to make the New Jersey team appear much better than they actually are. Jets might ultimately be benefitted by going into two division games after this with just a little less cockiness.
What could go wrong? Every bounce of the ball could continue to go Jets way
New Orleans 27 - 13 NY Jets

Bullseye

2009-09-26T05:17:00.002+01:00

I've hit the profit target I set myself for playing 130 SNG's by the end of September, having played exactly 50 of them. This is both highly gratifying (kaching! I'm awesome!) and slightly galling (damn, I'm lazy and don't put the volume in). Though there is the factor that the better you do, the fewer you necessarily play since you're in them for the full hour and a half so often.

Last ten results: 13 3 7 2 13 11 3 13 1 1

I ran like God at the final tables in winning those last two, frankly. Or at least one of them, where KK>AA, J5>JQ, 79s>QQ and so on. I was delighted to win with the Aces versus Kings as it was my fifth sickening time running KK into AA this week and so I was 'due' the 20% underdog win.

Clearly I am much better at LOLDonkaments than I am at NFL betting, for the time being. I hope you didn't bet last week's selections. I went 3-6 although I then ended up backing the Colts at Miami on Monday night as part of my oppose Miami strategy for this season.

For what it's worth, here are this week's picks so far:

Seattle +2.5 over Chicago
Many see this as Jay Cutler versus Seneca Wallace and immediately chalk this up for the Bears. Of course football isn't simply about quarterbacks going mano a mano but if it were, did you realise that these two have almost identical passer ratings, with similar win-loss records Wallace ahead on TD-INT ratio? The Seahawks injury problems are a worry, but I'm hoping the Bears are still who Denis Green thought they were...
4 pt bet

Cincinnatti +4 over Pittsburgh
Cincy never lack motication for this game, with an endless streak of Steeler wins here that they'd love to end. Now they have Palmer fit again and enough defense to give themselves a real chance.
4 pt bet

Philadelphia -8.5 over Kansas City
Rarely one to back TD+ favourites, I find myself doing it for the second straigh tweek. The biggest worry here is the possible absence of Westbrook for Philly, but outside of that all McNabb's absence does is create value on the Eagles. KC have had to prepare for up to four QBs, but Philadelphia figures to win this game first and foremost through defense. When looking for a reason to back the Chiefs, bear in mind that their socre at Baltimore was deceptive and they contrived to lose to Oakland partly through some dreadful coaching decisions. I smell a blowout here, and cornerbacks Samuel and Hobbs being mucho familiar with Matt Cassell only strengthens that feeling.
5 pt bet

Tennessee +5 at NY Jets
This game has gone from a low-priority banana skin on the Titans schedule to almost a must-win - with added revenge motivation for Tennessee. Thankfully they face a probably over-rated Jets team who've yet to oppose a powerful running game or run defense, or see their rookie QB under much pressure. That all figures to be different this week and so I take the points in a probably close game.
5 pt bet

San Diego -6 over Miami
I'm opposing Miami in almost any remotely difficult spot, and traversing the continent off a short week to play the Chargers definitely counts. The Chargers' injuries are a concern, but Miami just lost to another good passing attack despite doing just about everything right on offense. That's not enough margin for error this Sunday with higher priority division games coming next.
6 pt bet

There will probably be a couple more picks added tomorrow, if you're a glutton for punishment, and I haven't even assessed the over/unders yet, where I actually went 2-0 last week.

Pundits talk piffle

2009-09-19T03:48:00.003+01:00

Here are this week's NFL bets, and frankly I'm amazed again at how many games I'm getting involved with. Stakes are generally smaller this week; I don't see any monster standout can't-lose locks like we had last week with, uh, Cincinnati over Denver.

SEATTLE +2 @ San Francisco
The 49ers are quickly becoming a media-darling team, what in UK racing parlance is known as 'a talking horse'. Talking horses are often worth opposing, especially against strong oposition looking to return to divisional pre-eminence after a nightmarish, injury-destroyed season. Seattle will slap San Francisco down.
6 point bet

Oakland @ Kansas City UNDER 38 points
I just can't see this game being anything other than a runrunrun-fest. The total has surprisingly moved up half a point since I got on, which I assume must be due to the increased likelihood of Matt Cassell playing. I like Cassell but I don't think whoever plays QB for KC is going to make much difference to the overall nature of this game. FWIW thunderstorms are predicted in the PM.
5 point bet

CAROLINA +6.5 @ Atlanta
You can read my rant about NFL pundits, following these picks, for more details on one reason I am opposing Atlanta here - namely that their win over Miami was nothing special. Besides that, I don't see Jake Del'Homme (sp?) being put under the same pressure this week as last by either this opposition, or his own team's gameplan. Coming off a horrible home loss Carolina can be expected to play this division game very tough, plenty of hard running, and I think they have a fair chance of winning the game.
4 point bet

DALLAS -2.5 over NYG
Did you know that the Giants lost only three of their eighteen fumbles last season? For all that they are a very good team, that kind of luck doesn't last forever - and more importantly, it helps inflate a team's rep a little. I'm not completely sold on Dallas after the way they gave up ground yards last week, but I certainly take the home advantage and a small handicap here.
4 point bet

JACKSONVILLE -3 over Arizona
For various reasons, I expect the Jags to bounce back strongly from last season's performance. I don't much like the Cardinals chances on this long non-conference trip.
3 point bet

TENNESSEE -6.5 over Houston
It really goes against the grain for me to bet on a big favourite after just one week of the season. Teams who've had a big wake-up call in a home loss, a la Houston, can be dangerous. However, the Titans have had a long week, are a fearsome team and want this division win very badly. The Texans couldn't cope with the Jets defense last week, and this looks like a deja vu defeat for them.
3 point bet

Minnesota @ Detroit UNDER 46.5
I'm struggling to come up with many likely scenarios in which this game produces a ton of points. Perhaps the Lions rookie QB throws a couple of interceptions inside his own half. Perhaps there's a huge punt return. But on balance the most likely outcome seems to be a trench war, slowly and inexorably won by the Vikings, who then close out the clock and the game. Caveat: I've so far sucked at picking over/unders.
3 point bet

WASHINGTON -9.5 over St. Louis
I can't believe I just typed that out, let alone actually have put money on it already. Never before have I supported a near ten-point favourite. However, I think Washington bear comparison in many ways with Seattle on both sides of the ball and the Rams lost 28-nothing at Seattle despite being plus two on turnovers. Furthermore you'd need to use a cluster of super-computers to find two worse back-to-back road trips than Washington State followed by Washington DC.
2 point bet

CINCINNATI +8.5 @ Green Bay
You'd think last week would have put me off the Bengals, wouldn't you? Well I'm pissed off to have missed the 9 points they were being given earlier in the week, but I still think 8.5 is generous. The Packers defense is being talked about in hushed, reverent tones after one regular season game (no, pre-season doesn't count, at all) against an interception-prone QB making his first start with a new team. Call me crazy but I still believe Carson, Chad and co can put up points here and be in the hunt to win this game as it enters the last five minutes.
2 point bet

Okay, rant time. Pundits talk a lot of crap about the NFL, suggesting they haven't watched the game they are referring to or even bothered to look into the stats. Greg Rosenthal of NBC Sports confidently states that the Atlanta Falcons "put together one of the most impressive performances [of week 1] on both sides of the ball".

This glib assertion seems to be based on the fact that Atlanta led 19-0 near the end of the game. Let me make some counterpoints:

1. The Falcons won by just 12 points despite going +4 on turnovers.

2. They gained fewer yards per offensive play than Miami.

3. They allowed Miami to rush for 4.4 yards per carry, while their own running game mustered a pitiful 2.5 yards per try.

4. They didn't convert well in the red zone.

5. Miami started its drives on average at its own 20, the Falcons started on average at the 47 and lest you think this was down to great field position work, Atlanta punted for markedly fewer gross and net yards than the Dolphins as well.

Does ANY of that sound like one of the most impressive week one performances on both sides of the ball? This game was decided almost entirely by the four Miami turnovers. Now Miami are due some turnover woes this year, which is precisely why I backed Atlanta to win that game... but if you start basing your impression of a team and its performances on the kind of glib, know-nothing crap that Greg produced here then you are in big trouble if you want to win money betting betting for or against that team.

By the way, Greg mentions that the Falcons led 19-0 near the end of the game 'despite missing kicks'. They did indeed miss two field goals, from reasonable range - PLUS an extra point. That just makes me even warier of the Falcons for betting purposes; they now need to prove that they can make routine kicks to put points on the board when they don't get into the endzone.

If you're betting, look into the games for yourself, don't rely in the slightest on throwaway comments from people whose position you would imagine allows them to look into the sport more closely than you; quite obviously they simply don't bother.

Consistency

2009-09-16T05:12:00.003+01:00

I'm not going to get close to my target of 130 18-man or 27-man SNGs by the end of the month. However, I have a good chance of making the amount of money that the target was based upon, as my consistency and ROI have been spectacular.

I'm under no illusions that the 70%+ ROI I'm showing in this targeted spell can be sustained over any large sample. However, it isn't soooo far from my total performance as to be utterly ridiculous; while I've cashed in 8 of my last 19, that's included an unusual rash of low cashes and bubbles. Those have featured a KKvAA sickener and a couple of losses of monster pots (as favourite) that would have sent me cruising to the headsup.

This isn't intended as bragging, I just think it's important that I record my success just as I record my failures and bad beats. It also helps to put it all down in black and white and realise that it's frankly ridiculous that I haven't moved up in stakes yet. Have been toying with the idea of adding more tables (I typically only play two at once) but I'm quite sure I'd see more of a dropoff in ROI that way than if I simply stepped up a level. I don't play these on auto-pilot in the manner of most multi-tablers, so I need to pay attention.

You might also ask why I'm bothering with the 18-man games, given the disparity in profit with the 27s. I would have answered that it's easier to go on a run of no cashes with the larger field, so the 18's help keep me positive in case that happens. Yet I see now that I have longer runs without cashing in those, too. They probably have to go.

I'm also champing at the bit to play some larger (in field size) MTTs. The last one I played, I finished about 80th out of nearly 8,000 entrants and had a blast. But, as ever, I simply don't have the opportunity to play for four, five, eight hours straight very often.

NFL wrap-up

2009-09-14T18:22:00.002+01:00

Barring any last-minute action-junkie bets, which thankfully are not my style, that's NFL week one in the books.

If you followed my advice you made a little over 2.5 points profit on rather a lot of turnover. On the other hand, if you took the additional advice to ignore my over/under bets then you made almost 15 points at about 27% ROI. I was 5-2 betting on teams (which is excellent) and 0-3 betting on totals (which is... well, you know).

I can't cure myself of this banging-my-head-against-a-wall conviction that I can get under/overs right eventually, but will scale the size of those bets back even further unless or until that actually starts to happen.

Week two looks like yielding fewer picks, nothing jumps out and smacks me in the face. Initial games of interest may be Jacksonville over Arizona and San Diego over Baltimore, but I have hours of intensive analysis to perform before sharing the gold-dust with you....

Splurging

2009-09-11T16:53:00.004+01:00

I find it hard to believe I'm betting so many games on the opening weekend of the NFL season. With teams' fortunes often changing dramatically from one season to the next, what am I thinking? Oh well, I'm full of piss and vinegar and hopefully my buccaneering success with this new attitude in poker will translate to betting.

Here are four additions to the already lengthy slate of bets from yesterday:

JAGUARS at Colts +7 I think the Jags will bounce back from last season's let-down. One of their five wins last season came at this stadium, although I'll grant that the Colts were finding their feet in their new home (gee, it was tough not having the piped-in crowd noise any more) and Manning started the season rusty. Even so, Jacksonville know what it takes to play Sindy close and indeed to beat them.
FIVE POINT BET Result: Jacksonville lose but cover by 5

OVER THE TOTAL Dolphins at Falcons 43.5 What you have here is two teams that can pass the ball well, score pretty well in the red-zone and don't have great defenses, particularly against the pass. It's also a non-conference game and therefore a little less tense. Expect points.
FOUR POINT BET Result: only 26 points

UNDER THE TOTAL Redskins at Giants 37.5 No science here. Decent defenses, lots of running, typical NFC East slugging match yada yada yada. I've put more thought into it than that, honestly. But not much more, and I wish the rain and wind wasn't set to subside by Sunday. I'm getting buyer's remorse on this one.
FOUR POINT BET Result: Loss by 2.5 pts on TD with 1:42 remaining

UNDER THE TOTAL Vikings at Browns 40 The Vikings chew the clock by running the ball but aren't great at getting the ball into the endzone. They defend well. Cleveland are likely to look a lot more like their 2008 selves than their successful 2007 model.
FOUR POINT BET Not even close, a hefty 54 points

There you go, follow my advice and win money - but probably best leave the under/overs alone.

National Football Leak

2009-09-10T21:43:00.003+01:00

I used to do very well betting on the NFL. Since moving to the States my results have declined year on year, which I think is a function of my being exposed to so much more 'expert analysis', so much information, so many opinions, so much hype and counter-hype. I've ended up conflicted over almost every game, no longer trusting in my own opinion and instincts when I've had those of Boomer Esaiason, Cris Collinsworth, the New York Post and its half-dozen 'handicappers', guys down the pub, guys on the radio, guys on the internet all babbling away.

It's ended up turning NFL betting into a small 'leak' compared to my awesome poker skillz.

This season it's going to be different. I'm shutting out all that crap, and utilising some new ideas and statistical angles from a rather spiffing book to go along with my own unpolluted judgements and gut feel. So without further ado, here are my bets for Week One of what might be the last great NFL season before the salary cap disaappears:

BENGALS over Broncos -4.5 This has mysteriously been bet down to a 4 point line since I backed it yesterday. I'm sure Denver won't be quite the disaster many people expect this season, but it's sure to take a little while for them to find their feet with a new head coach and other staff, new schemes, new quarterback, and a defense that needs a ton of improvement from last season. I think Kyle Orton is under-rated, but going into his first game in a new offense with a hand injury is hardly ideal. I am amazed that a team in this situation, going on the road to a Bengals team with a decent enough defense and the returning Carson Palmer, is only given four points.
TEN POINT MAX BET Result: Denver somehow pull off the upset

COWBOYS at Buccaneers -6 I'm not exactly brimming with confidence on this pick, I will admit. I was salivating when early lines had Dallas only -3 and couldn't stop myself still backing them at this more stringent line, once my betting account was loaded. That's mug behaviour to be honest, but I still expect Dallas to win the game handily. The Buccs, like Denver, are in overhaul-mode and this was exacerbated by a change of OC just weeks before the season - especially when the first act of the new OC has been to add a bunch more plays to the playbook with little time to bed them in. Tampa Bay are also on a downgrade at quarterback with Leftwich coming in. It's hard to like a slow-release QB against a sack-happy defense.
EIGHT POINT BET Result: Dallas cover by 7

VIKINGS at Browns -4 There is a pattern emerging here of my opposing teams with brand new coaching staff. While that's generally not a bad idea, this is another selection that I've gone off a little since placing the bet. I like the Vikings as a team a lot, but I can't help reflecting that they don't often win games by many points. Oh well, here's hoping that the Browns players already hate Mangini as much as I do and their defenders spend their time telling Favre how funny his new Sears ad is (and it is) rather than, say, intercepting him.
EIGHT POINT BET Result: Vikings cover by 10

EAGLES at Carolina -1 I'm backing rather too many road favourites here, am I not? Philly have been bet down to 2.5 point favourites since I got on, which is irrelevant but always satisfying. Carolina won all eight home games last year, if I remember correctly, but I ignore things like that and besides they can be reasonably expected to regress to the mean a little bit. I simply like the Eagles better as a team, and I have a sneaking suspicion that McNabb will be on fire with a desire to prove that the offense don't need no stinkin' Michael Vick gadget plays during the two weeks before Vick is eligible to play.
SEVEN POINT BET Result: Philly cover by 27!

HOUSTON over NY Jets -4 Once again, opposing the team with a coaching overhaul, new schemes and new (and rookie at that) quarterback. I feel a little more secure in adding to all that the fact that the Jets are on the road and Houston are generally pretty strong at home.
EIGHT POINT BET Result: Pitiful Houston lose outright

ATLANTA over Miami -4 This is pretty much a selection simply because I am going to be opposing Miami frequently this season, against almost any half-decent team.
EIGHT POINT BET Result: Atlanta cover by 8

So there you have it. Six games is rather a lot to bet, and I considered Jacksonville +7 at Indianapolis as well and still might have a small tickle on that. I'm also weighing up a couple of under/overs, but I have a terrible, terrible record on those. I'll keep you posted, yes both of you.

Twin Peak

2009-09-07T04:40:00.002+01:00

Aahhhh, that's better. I mentioned a little winless run in my earlier post (there was a minimum cash in there but those hardly count), and I've just broken out of it by winning a 27-seater and an 18-seater simultaneously. So simultanously that the final hand of each (A8>AJ in one of 'em) took place at the very same moment. Sweet.

It's not easy playing headsup on two tables at once. I'm sure the 12, 14, 20-tabling superfreaks can do it while MSN-ing and pissing in a bottle at the same time, but it's more challenging for the likes of me. Still, it does render you more emotionally detached from each game in isolation and that is usually helpful in decision-making.

I'm currently a shade over 45% ROI in these games. I like to think that's good, but I'm generally trying to steer clear of forums etc. I'm wary of finding myself reading strategy threads and then ending up tinkering with my game, when if anything I need to struggle to keep it simple and not start deviating from the basics that are serving me well.

Meanwhile, I'm wary of this blog being all poker-poker-poker. Unfortunately (ha!) my life is a lot more stable - and happy - than it used to be, which does seem to limit my material a bit. I'll try to step up the swearing in future entries.

Really boring entry with good quote at the end

2009-09-06T20:40:00.003+01:00

In an exciting development I just received my first ever "cheating victim credit" from Pokerstars. Really not exciting, it amounted to one sng buy-in for me, but it brings a warm glow to know that Stars are watching my back like kindly godparents.

I play too low in general to worry unduly about collaboration, although I've been suspicious a handful of times. I suspect this episode occurred during my recent tilt at one-table turbos. Time has been shorter than usual recently so even the two-table sngs that are my bread and butter have been out of the question (they generally take an hour and a half if you get to the end) so I played a ton of turbos. I enjoyed them immensely but my ROI plummeted from an early 25% to 8% by the end, scuppering any suspicions that the hourly might be better than in the two-table games.

I'm now planning to put in a ton (130 to be precise) of the two-tables by the end of the month. My ROI there remains very stable, fluctuating between 40 and 45 percent. The results in the 18 seaters and 27 seaters seem to rise and fall like two sides of a pair of scales, but the overall profit remains remarkably consistent. Having said that, I am on a little scoreless run right now - but it's just the usual story of losing the crucial flip in pursuit of a monster stack. Nothing to worry about.

I just recalled a really good poker quote I read somewhere:

"He who bets the most, wins - cards just break the ties".

Now I'm off to research turnover differentials in preparation for the NFL season.

I don't mean to be mean

2009-08-24T03:05:00.003+01:00

Don't worry, the three-week hiatus occurred simply because I was overseas for a little while. I flew back Business Class, which was very, very nice. I'd love to say I paid for that with poker winnings - or even Pokerstars points - but 'twas not the case. I just get upgraded quite often because I fly transatlantic more frequently than most.

So, time for me to make my mean post about that guy whose blog I really enjoy. I respect his intellect greatly - not something I say about many people at all - and have found out so many fascinating things from his blog. I now walk barefoot as much as possible, for instance.

However, his recent post on parenthood strikes me as the crappiest thing he's ever said. Apparently it is selfish and immature of those of us who read his blog - and are hence interesting/worthwhile/pleasant people - to choose not to have children.

I don't think it is worth me wasting much ink on the simple point that human society faces a very real danger of collapsing under the sheer weight of our extraordinary numbers, but this simple point certainly lurks in the background of everything else I might say.

I feel bad because I am about to say some things that will probably sound spiteful. They are not entirely intended that way, but I confess I am probably irritated enough by my childlessness being impugned to lash out a little.

So... not having children is immature? This assumes that one chooses not to have them because one wants to simply indulge oneself throughout life. This is a harsh assumption for which one can think of any number of counter examples, but I expect there is at least some truth in it for many of us childless wasters - including me. Of course, many great things may come from somebody indulging themselves through life, such as great creations or being a far better friend, sibling and son or daughter than most parents can be, because of the extra time one has available.

Still, is it actually immature to make a decision about how you wish to use your only lifetime? Choosing the tough path of childlessness, knowing you might come to regret it but deciding that there is enough you wish to learn, do, see, achieve, explore that you don't wish to be encumbered by parenting, seems to me a strong act. Never mind that you likely have to deal with all the pressures toward having kids from family (every parent wants to be a grandparent) and lovers or potential lovers.

There are lots of ways to be immature. For instance I consider it very immature to sport personalised numberplates or aesthetically awful hipster beards in order to communicate to everybody what kind of lifestyle you choose. It's childish like the teenager who finds it vitally important to wear a Nirvana t-shirt so that nobody on the street might think - god forbid! - that they're not an intelligent, stand-out-from-the-crowd, fascinating maverick who would never like a song by N*Sync or at least never admit to it. Yes, it's really cool and mature to make sure your appearance signals your outlook, values and likely interests to everybody who so much as lays eyes on you. The last thing you want is to have to waste time talking to people who are different to you and possibly not even intellectual - hell, what are you going to learn from that? And what could be more boring than someone who dresses conventionally (but looks good) and whose personality and lifestyle can only be discovered through conversation?

End of lame, dripping sarcasm.

I tend to describe having children as a vanity project. While this may be a harsh generalisation, it seems to apply perfectly well to an approach of having children in order to ensure that there are more people like oneself in the world. I think I am great (you already knew that) but I truly think an over-populated world (or any world really) can manage without me supplying another couple of tall, good-looking, intelligent, healthy, compassionate, strong-gened copies - which of course assumes in the first place that they didn't turn out bad. Yes I think highly of myself - but not that highly. Similarly, how much does a world heading towards 10 billion people really need another two or three under-sized, over-trustfunded physically frail tech geeks?

End of snidey snipey. I'll try to think of something interesting to say about poker next.

Feeble Cerebral

2009-07-31T20:43:00.002+01:00

The promised 'pissy swipe' post is coming, but for now something brief just to make sure I get into the habit of updating this thing regularly.

I'm an NFL nut (and gambler) and here and there I've seen new Detroit Lions coach Jim Schwartz described as 'cerebral'. Then I read this quote from him: "If I find an author - David Morrell, Mario Puzo, John Grisham or any guy I hear is good - I'll read everything he did. I don't read books by women. I've tried to, but their perspective is different, so I stick with what I like."

Still, he may indeed be cerebral within the ranks of NFL head coaches.

Guess Who's Back

2009-07-28T05:55:00.005+01:00

After a ridiculous hiatus, 89TJ is back.

I can't decide whether to do some kind of catch-up post or just let stuff filter through over time. I do know that this post will just be a rather shapeless piece of shit, but don't worry I will get back on form soon enough. I guess I missed the boat in terms of parlaying this blog into a life of 'freelance writing for the gaming industry' as so many of the old favourite bloggers seem to have done.

I now live in the States, which for a poker player snd sports bettor obviouslyabsolutelytotallyandcompletely sucks. I will never, ever get my head round how this nauseatingly self-proclaimed land of freedom will happily allow my greencarded ass to buy a gun but not to play online poker nor stick a few dollars on the Miami Dolphins to come crashing down to earth repeatedly this season.

Of course, I still do both these things anyway so why don't I just shut up and move to Russia or something, eh? Actually I like America a lot more than I expected, but this peculiar, mentally-ill-seeming attitude to gambling is one of the things I can't come to terms with at all.

Until recently I've been mired in poker mediocrity since I last wrote here in 2006. Different sites, different games, same array of false dawns and a general run of more or less break-even hell. Thankfully it hasn't been that important.

What has energised me to boot 'Double Through' up again is a move into playing almost exclusively in LOLdonkaments. I read the best poker book ever written recently and it has simply transformed my tournament game. I can't play in many proper full-on tourneys as I simply don't have the opportunity to sit four or five hours very often, so I'm generally playing two- or three-table sit and goes. I'm up around 40 percent ROI without running amazingly good or anything, which is very acceptable indeed in my eyes. A move up in stakes should be in the offing, but I'm not rushing anything.

Tonight I played a 45-seater, 27-seater and 18-seater. 20th in the 45-seater, where a 60% shot went down instead of putting me 9th in chips. A nicely-played 1st in the 18-seater. And - since it wouldn't be 'Double Through' without bad beat whining - an absolutely sickening cash in 4th place in the 27-seater. Four left, I get all-in on the flop versus a shortie and a guy with 400 chips more than me. I'm 86% favourite with top two pair only for the other two to share an unlikely runner-runner straight. Win the hand and I take the chip lead with three left and the third guy having less than 1BB. Monstrously profitable situation in theory, irritating mini-cash in practice.

I take these things a lot better now, though. I could say it's maturity, meditation, perspective, whatever, but really it's because I am winning hand over fist.

I read this entire blog from start to finish a few days ago (when I decided to resurrect it) and I have to say it was damn good. It made me laugh repeatedly and also made sense of something my wife said to me recently... I have a peculiarly strong affection for the erstwhile Ted Danson sitcom 'Becker', and when I wondered out loud why this should be the case, my wife pissed herself laughing and said "It's because you are Becker!". I couldn't see it at all, but re-reading some of my stuff here I had to reluctantly concede she has a point.

I'll be treading that path again in my next entry where I'll be taking a pissy shot at Patri Friedman (even though I really do enjoy his blog).

Hair's breadth

2006-06-12T19:21:00.000+01:00

Oops, that might have been the longest break in this blog's history.

Following on from last time, the PSP continues to amuse, and 'Football Manager' - which I picked up on my break back in England - is extremely good.

I had a good snooker world championships in betting terms, which is a good job because poker has followed my eternally frustrating pattern of long winning streak followed by insanely long losing streak. I've been experimenting with short-handed limit hold 'em lately, just a couple of 2-4 tables at a time. It's a fascinating/fast/stressful/funny/ludicrous game. The line between brilliant play and abysmal play seems to be a hair's breadth. I'm down about $800 after xx hours (can't remember, ask me again tomorrow).

The biggest reason I've been trying the short handed limit stuff is because it racks up rakeback much better than PLO8, where the button crawls round the table at about 4 orbits an hour half the time. It's pretty obvious that if I could be even a small winner at a decent limit, the rakeback would make it all nicely profitable.

Anyway, World Cup time and the tournament has started brightly. Still plenty of time for the sudden-death rounds to be cagey and negative and full of penalty shoot-outs though. I'm feeling good this afternoon, having backed the Czechs for the tournament at 40-1 and just seen them dismantle the USA 3-0.

I'm well-disposed to the Americans these days for personal reasons, and I reckon 3-0 was a bit harsh, but certain things were exposed. I think it might be time that the States got an experienced manager in from the more established football world... Today the tactical inflexibility once they went behind was very disappointing, and Bruce Arena's soporific demeanour on the touchline was very uninspiring. The States may have reached a plateau, and a grizzled old World Cup veteran like a Leo Beenhakker or Henri Michel might be able to get them to another level.

incidentally, again no personal axe to grind because it's really not that important, but today's game did expose the sham that is the FIFA rankings. USA are 4th or 5th in the world at present, supposedly, when at a very conservative estimate there are 13 or 14 teams in this World Cup alone that you would expect to beat them more often than not.

What do points make?

2006-03-28T19:46:00.000+01:00

Party's points incentive scheme is quite clever; there's nothing like dangling free shiny things in front of people to encourage them to use your product. I spent quite a quite while examining the scheme and working out how long it would take me to earn a PSP for my brother.

At the levels and amount of hands I play there it would take months and months and months, so I started doing sums to see how quickly I could get there if I switched from the site where I get rakeback until I had earned the requisite points. And then it dawned on me that if I did the exact opposite, I could just buy my brother a PSP with the extra rakeback. So that's what I'll do, and from the Party player's club I'll just have to settle for the occasional rain jacket - if I can bear to wear the logo.

Regarding PSPs - they are absolutely great. I'm addicted to 'Winning Eleven 9' ('Pro Evo' to my fellow Englishmen) on mine at the moment, and looking forward to picking up 'Football Manager' when I go back home in a couple of weeks. If - like me - you love video games, but go in fits and starts and don't fancy a console and all the wires hooked up around your TV, the PSP is absolute perfection.

Marooned

2006-03-05T06:27:00.000Z

I'm back to playing short handed limit hold 'em. It racks up points fast for a bonus I am working off, generates decent rakeback and has been going quite well.

Tonight though, has been monumentally frustrating. Had the archetypal doomed-to-lose maniac at one of my tables for two hours, and he proceeded to just take the piss out of me.

He hit four ridiculous rivers on me for a total of 50 big bets in pots. The dooziest was when he had capped it with me preflop with Q2. I had AA. He capped it on the turn with me with a board of 37A4. The river was a 5 and there went 25 big bets.

Obviously I managed to get plenty of pots and bets off him during the course of the session, by virtue of having the better hand. But that one ludicrous beat alone handed me my first losing session after a lovely stretch.

I read Matt 'the poker chronicles' Maroon's book this week. It was only $10 Canadian, incredible for a hardback. It's okay. Not bad. Readable. Far less eye-opening than I had hoped.

It was certainly fascinating to read it having been a long-time reader of Matt's blog though. Who would have thought he would thank God in the acknowledgements? Or come across as so pleasant and 'authorly'?? Actually, that was the most disappointing element of the book; it was hard to read the polite prose without missing the real Matt Maroon's voice. The words 'idiots' or 'monkey' didn't appear even once. There was no discussion of the sleazy benefits of trash-talking.

I'm always a little discomfited by people who are clearly acting. I know we all adjust our behaviour and tone to some extent in different circumstances, but I have never quite trusted or understood people who are completely different inside and outside work (for instance). So Matt mutating from scabrous, arrogant and irritatingly funny into mild-mannered, pressed-slacks, softly-spoken author made me feel slightly mistrustful that I was getting his real advice.

It also amused me that each chapter was headed with a quote, something he dismissed as 'the ultimate hack gimmick' just the other day.

Would I recommend the book? Well, I don't think I would stick it on eBay as I have done with a number of poker books. It's not bad, and $10 is a snip. It's definitely worth the asking price - just like this blog.

My Adoring Public

2006-02-20T00:09:00.000Z

Blimey, a comment, and not one that says 'Please check out my site about Peruvian wine trading'. It seems somebody is still reading after all. Heaven knows why.

Well, I remain convinced that I am one of the unluckiest people on earth when it comes to poker or anything similar, such as rolling dice. But I'm pretty lucky in life in general, so I try to soldier on. Besides, all my last whingeing post did was curse my cash play, since I made the idiotic fate-tempting mistake of saying that I was running okay in money games.

With a horrid week of cash play in the books (losing with top set is my new speciality), I'm playing quite low at the moment at Eurobet and just focussing on working off my 100% bonus there and chugging up the rakeback. They're a PokerRoom skin now, as if you didn't know. I've grown reasonably enamoured of the site; the software has irritations, but the customer base seems to be simply packed with appalling players, and they put on a decent number of PLO and PLO8 tournaments.

I've completely sacked Ladbrokes, at long last. I'm not sure why I didn't do that long ago. A relatively small core of players, including plenty of competent ones in my games of choice, and absolutely zero in the way of player incentives (the yearly pocket diary was never terribly useful to me).

Besides that, I'm diversifying... I've begun to spend some time getting to grips with exchange betting and trading. I still have a bit to learn about trading purely 'by the numbers', but in sports where I know something - soccer, snooker, american football - I've made some nice profits. The Superbowl and Probowl proved particularly easy to trade into profit regardless of the outcome.

I'm now suffering horrible, horrible NFL withdrawal symptoms. It's particularly bad because the season ended so disappointingly, with the mighty Patriots getting mugged in Denver and then the Superbowl being officiated in such a fishy manner. I'm not an outright conspiracy theorist, like an increasing number of NFL fans, but I do think that the officials called such a one-sided game due to subconsciously buying into the general vibe that the Steelers were 'supposed' to win.

Anyway, it sucks when the most important current NFL news is about the collective bargaining agreement. I really hope they can settle something, because the demise of the salary cap would be a sad day, in my eyes.

Litany

2006-02-14T05:27:00.000Z

I know nobody reads any more, which is fine as I have given up this blog and only use it to let off steam over my credulity-stretching bad fortune in tournaments.

Specials from the last 6 tourneys I've played:

NLHE: All-in preflop, we both have AK. No worries, the little extra from the folded hands all helps. Two hearts on the flop. I note with a sinking feeling that he has the Ace of Hearts, while I have the King. Heart on the turn, heart on the river, and my stack is decimated by what was a near 50-1 loss when the money went in.

NLHE: Cruising nicely towards the money, the flop is TQQ and we're all-in. I have TT for the house, he has Q9. River is the case Queen, goodnight.

PLO8: Out on the button with AA29 single suited, versus 6642. Not that big a beat, but the timing was just exquisite.

Thank fuck my cash PLO8 is going very smoothly indeed. It's dull, as I've tightened waaay up post-flop, but pretty easy pickings.

No change is the only constant

2006-01-22T06:17:00.000Z

New city, new country, new life.

Same old running bad.

I thought if anyone was ever still checking this tired old piece of shit blog, I'd - uh - reward them with more whining. I was inspired by a few seconds of wonderment that just took place; four outered for a nice big cash pot and three outered in an enormous tournament pot, simultaneously. The dude in the tourney called my turn raise (I had a fairly obvious straight) with King high - there was an Ace on board - and a gutshot.

The problem is, even with backing and supportive vibes, I am driven to seriously consider whether I can or should continue doing this. Five months of running bad means one of two things...

a) I am cursed
b) I am not running bad and am kidding myself

Save DoubleThrough!

2005-10-20T15:31:00.000+01:00

Eight days, and I will be gone from England. I may shut this blog down at that point too, though I haven't decided yet. Perhaps, like Star Trek, it will be reprieved when I receive numerous comments complaining about its axing.

So, what gives? Poker sucks. I have been a miserable failure in my first two months playing full-time, not least because I really haven't played FULL-TIME. Nowhere near enough hours. Also, running bad, making some mistakes, and generally finding it distinctly disappointing and frustrating thus far.

I've begun to enjoy tournaments a lot more than I used to, despite the frustration of getting close to making a good score but always losing that vital 60/40 shot. Its happened a couple of times this week when I had not even had to show down a hand - apart from a total lock - up to that point in the tournament. So, I am beginning to believe that I'm a half-decent tourney player. (At the lower levels filled with muppets, obviously...)

I'm not entering the big Pokerstars blogger tournament though. 1000+ players is way above my tolerance level, besides which I am refraining from opening any new poker accounts until I have moved. Its painful enough altering my details everywhere, without adding more tasks.

This means that, having emptied my Eurobet account as soon as Party shed its skins, I am having to bide my time to join Party directly and am meanwhile stuck with just one site, with no rakeback.

Man, what a boring entry. My other blog is so much more interesting. You can see why Doublethrough may have only a week to live...

My ship never comes in.. do I HAVE a ship?

2005-10-05T22:52:00.000+01:00

Interesting and ultimately irritating day's play.

Had a lovely session of PLO8 first; the usual story of people donating money to my nut hands. Sometimes wonder why I get tricky occasionally, when people are happy to do that no matter how tight they (could) see me playing.

At the same time, I missed the final table of the PLO tourney after five straight appearances. I gambled with 13 outs and missed.

Then a NLHE tourney, very rare for me but I fancied a change. 322 runners, and I came in 15th, having shown down precisely two hands in two and a half hours up to that point. I was pretty short-stacked and tried to steal with 9Ts. I was re-raised all-in and had to call (as I had known I would have to). He had AQc, making me 38 percent, but I couldn't buck the odds.

So, miss with 13 outs and a 38 percent shot all-in. Then I play some more PLO8 cash in the evening and got royally shafted when I completely outplayed a guy who called his entire stack on the turn with six outs. He obviously figured I had Ace-Two, as they so often do. I spent the next hour repeatedly asking him (I had drunk a beer or three) to wire the money back to me.

I am now off to Copenhagen for a few days... Scandinavia, home of over-aggressive luckbox poker players. I might punch one or two if I run into them.

A New Broom

2005-10-04T17:01:00.000+01:00

What else have I been doing besides making - and sometimes losing - money from other people's dumbass poker mistakes?

I won another sports bet, Manchester United at Fulham on Saturday. If you bet on football (soccer), you really ought to consider the Asian Handicap markets. Once you get the hang of the rules, it's a wonderful form of betting. I watched the game live, thanks to the local pub with its illegal satellite broadcast, and Man U were quite impressive, certainly in attack. Less so at the back, where Rio Ferdinand seemed to be in a daze. Still, Ryan Giggs was a joy to watch and I started reflecting on the reasons why I really ought to quite like Manchester United, despite all the ingrained hatred from their years of dominance and the cockiness that came with it.

Yes, despite the over-rated (and now past it) Keane, dislikeable Fergie, cocksure Manc fans and laughable Surrey Reds, there is much to like. They are and always have been an incessantly attacking side, and they have tended to field far more British players than most Premiership clubs. Saturday was no exception, with Fletcher, Ferdinand, Rooney, Smith, Giggs, O'Shea... and I think one other. And Scholes came off the bench too.

Anyway, what else have I been doing...? I bought a broom and a dustpan and brush (for less than two pounds) yesterday and swept up the disgusting kitchen floor in this godforsaken shared house. I am so glad that I will soon leave this behind and be living in a modern, air-conditioned apartment in Canada, with a bacony.

Do Not Read This

2005-10-03T18:57:00.000+01:00

Moan moan fucking moan.

I often feel like the unluckiest poker player on earth. Today's PLO8 game was just the most fantastic value you can imagine. I made only a tiny profit though, thanks to being THREE outered, TWICE, in decent pots. Not to mention losing out in decent pots when I had 18 outs in one, and 22 in another... not to scoop, but to finish off significantly better than I did.

It's that contrast that hurts so badly. Opponents hitting THREE outs on me, while I fail to hit six and seven times as many, myself.

I then final tabled for the fifth straight time in my PLO multi-table tournament, battled my way rather brilliantly to the final five, having come to the final eighth in chips. Got it all-in on the turn to gain the comfortable third-biggest stack, with flush draw and two pair, and lost to a no-pair straight draw. Nine outs, that was, which is nothing special on its own. It just felt like one more smack in the face with a runny turd.

War on Work

2005-09-30T13:33:00.000+01:00

I'm struggling with wrist and arm and shoulder pains. Clearly my desk needs some adjustment, but I have only four weeks til I move to Canada so I guess I will just soldier on. Clearly, too, I spent far less of my working day at the office actually using my mouse than I do now. I suppose there were cigarette breaks, lunch, aimless wandering around the building, and talking to my colleagues, all of which got me away from the RSI-zone.

One thing I spent far more of my time at the office doing, was reading poker blogs. Nowadays I read only a select handful, and things are pretty dry with Iggy and Nerd away. I did used to enjoy a large number of blogs, but now that I am actually engaged, interested and motivated by my work there just aren't enough hours in the day. Or minutes in the hour, whatever.

Talking of work: Camel linked an interview with Jeffrey Bernard the other day, which was taken from the Idler website. Well, yesterday I purchased a recent edition of 'The Idler' which was subtitled their 'War on Work' special. A noble publication, I must say, with some excellent things to say about the work ethic. Some interesting stats too, showing how work kills far more people every year than warfare or than alcohol and other drugs combined, how increased hours are counter-productive and how work isn't even a very successful cure for poverty.

My own cure for poverty has improved since the last entry. I took stock of my game, and realised that for some time I had been playing in a completely different way to that which has succeeded for me over several years of poker. For some reason, playing more hours had somehow seen me become less patient than before and had me throwing chips around with a reckless abandon for which I don't possess the skills or swing-handling temperament.

Since then, I have returned to my tighter ways and been reminded of the truth that most of one's winnings come from other people's mistakes. So, I am focussing on reducing my mistakes rather than trying to make super-clever 'moves' with razor-thin edges, and it seems to be working.

I've also found a daily PLO tournament, only a little over fifty runners but good fun. I've had 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 8th, 10th in the last three weeks, not playing every day, and it has proved a surprisingly profitable enterprise when I do it just for a change of pace and some relaxation.

Times a -wastin'

2005-09-23T17:51:00.000+01:00

As the lack of entries may have hinted, I am not doing well.

PLO8 is treating me okay - I even won two out of three 50% equity pots the other day - while PLO high is absolutely fucking me up the arse, sideways and backwards.

I haven't written much because I really don't want to continue a litany of bad beat moaning, but I am running horribly, horribly badly. Of course I am making some mistakes as well - always more likely when running bad I suppose - but what is particularly galling is that when I do get the money in from behind I can't ever pull off the odd win. I would actually like to be adding a bit more gamble to my game, but when I am running such that I can't win with even a 40% or 33% dog it doesn't seem wise.

Today's session was particularly demoralising and harsh. A succession of terrible starting hands, a couple of very sound bluffs picked off by dreadful calls, a gutshot straight hitting to beat my trips on a paired board (truly no idea what the guy was thinking), a lost monster threeway pot in which I had over half the equity, an inability to fill any set.

Of course, these sessions happen, and today I did not do my very best at limiting the loss. I am just finding it hard to deal with the fact that I can't get a monster session together. I'm eating like a bird and shitting like an elephant, as Doyle Brunson has put it. Yet despite putting in a lot of analysis of sessions, hands and my play, I can't see any reason for it beyond a continual and crushing case of running bad.

I picked up four more poker books yesterday, In London. 'Tao of Poker', which looks a lot more promising than 'Zen..' by the same author, Ashley Adams' seven card stud book (always interested in getting competent in more games) and both Harrington's books even though I haven't played a No Limit Hold 'Em tournament since 'going pro'.

As far as 'pro' goes, it is so far an almost unmitigated disaster. The only plus I can take is that I really am avoiding tilt better than I would have expected after five weeks of hell. I am a very, very long way from where I wanted to be at this stage, and actually a fairly long way even from what I viewed as my worst case scenario. (And I am a pessimist by nature).

Without my insane (and at this point, poorer) backer and workable bankroll, I would already be under severe pressure. Its fucking hard to succeed at this, and I fear for anyone who tries it without an adequate bankroll. Though I exclude from that comment any of my opponents today, who could clearly do it off a couple of buyins. If you are the kind of player who routinely wins your dreadful all-ins with twenty percent equity, I suggest you quit your job immediately - times a-wastin'.

Sexual heeling

2005-09-16T14:01:00.000+01:00

I was just sorting through some clothes (I need so start throwing and giving stuff away) and it reminded me of the pleasure I took from stuffing my work trousers and shoes into a wastepaper bin on my last day at work. The, that thought made me ponder how I used to procrastinate and not do enough work because I didn't care about my job and career, whereas now I procrastinate because I DO care about my job and career - I sometimes put off starting playing because it means so much to me that I don't want to fail.

To say that is the wrong attitude would be a colossal understatement, and it is either the result or the cause of my terrible performance so far since that wonderful shoes-binning moment.

Yes, things are going badly. The crux of it is that I just can't put two wins back-to-back. Wednesday was a classic example; I took second place in a PLO multi table tourney, and then later that day I lost every cent of that win and more at PLO8 in a nightmare session. Since quitting work, every winning session has been followed by a horrible session where I get no cards, or get bad beat, or make a stupid mistake somewhere along the line. I am used to stringing a number of winning sessions and days together, so it is rather frustrating. But I am, generally, pleased with how I am handling the challenge. I've kept myself in the ballpark so that when I do hit a homerun or three it will get me nicely back in the game.

I boosted the bankroll a touch as well with a rare sports bet on Monday. I liked evens about Atlanta over Philadelphia with home advantage, although from what I saw (I had to give up at halftime in the wee hours here) they made damn hard work of it.

Back to poker as a career, and a move this morning that I hope will make some kind of difference. I finally removed the fucking huge TV off my desk, where it has been cramping my and my laptop to one side and giving me pain in my mousepad-using left arm. Maybe greater space and the absence of pain will help me play longer sessions. Now I need to get the damn laptop fan unclogged, to cease the fucking whining noise that is getting louder and louder. The trouble is, of course, that this will mean being without the machine for a day or even two. I'm not sure I can handle that. E-mail, IMs with my Canadian backer, poker, porn, all gone for 48 hours? Thank heavens for the PSP, perhaps two days will be long enough for me to become any good at Virtua Tennis.

Going back to the TV, I have no idea what I am going to do with it. I'd like to get it set up somewhere else in the room, but I don't watch it all that much. An example of why, would be a show I caught recently called 'Bring Your Husband To Heel'. The high concept of this involves an expert dogtrainer (female of course) helping unhappy wives change their husbands' behaviour by secretly using dog-training techniques. One could make all sorts of observations about this, but I will just make one. Imagine the same show, complete with comparing the subject to various dogs and puppies, training the subject like a dog without its knowledge, then gleefully revealing all at the end to pile on the humiliation, only reversed - 'Bring your wife to heel'. I think there would be uproar. "Sexist! Degrading! She doesn't exist just to please you!!"

Monster's ball

2005-09-12T17:52:00.000+01:00

One comment already on my poser from yesterday, thank you.

I had a good day yesterday, but I really feel I am due a MONSTER session or day sometime soon. One where I actually win two or three 50/50's or 60/40's in a row and get a stack to really play with. At present, I am stealing and nurdling my way into profit over an hour or two, and then every time the money all goes in with me having the advantage, I lose.

One particular doofus got on my tits today with a rubdown after taking a three-way all-in pot, in which I had 48% equity, and he and the other moron had 19% and 33%. Rubdowns are classless and bad enough as it is, but giving one after you have just been outplayed and got lucky is utterly pathetic.

The awful follow-up was that I tilted my stack off (to somebody else entirely) just a couple hands later. Bad move. I at least summoned the sense to leave at that point.

Limpet Hold 'Em

2005-09-12T03:09:00.000+01:00

Nice.. did I just coin that phrase 'limpet hold 'em'? It refers of course to those damn opponents who won't let go with their bottom pair of 7's on a board full of overcards and thus beat my unimproved AQ.

I keep getting drawn back to 6-max limit hold 'em like a dog to a puddle of sick. It is odd, when I don't much like hold 'em, or limit poker. But the rakeback is awesome in comparison to my normal games (sooo many more hands) and I just don't understand how I can't be winning.

But I'm not!

And on that note, I have a question and would really appreciate comments just this once, from people with experience of the game. In a nutshell, in 100 words or less, is it possible that I am winning player at 6-max limit hold 'em when I am down 69 big bets over 19 hours? I'm only playing 3-6, and the time has been split about equally between playing one table and playing two at once.

Thanking you in advance for your views....

My leak

2005-09-09T15:40:00.000+01:00

It is much harder to get around to blogging now that I don't spend countless hours wasting time at work.

Countless hours is a sore point, actually, as I am not putting in enough hours at my new vocation. I need to give serious thought to my scheduling; the mid-morning to early afternoon don't seem like great times to play, because the proportion of serious or professional players must be larger on either side of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, the evening is when I am frequently called upon to perform social obligations, and more keen than usual to do so since I will be leaving the country quite soon (not that many people know that yet).

Anyway, the first fortnight of 'professional poker' has not been good - indeed, I am slightly down at this point. The reasons, to my mind are:

1. Not enough hours
2. Not enough focussed hours. I simply must focus more if I am remotely serious about this.
3. Not running terribly good, particuarly PLO high and even more so in...
4. ... 6-max limit Hold 'Em. Yes, for some reason I dived into this with nary a thought and even less experience. Early signs were encouraging, with an astonishing winning rate for the first seven hours or so. Since them it has been nothing but a succession of awful beats and a growing sense of total disorientation until I didn't know whether to bet, check, or stick a daffodil up my arse.
5. Bad game choices. I looked back at my first fifty hours and realised that I had spent only a third of those hours playing my two most profitable games.

I am not too discouraged overall. This may even be the best thing that could have happened to me; last time I 'went pro' I started like a train, got over-confident and pissed my bankroll away. Instead I have been taking stock and thinking things through.

I've knocked limit hold 'em on the head until I have studied it more. I firmly believe even right now I am a winning player at it - my hours so far are utterly irrelevant in terms of conclusions, but the evidence of my eyes and the play I have been up against tells me I am a winner. But I am not ready for the swings while my bankroll has yet to grow, and the swings are more vicious and the beats more frequent than I am used to.

I've knocked heads-up matches on the head completely. I can't afford to play high enough for the winnings to be meaningful.

And I am focussing on my two most profitable games; PLO8 and sets of four sit and goes, at which I am playing higher now and doing nicely.

This is such a boring post. I am still enjoying this life immensely, the freedom and flexibility, but there's not much to say about it. I did buy a PSP yesterday, and what an impressive piece of kit it is. My leak is not sports betting or craps, it's simply spending too much money on impulses.

Gentil Alouette

2005-08-29T20:23:00.000+01:00

Apologies for another long hiatus; I can't fathom how I had quite a few readers last week.

As you know if you've been paying attention, I was in Canada last week... oh, actually the week before. Since quitting work I am already struggling with/enjoying this 'what day is it?' feeling.

Canada was great, after negotiating the British Airways/Heathrow strike by cancelling and taking a Business Class seat with American Airlines. I was looking forward to being the scruffy one in a Business Class cabin full of suits and laptops, but it wasn't like that at all so I just had to settle for enjoying the comfort and about five episodes of 'Everybody Loves Raymond'.

I am getting quite into the Canadian Football League after my three trips; the three downs, twelve players and other rule peculiarities make it rather fun. I would like to pick a team to support (and hope to get as lucky as I did by seizing on the Patriots twenty years ago) and am torn. It ought to be the Toronto Argonauts due to locality, but I am completely smitten with the Montreal Alouettes helmet logo - an absurdly cute/funny cartoon bird. Don't worry, I will tell you as soon as I make up my mind.

So what about poker? Well, I am behind where I would like to be after almost a week, but I am enjoying myself and feel okay about it all. I am not under financial pressure for the time being, which helps enormously to cope with the swings - and they have already been remarkable for just six days of play.

I'll go into more detail next time.

Being Vulcan

2005-08-11T10:23:00.000+01:00

I played like an arsehole last night. I have developed a worrying tendency to tilt a little bit at PLO8 if I have one of those sessions where you get no flops or turns in your favour for an hour and a half.

Worse, my biggest mistake was when I made a moronic raise at some guy who had riled me a little (not even a lot) with a comment on my play.

My two significant losing sessions lately have both featured me shoving a ton of chips into the pot out of frustration and anger and thus increasing my losses by 50 - 100%.

Clearly, once I finish work tomorrow, I cannot let this become a habit.

Drinks for my leaving take place after work tonight (people can't make Friday). I really, really wish I could just leave without fuss, fanfares or goodbyes. I've not bothered telling anyone what I am going to be doing - why would I? I'm a miserably private, unsociable, emotionally withdrawn person. Being open and emotionally available is what left me with an ex-girlfriend whom I love and cry about from time to time, and I certainly don't need any more of that.

A more rugged Tom Cruise

2005-08-09T18:39:00.000+01:00

I went to a party on Saturday night, something I usually try to avoid. It actually turned out to be really good fun; I did a little coke for the first time in ages, and I kissed a man on the lips for the first time, ever. No, no tongues! It was just part of a hug after a very intense (and drunken) and personal conversation.

That rendered Sunday a poker washout, meaning that my mini-plateau after recent successes has continued. I still persist in playing the sit and go sets of four, even though my ROI and hourly take have declined to an embarrassing level. I really have run horribly, living in coin-toss hell and pair-over-pair purgatory (eg. I have the bigger pair), occasionally popping for light relief to the bubble torture chamber. Never mind, this too shall pass.

Today was my last Tuesday at work, ever. I must be charting new territory in worktime websurfing.

Photographs of bloggers, after you have read them for some time, can be disconcerting. Lord Miros writes one of the funniest poker journals around, and comes over as a grizzled forty-something, with permanent five O'clock shadow. Yet his recent links to photos revealed him to actually be a pink-skinned public-school-looking type, almost certainly several years younger than my own youthful thirty-x.

I won't ever be putting a picture here, even after one of my photos was recently shown to a woman who then declared me to look like 'a more rugged Tom Cruise'. Yes, honestly. And come on, you'd put that in your blog if somebody said it about you, right?

No fuss please

2005-08-05T14:05:00.000+01:00

This has been my most fallow period of posting ever, if I understand 'fallow' correctly. It is a little strange as poker has been mostly going very well indeed, and I have the excitement of finishing work next Friday.

I would really prefer to just slip away un-noticed, but evening drinks are kind of obligatory and so is a cringeworthy office presentation and faltering speech. I have asked that they don't get me any presents, and donate any such money to a charity. I really don't need any presents, nor anybody wasting their lunch hour buying them - and I can just about survive without the 'how much did I get?' barometer of my popularity.

Meanwhile, poker is good as I said - except that my second cashout from Eurobet is now at three WEEKS and a day without appearing in my bank account, when bank transfers are supposed to take five working days. It was meant to be a little extra spending money on my holiday in mid-July. I am getting seriously pissed off with this and with the fast-to-reply but slow-to-do-anything customer service.

On the plus side, PLO8 continues to reward me - with the exception of a sod's law session the day after I announced I was quitting work. Even better, Eurobet now have 6-max tables of straight PLO. I had a nice three hours on Wednesday reminding myself how much I enjoy straight Pot Limit Omaha - I just can't bear to play it in a full ring game any more.

What else have I been up to? Oh, I did something I NEVER do and played a satellite tournament (ultimate goal, a flash trip into a WPT event). I only needed to be in the top 4 of 23 players to go through to the final, but it went horribly. I reraised big with KK in about the third level, after a small raise and two callers. Only one guy called, from the blinds or under the gun, for 400 of his remaining 500. He had AJ. The flop was 8TQ, giving him nine outs by my reckoning, and sadly one of them came on the river. So instead of a leading stack, I was down to about 350.

The same player could not call quick enough with A3o when I tried to steal with T2s, and so he knocked me out single-handed with sheer brainless poker. Tournament poker sure seems like a game for the lucky, at times.

In other news, I am such a miserable, unsociable 'loner'. This weekend I seem to have innumerable calls upon my time, from boozing after work to a lengthy and messy party to a yawnsville walk in the country. All I want to do is sit at home, alone with my laptop, a few good books, tea and cigarettes.

That's all for now. Next time - views on two more poker books.

About bloody time

2005-07-27T23:04:00.000+01:00

I discovered yesterday that my ex was in town on Sunday, visiting a mutual friend - the person through whom we met, actually. It saddens me that I could not see her, even when she was back in my hometown, because of her new boyfriend's refusal to lay eyes on me. I suppose his attitude is understandable, and it probably shouldn't fill me with as much regret as it does.

Oh well, life is good on the whole. Very good. My holiday last week wasn't that great, although it was good to get away from what I laughably call work and I felt very relaxed on returning.

Anyway, certain things are moving on and I will be handing in my notice at work on Friday. I will then be playing poker for my income, though with a bankroll in place that gives me a decent safety net. It has been going well lately, particularly the PLO8, a game where I am starting to think I have a lot of talent. The sets of four sit and goes are up and down. I don't make nearly as much money as in PLO8, but cannot stop playing them completely. There is something seductive about watching the stats move up and down - percentage in the money, bubble exits (down), first places (also down, sadly), return on investment (fluctuating a lot).

I had a rare shopping splurge yesterday, in 'Borders'. It was quite a varied shopping basket; a large 'Spiderman' collection, a porn novel, the Kaiser Chiefs album (pretty good), a professional footballer's diary of a season, and two slim Noam Chomsky volumes. I've never actually read Chomsky directly, despite having probably digested a hundred quotes of his elsewhere.

Hmm. It seems there is always less to write when life is good...

Sit and go thoughts

2005-07-08T01:09:00.000+01:00

Okay, this is a post on sit and goes that I wrote two or three weeks ago. I have progressed since writing this, but want to put things in sequence:

I am becoming really rather fascinated by sit and goes. I do believe they provide a ton of positive expectation, and I find them quite fun (exciting, even).

My results playing the sets of three have not been brilliant so far - indeed, my return on investment is a very disappointing 9% (excluding rake back). However, I kid myself/am convinced (delete as applicable) that I have run pretty bad, going out repeatedly with dominating hands. At present, my sample size is so small that even just turning two horribly unlucky second places into victories would tansform the ROI into a more acceptable 21%.

I had an interesting situation recently, with five players remaining. Three of us went all-in on the flop (me last) creating a pot of over half the chips. My second pair and flush draw were up against top pair and an unimproved AK. I was 43% to win and go into the last three with more than half the chips on the table. On top of that, if the unimproved AK hadn’t rivered a gutshot straight (he played the hand abysmally) then I would still have taken the side pot, and had a playable stack with four left.

The maths, equity, permutations of these kinds of pots fascinate me. Certainly I’d love to be in that situation in every sit and go I ever played, if you’re offering…

- 43% of the time I am in the money with a big chip lead

37% of the time I am in the last four with a workable stack

20% of the time I am out

Or, I could have just folded on that flop and been in the last four with OK chips, every time. No, not every time, just every time the lousy AK hit. Otherwise there are still five left and I have just OK chips. I am quite sure I did the right thing, but comments would be great.

Meanwhile, I intend to step a gear and play sets of four from now on. I have gotten used to three at once pretty easily, and don’t envisage any difficulties adding one more. I guess if I ever money in all four then it might get tricky, but I’m not expecting or budgeting for that!

Invariably I will be out of one (or two) before we get down to five players, and there is usually at least one table with a couple of real slowcoach players, so the decisions don’t come around unbearably quickly. I don’t think I could cope with Pokernerd’s EIGHT games at once, mind you, and not just because I am on a laptop. Actually, some of Nerd’s writing has made a difference to my sit and go game recently - he makes a lot of sense. Also, honestly, reading of his recent ups and downs has helped me retain faith in my approach in the face of that ugly 9% ROI.

If there’s one thing I am examining at the moment, its my bubble play. Usually, I am playing to win from an early stage; trying to amass chips such that from five left I will coast into the money with a good - if not dominant - stack and strong chance of first place. However, I think I am pushing this idea too far if I get down to the bubble with only small to middling chips. I’m going out in fourth too often in those circumstances, shooting for a double through, when I may have to accept that in that scenario limping into third is not such a bad thing.

Efficiency

2005-07-06T16:59:00.000+01:00

I had a moment of clarity at the weekend. If I’m living the bachelor life, I thought, why am I still washing my cutlery and dishes??

So I bought some plastic cutlery at the supermarket. I would have got plastic or paper plates too, but they were all too small for a proper meal. I will find some, though. Then the next step is to get some big plastic or Styrofoam cups for my cups of tea.

The time saved by simply throwing these items away, rather than washing and drying the traditional versions, can be better spent check-raising with the nuts.

Booking wins, winning books

2005-07-05T16:48:00.000+01:00

Hmm, I have become rather lax with the blog. I wouldn't blame any regular reader for having given up after my recent glut of 'running bad' moans.

Anyways, I have been plugging away with sets of three sit 'n' goes (I really will post my lengthy thoughts on them, soon) and the usual PLO8. I'm still recording a very low ROI in the sit n goes, though I remain convinced that I'm not getting much luck; the number of times I'm going out with Ace-big versus Ace-smaller is quite distressing.

As for PLO8, I've been getting my feet wet at bigger tables. Last night I played an hour with three times more of my money on the table than for the past few months. I'm not reeeally bankrolled to do that, yet, but I'm testing the waters. I haven't yet noticed a marked difference as I've moved up - perhaps a couple more decent players per table, but still plenty of soft spots. Yesterday may have been deceptive, it being a public holiday in the states, but I made a nice score in the hour.

I've read two of the books I got in Canada. The slim Bobby Baldwin book is readable; the life story is interesting while the poker advice is really just filler and of very minimal value.

However, 'The Professor, The Banker, and The Suicide King' is quite superb. However much you think you know about the Andy Beal game, and the pros involved, I am sure this tome will be an eye-opener. I found it absolutely rivetting, and it was one of those books that ended up forcing myself to put down - so that I could enjoy it for three days, rather than one.

This reminds me of my recent musings on the World Series. I realised that I am far more interested in reading about Daniel Negreanu's big cash games with Barry Greenstein, than in these interminable tournaments. I think that high-stakes cash play is generally far more interesting than tourneys, and I'd be more likely to go to the trouble of getting cable TV for poker-viewing purposes if they showed money games. (I might get cable in time for the next NFL season).

This is not to say I'm not following all the results from the WSOP, which I am, but you take my point I hope.

Same old same old

2005-06-29T19:34:00.000+01:00

Apologies for the unplanned hiatus.

I have a couple of entries written - about the World Series, and sit and goes - but flew off to Canada again without finding time to put them up. Whilst away, I bought several poker books and had the opportunity to think about the game in detachment for a change, since I wasn't playing.

I came back today feeling absolutely full of confidence ands determination. Indeed, I still AM full of confidence and determination, but I'm writing just to vent the steam of yet more shitty, fucking awful luck. Again.

I made an okay profit by winning one of a set of three sit and goes, but was pissed off to go out of another in a large pre-flop pot with AQ versus KQ, the usual 3-1 favourite that is losing for me over and over again at present. More frustrating by far, I am currently down a little at a PLO8 table where I have played my socks off. I have been in two big pots in the session, each well over a buy-in in size. The first was a pre-flop all-in where my AA2Q somehow got scooped by 88JQ. The second, the dude tried to knock me off on the turn when I held a weakish flush and second-nut low. I called with my fingers crossed, but it turned out he had just two pair and I was sitting on 95% equity. I had the low locked up and he had just four outs to get half the pot.And of course, that is precisely what happened.

I'm not discouraged in my play, of course; I'm playing a little higher and p[ushing my chips into extremely profitable situations. But I would be lying if I said I am not a little discouraged by this seemingly never ending inability to have a hand stand up any time the pot reaches a significant size. A free-roll with 95% equity sounds pretty good to me, and I just despair that I can't even get over the winning line with a hand like that.

This shitty run dates back to my return from Canada almost two months ago, and is certainly the longest (in both table hours and on the calendar) that I have experienced in my four years or so online.

It has me pondering the nature of luck, sometimes. I'm quite lucky in many areas of life - health, and a lack of personal tragedies spring to mind - and a run like this gets you wondering if there is some kind of cosmic apportioning of fortune whereby there is none left for my card-playing.

Of course, I don't really believe that kind of shit. But when seemingly every massive favourite goes down in flames while I can't even fluke a winner as a 40% shot, it sure messes with my mind.

I am going to try to stop moaning in here from now on. Coming very soon, my current thoughts on sit and goes, the World Series and the new books I got.

Correction

2005-06-17T00:01:00.000+01:00

I would like to apologise for any inaccurate impression that may have been created by my previous post, approximately seven hours ago.

For the record, and to clear up any misunderstanding, I fucking hate poker.

I just played another set of three sit and goes. Regrettably, one of them proved to be a Limit game rather than no-limit... I'm glad I managed to realise this just before I hit 'return' on my witty comment about the ridiculous number of mini-bets and mini-raises that were going on.

Anyway, in one game I managed to romp to victory without even once having the worst of it when significant money went into the pot. In the second, I was the short stack (but only a double through from being in contention) with six players left and got it all-in pre-flop with Ace-Queen versus - yes - Ace-Jack. Sure as you like, the fucking Jack turned up on the flop. Again.

And in the limit event, I played rather well actually and got to the last four. Here I got it all-in pre-flop versus the intensive-care short stack with a coin toss, and lost. Since the biggest stack only had four big bets at this stage, that was pretty much the end of me (I couldn't possibly hope to overturn AJ with my K9 a couple hands later).

Stupid fucking game. I feel like Phil Hellmuth, only shorter and with fewer endorsements.

Domination frustration

2005-06-16T16:42:00.000+01:00

You know, I really do LOVE poker. I play almost every day; I play for hours on end some days; I have bought over twenty poker (or poker-related books) and still own about 15 of them; I think about it all the time; I read about it all the time, I am obsessed with it.

I just frigging love poker. And that's despite my losses in heads-up battle, either a heads-up match or at the end of a sit and go over the last 48 hours, coming from my A9 v A8, KQ suited v KJ off, AA v 9T on a ten-high flop, and QQ v TT (which was all-in pre-flop on the very first hand). It truly has reached the stage where, with a pre-flop all-in where my hand utterly dominates my opponent, I genuinely expect to see one of his three kicker outs hit the board. AT v T7 was another that I forgot.

But I still love the game - and I'm winning, just not as much as I feel like I could be. I played five 'sets of three' at the NLHE sit and goes yesterday, taking three 1sts, three 2nds and a 3rd. Oh, and two bubbles when I refused to try to limp into third spot. It was a nice return for less than four hours' play, but I admit I am a little sore that two of the second places came down to me getting beat heads-up with 75% and 66% favourite hands. Make it five 1sts, one 2nd and a 3rd and I start to look like Johnny Chan.

If you do play sit and goes, I highly recommend playing several at once. It is all too easy (for me, at any rate) to out-think yourself in these games, but playing three or more at once you zip around the tables and also avoid putting too much emotional investment into any one table or situation. I find myself more prepared to put my chips and neck on the line when I have several necks in play at once, and so I make greater use of that precious folding equity, as well as not folding too easily to some of the bone-headed Party plays.

Talking of boneheads and Party, I really am getting dreadfully sick of all the morons and their abusive table-chat. At times it feels like I am sitting at a table with nine 21-year old pricks, all wearing baseball caps and other sportswear (so that their appearance is unambiguously Not Gay), with an overload of testosterone to match their acne, and no outlet for those hormones besides wanking off and spouting macho bullshit over the internet. Now, apologies to my American reader, but I just don't see this sort of ubiquitous and relentless behaviour at Ladbrokes (no Americans allowed). Perhaps that go-getting, aggressive boldness that has made the USA so dominant in the world (good or bad thing, discuss) also makes its young men behave like complete and utter dickheads.

Having said all that, and coming from my own macho bullshit genes, I have seen the cigar girls outside the WSOP mentioned in a couple of blogs now, and I want to see a picture of them... They've been described as 'skanky', and I have a mental image of 'em that I want to judge for validity.

Until next time, peace!

Buzzing

2005-06-13T16:33:00.000+01:00

I had a reasonable weekend. Didn't put in all that many hours of poker as I was fairly socially active, but they were good hours.

Actually, my head is buzzing with hands and situations... Bluffing into two opponents on the river at PLO8, at least one of them should have folded to get me half a decent pot, but both called with non-nut one-way hands despite the strength I had shown throughout... losing a reasonable pot (a session make-or-breaker) as the smallest of small favourites with my wrap draw... taking a nice pot after calling a preflop raise and bluffing all streets to the river... making a good call on the end after an extra moment's thought... and failing to bet and take a pot on the river despite having made the right read.

I have got myself accustomed to playing two tables at the next game up, handling the swings of a session at a higher limit. Last night was particularly swingy, though only from stuck to level to stuck to level again! I feel quite good about my game, and feel a big win in the offing.

I bought one of these today. I've got every old arcade game imagineable on a CD for my laptop, but you can't beat playing them with a nice chunky joystick. One of the very first things I will do when I am making big wedge at the $1000 tables is to buy a cocktail table arcade machine... one of the real classics.

No time for food

2005-06-10T15:45:00.000+01:00

Decent little win in just over an hour at Party/Eurobet last night, not bad considering I was very drunk indeed. I didn't drink all that much really, but going to play snooker straight from work, then meeting my Dad immediately afterwards, left no time for food. I did have a big bag of crisps in the pub though.

The evening wasn't entirely successful, since I remain terrible at snooker (I think I need to start from scratch - stance, action, everything) and Dad and I spent the first half-hour of our scheduled drinks evening sitting in different pubs about a mile apart. It seems my father got a bit intoxicated after we made our arrangements the previous evening, and promptly forgot the finer details.

Anyway, we had a pleasant enough couple of hours talking about diet, booze, music and the state of his marriage. These were good, good, good and bad respectively.

Finally, did I ever mention how good this rake back site is? They have offers at lots of the cardrooms.

Hit stats dropping

2005-06-09T23:40:00.000+01:00

I've been keeping abreast of World Series of Poker results. A couple of British players have been close to bracelets - Devilfish was third or something, and Harry Demetriou took second in the 6-max NLHE yesterday.

What interested me was the dramatically smaller turnout for the 6-max tournament than for the other No Limit events. It seems that it doesn't matter what level of the game you look at, a lot of people are still scared of a short-handed game. Me, I don't even consider six seats to be short-handed, really. You can still more or less play poker, you don't have to play every hand, you just get the chance to be a bit more creative with the nuts out against you less often.

Indeed, it drives me nuts at Party when a full table drops just a couple players, and suddenly everyone runs for the hills. A good game turns into a collection of empty seats faster than you can say 'come back you pathetic cowards, its more fun this way and if we keep playing then others will sit down'.

I had a fairly good night last night, lost a tiny bit at 6-max on the old site, playing well but not quite catching a big pot. I was 30% dog in the one promising pot as it turned out, and I couldn't catch that break. I then won a reasonable amount at Party for once, though there were no games at the level I really wanted to play.

I flicked through the PLO section of Super System 2' afterwards, and was reminded how truly little good information on Pot Limit Omaha high or high-low there is in books. I don't think there is a single thing in any book so far that a good player wouldn't have worked out for themselves over time. You will find more 'advanced' thoughts in Big Dave D's blog or occasionally in Rolf Slotboom's articles than in any book published so far. Having said that, it never hurts to re-acquaint oneself with the fundamentals, and I certainly got a head start once I read Ciaffone's book (having been cleaned out in my early forays into the game).

Having said all that, I don't really mind. It is nice to formulate one's own strategies and style, and learn from experience.

AN ASIDE

The headline on the online Cardplayer magazine version of their Paul Darden feature is 'Paul Darden Is Back'. Initially I mis-read it and thought it said 'Paul Darden Is BLACK'. Wow, that's a pretty blunt headline, I mused until I realised my mistake.

ANOTHER ASIDE

My hit stats are dropping gradually at the moment. Maybe people are reading via 'bloglines' or some such service. Or have I gotten really boring lately? Comments welcome.

Shrunken and shrivelled

2005-06-07T15:51:00.000+01:00

I have been unusually lax in updating recently. Running bad may have something to do with it. It's been a really trying few weeks...

Want to win with AQ v A7 at the crucial stage of a sit and go? No chance. Headsup in a PLO8 game in a pre-flop raising war that ends all-in, holding A23J doublesuited, versus a bag of spanners? You must be kidding if you expect to get a cent out of that pot. Flopped broadway versus one pair? A split! A2 versus 24 on a 226T board? Forget it mate...

Sometimes I think I need to have a 499-1 favourite to win a pot. Oh hang on...

However, I have certainly made mistakes. Failing to steal for myself a split pot through fear of betting. Getting into trouble out of position. Failing to raise certain hands pr-flop when I should have.

The bad run creates its own errors, as it pushes you into your shell no matter how much you try to resist that effect. The most upsetting example of that came at the weekend, when I check-folded on the turn in a large PLO8 pot to action from two opponents. In the worst-case scenario I would have had some chances in what became a really big pot. The best-case scenario was that I was still ahead and would have scooped it - and that turned out to be the case. Much gnashing of teeth. That one hurt.

Still, I think I am emerging from my cramped, painful shell, my eyes blinking in the blinding light. I decided to have a heavy poker weekend, focussed on playing lots of hours rather than on results. It went okay, despite missing out on that pot. The highlight was probably a session of PLO 6-max which began when I lost a pre-flop all-in with Aces versus someone else's Aces, which was doubly (though irrelevantly) painful because he had only three outs on the river. From there, I put the pedal to the metal and played with guts, desire, focus and skill to turn it into a reasonable win.

Suddenly I found myself playing like my old self again; I hadn't realised just how shrunken and shrivelled I had become at the table until I stood up tall again.

Anyway, I had a reasonable weekend and Monday evening. Nothing special, but back on track somewhat. I defintely fare better at 6-max than a full table, and I need to make the requisite adjustments on the Party/Eurobet ring tables to cope with that. The rakeback just makes it too good an opportunity to pass up. I've also finally managed to deposit a good portion of my mystery backer's funds into that account...

The next few weeks will see me chasing two goals; lots of hours, and taking a step or two up in size of games.

Besides all that, life tickles along just fine. Weather improving, snooker deteriorating, proposed European constitution in tatters after referenda results in France and Netherlands. Happy days, and I am on the up...

Heads up, heads down

2005-06-05T12:53:00.000+01:00

I had won 6 out of 7 heads-up matches (no limit freezeouts) without ever being all-in with the worst of it, when I sat down versus an Aussie this morning.

In match one I had him nicely outchipped as the blinds got big, and got him all-in with me a 60/40 favourite. That went down and put him ahead from where he won.

Second match, I had him all-on a flop of AJQ, me holding TK for broadway and him with Q7 for one pair. Turn and river completed broadway on the board to split it. I was a mere 25-1 shot to win it. Only a few hands later I had A2 on a board of 226T. Both all-in, he has 2-4 and the river is a 4 for his 14-1 winner. It sort of hurts to lose a match, no matter how low the stakes, on a cumulative 390-1 shot.

I took a worse beat yesterday actually - the place where I wanted to deposit cash into Party (well, Eurobet) via Quickpay had - gnash! - run out of forms! When might you get forms? Oh, I don't know (thought bubble over his head said 'I don't care'). So now I will have to do it via fucking bank transfer, suposed to take five working days, though my withdrawal by the same method took over a fortnight. Had I known I wouldn't be able to 'Quickpay' the money, I would have done the bank transfer on Wednesday.

Fuck me, poker is frustrating. I don't know how I keep my head sometimes. If I didn't bore you fucking rigid with bad beat stories in here then I probably would have exploded by now.

6 max headroom

2005-06-01T23:43:00.000+01:00

I am getting really pissed off with poker. With my luck. With never, ever winning a crucial hand. (Yes, I won one on Monday as a 45% dog, the fact that I remember it so well shows what a fucking rarity it is).

Yesterday I lost a little bit. I played the 6-max tables at my old site; one table of straight Omaha and one of O8. (Possibly not the ideal mix!) I won reasonably at the PLO8, reminding me that I was doing pretty well at that before I emptied the account in April. However, I took a fair loss in Omaha high. The slightly frustrating part was that I was 55% favourite in a four-way all-in-on-the-flop pot for the biggest pot of the session, which would have given me a very nice win over the two tables.

Obviously, in a way I am encouraged by that. I felt I adjusted pretty well going back to short-handed. There is a knack to knowing how far - and in what ways - you should loosen up, and it came back to me quite naturally.

Later on I had a quick, semi-recreational punt at two $10 sit and goes on Party. I am beginning to think that either I suck at these, or I am having a terrible run of luck in them, or they are just a crapshoot. I find myself wondering how people make good profits on Party SNGs, given the structure, and I think I will read some of the blogs and other articles about them. For all I know, you might get more chips at the higher buy-ins, though I doubt it.

My exits (6th and 4th) came with a 75% favourite pre-flop all in, and then an inability to win with a 40% dog. I expect I made some mistakes along the way, but it sure would be nice to win some of those hands at the critical point in a game. I probably ought to just quit sit and goes, but I am somewhat seduced by the action and the feeling that I really ought to be able to turn in a decent return on investment in them. I would like to have as many profitable strings to my bow as possible.

Incidentally, going back to the PLO cash game, there was a chap to my right with a stack of about eight buy-ins. He won the big pot where I was favourite (he had a legitimate top set and about 30% equity). He then proceeded to win every single pot of note for about the next hour. I mean every one - and he didn’t even play well, at all. He just called everything and flopped, turned or rivered the nuts, hand after hand. A decent player would have made a ton more money with the cards he held, and don’t think that fact went un-noticed by me nor failed to make me wail with frustration.

It only just dawned upon me that the World Series of Poker begins tomorrow. I find myself curiously unmoved, but I will probably get into it as it gets underway. I will certainly be keeping an eye out for any bloggers making headway in the opening $1500 event. Having said which… I don’t know any of their real names!

Shopping

2005-05-31T17:01:00.000+01:00

I popped back onto my old site on Thursday night, after yet another loss at the Party PLO8 tables. I sat down for a NLHE heads-up freezeout and got dealt AA on my first hand. Now that’s a ‘welcome back’ bonus!

I won 5 out of 6 matches, losing a 55/45 coinflip all-in for my sole defeat. I didn’t make much because I played real small, but it was enjoyable and a nice change of pace to be playing almost every hand, using cunning and aggression and nerve as opposed to the highly mathematical and disciplined world of O8.

I went away for the weekend, back up north to catch up with old friends (sadly, my ex was out of town). It was fun, and it’s always kind of nice to go a couple of days without playing. I did some shopping, which is very rare for me; a new pair of trainers, a DVD and a rather cool, bargain-priced digital video/still camera with which I am in love.

We also ventured to a gay club on Saturday night. I’ve been a couple of times before and had a blast, but the music was dreadful this time. You don’t realise how big a role the music plays in making a good night, until it sucks. Heaping on the disappointment, I didn’t get chatted up even once! (No I’m not, by the way, but its always flattering…). I think I may have witnessed my first man-on-man blow job in the toilets, but I’m not sure ‘cause I didn’t look twice.

The rest of the weekend mainly involved listening to all the late 80’s/early 90’s music that we remember so fondly, and me rediscovering ‘Calvin & Hobbes’.

Yesterday, Bank Holiday Monday, I played a fair bit of PLO8 and had a nice result. It kicked off with a decent pot where I only had 44% equity when the money went in on the flop, but I scooped. About bloody time! Besides that, I played pretty well and with supreme discipline. There can’t be another form of poker where good folds are more important and have to be made so often.

Finally, I ought to give my capsule reviews of the three poker books I bought in Canada.

‘The Making of a Poker Player’ by Matt Matros (pronounced ‘May-tros’ by the way) is excellent. Easy to read, entertaining and interesting. I must go back and read some of the game theory passages again. Its not stuff that will engage somebody already into game theory and with strong maths skills, but gives the layman a tantalising glimpse of that stuff. I rate books by the likelihood of me selling them on eBay at a later date. 1% in this case.

‘Championship Omaha’ by McEvoy and Cloutier. Yuk. This one did nothing for me. I hoped, having enjoyed ‘According to Doyle’ so much, that TJ’s Tales at the back might at least be worthwhile – but they are completely dull and only lead you to wonder why you seem to have to be a paid killer for TJ to deem you ‘a character’. On top of that, McEvoy trots out his ‘see you in the winner’s circle’ schtick at least twice. It is a mystery to me how Bob Ciaffone could have had any involvement in this shallow and unenlightening book. My eBay rating: 90%

‘Poker: The Real Deal’ by Phil Gordon. I quite enjoyed this, although I haven’t read every chapter. Gordon writes in a nice, humorous style that makes for a good light read. It is, though, a typical 'poker-boom' book in that is going to be of most interest and value to the beginner. Having said which, Gordon throws in a few interesting quizzes that should get most people thinking a bit, about seat selection and such. My eBay rating: 25%

Patient still on ventilator

2005-05-26T21:23:00.000+01:00

Almost a year into the life of my blog, and I have finally taken on an affiliate arrangement.

These guys run a really good rakeback service, at eurobet (Party skin) and several other sites. I've been really pleased with their service; they set my account up for me, their nice clean site provides daily updates on your rake paid in the month, and queries are replied to very quickly.

Things have improved for me since the barrage of moaning entries about my terrible luck. I have booked a couple of small wins, but my luck is still really not good. I could have recorded reasonable wins, but several total or near-freerolls have failed to provide even one scoop. Winning the whole pot in these spots once in a blue fucking moon is where decent profits come from in PLO8. When you can never win one, and are just splitting middling pots all over the place and stealing the odd small one, the game can become mindnumblingly tedious.

Frankly, I have tightened up lately. Playing creatively, as I had used to do, is rather trying when people simply won't fold on the end - to any size bet - if they have even a 10% chance of maybe, just maybe sneaking half the pot.

I deposited into my old site today, but I am still finding it hard to go there when I am getting RAKEBACK at Eurobet!

Backer to the future

2005-05-23T18:22:00.000+01:00

I had the anniversary of this blog wrong. It’s the 28th, not today. I never have been much good with birthdays and suchlike. I’m not sure I’d be handing out balloons and cakes anyway - I have neither the mood nor the bankroll for that.

Yes, the bad run continues and I am really suffering. I’m bewildered, stunned, frustrated, pissed off, disappointed and upset. It isn’t the worst financial run of my poker life - I’ve lost more in one pot than I have in the past two weeks - but it is the worst in terms of timing, and the sheer persistence of these awful, shitty cards.

It is starting to get to me. I’ve avoided tilting; I’ve tried tightening up; I’ve tried gambling a little more. And of course I am starting to question my play, even after checking just about every hand history where I have lost a lot of chips. Every time, I have either been a big favourite or at least in decent shape. And heck, you can’t get it right every time, but surely you should expect to hit the odd 3/1 shot to scoop and surely you should expect to occasionally get something out of the pot when you are only 60/40 underdog?

Shockingly, I now have somebody who is backing me somewhat, who believes in my game enough to do so - although it is largely a favour because this person can afford it. Therefore, I will be reasonably bankrolled in a few days despite these recent losses. My aim will be to play somewhat higher, although in gradual steps at the moment with my confidence having taken such a battering.

I’ll also be splitting my play between Eurobet and my older site, as I enjoy the greater variety of games there; 6-max tables, PLO sit and goes, heads-up freezeouts, five card stud. However, the rakeback I get at Eurobet means I want to play there plenty; its all I have made for the past fortnight!

Today’s most bizarre Google search referral to this site: ‘Toby Maguire naked’.

Constructive criticism

2005-05-20T17:42:00.000+01:00

I noticed last night that my last four entries all bemoan my recent luck. To be honest, it continues. I’m getting stiffed by the turn or river no matter how encouraging the flop; if there are three cards in the deck that can ruin my low draw then one of them will come, if I am in good shape to scoop or three-quarter and put some chips in then I end up getting half or none more often than not.

The good thing is that I am handling it really well - and playing well and staying calm when running bad is certainly far more important than how you play when you are running good. I am only losing a real small amount this week, thanks to picking up my share of orphan pots, not tilting, and just a couple of brave and inspired calls on the river.

It is frustrating, of course, because I have decided that when I win a certain, reasonably small, amount from here then I am going to take a punt at bigger games. I won’t really have anything like the requisite bankroll, even by my own optimistic standards, but I intend to give it a go anyway because:

(a) I am not terribly affected by the amounts at stake at the moment; even though they are appropriate for my bankroll they are ultimately replaceable even for me. Even given the desirable state of not being concerned about the money whilst playing poker, I would like to feel a bit more engaged.

(b) I want to get a feel for different levels of PLO8 since I will certainly be playing higher if I do quit work.

(c) I want to take a shot at building my roll up rather quicker than I am currently doing

(d) I am more than capable of moving back down if I lose

(e) I am easily good enough!

Also with quitting work in mind, I have been pleased to find that I can play a lot of hours with relative ease. I’m managing to fit in four hours some days even when I am at work all day and go out for drinks in the evening! I would like to not play a crazy number of hours if I do quit work, but its also nice to know that I can potentially handle a lot of time if I am behind schedule or trying to make some extra for holidays etc.

Whether I will ever do this remains debatable; I currently play too low and don’t make an hourly rate that would sustain me. I would need a bigger bankroll and bigger games and a lot of determination. But I am not ashamed to say that I definitely want to do it.

On that note, whenever the topic of ‘going pro’ is discussed online, there is always someone who talks of how playing poker for a living is ‘not constructive’. Eg this comment:

‘Poker is not a lifetime vocation. Why? It's not constructive. It doesn't contribute anything to the world.’

Well, my response to that is ‘Yeah? And what do YOU do?’There aren’t that many jobs that ARE constructive or that contribute anything to the world. Are you in accounts? Sales? Delivering things in a van? Writing software? Do you think that on your deathbed you will reflect upon what wonderful things you gave to the world through your forty years of employment?

Obviously, there are exceptions. But most of these whining idiots talking about how poker is not ‘constructive’ are working in some shitty office, shuffling paper, shuffling numbers, meeting clients, doing nothing of benefit to anybody’s soul whatsoever. On top of that, those of them/us who are paid employees but who send personal emails, surf the web, pore over Iggy’s uberposts for an hour in the office and so on, are thieving time from our employers for which they are paying us. I do it to a huge degree and I don’t feel good (nor exactly wracked by gut-wrenching guilt) about it.

I would feel a whole lot better supporting myself through my own efforts on my own time, stealing from nobody, lying to nobody, selling over-priced crap to nobody, schmoozing nobody.

Wouldn’t you?

I want cards banned

2005-05-18T23:41:00.000+01:00

I am closing on a year since I began this blog. There will of course be balloons and cake if you check back on the 23rd.

I have tried a couple of things to arrest my bad run, even though I believe it has mainly been a dry run of cards. I played three hours of totally focussed PLO8 on Monday, no surfing, no chatting. It went quite well, though not spectacular.

I also tried my own sit ‘n’ go experiment, though on a far smaller scale than poker nerd. I tried just sets of three at once. My laptop monitor doesn’t allow me to multi-table without significant overlap, regardless of resolution, so I find more than three tables at once rather tricky. I did three goes.

It went okayish, but I only made two seconds and a third. I felt, surprise surprise, that I didn’t enjoy much luck. I never once outdrew anybody in an all-in pot, and was a coin-flip from turning the third into a second and one of the seconds into a first. Anyway, I enjoyed it quite a lot, so that was nice. As it stands, though, I am a net loser in Party $10+1 sit and goes, after about 20 of them in total. That can’t be good!

I guess we all struggle to truly mentally assimiliate the poker fact of swings, variance, call it what you will. Bob put it nicely, saying that on a bad streak he thinks ‘I suck’, and on a good streak ‘I have my doubts about whether I’ll ever lose again’.

Meanwhile, the Blair government - elected by something like 22% of eligible British voters - outlines its plans. One of the major pieces of crap is the compulsory ID cards plan. This particular policy is so abhorrent to me on every level that I might finally get off my arse and do some campaigning. This site does a reasonable job of explaining why a compulsory ID card (never mind having to personally pay for one!) is so wrong in context of the state- individual relationship.

Nightmaresville

2005-05-15T13:02:00.000+01:00

There's no way around it. I am running very bad.

It's testament to how determined I am to stay on an even keel, that I am actually up a tiny, TINY bit since last Sunday's tilt-fest. If I were succumbing to tilt whenever provoked this week, I would have probably blown my entire bankroll.

Last night and today have continued in the same vein as the previous five days. I have lost countless pots as a favourite; not a huge favourite, but every time the pot is a reasonable size and I have an edge, that edge simply flips round and slashes me. It seems like, if the pot is over $50 then I will not win it no matter what. I have also run utterly card-dead in a few sit and goes.

This morning has particularly yanked my chain. I finally won a sit and go, monstering my way through the last four opponents with abandon. Cool! Now let's kick some butt at PLO8.

A series of abysmal flops later, plus a 52%-to-me coinflip versus a loose opponent which I - of course - lost and a four-way preflop all-in from which I got nothing, and I could feel the tilt nagging at me. I think I just this second 'threw' a buy-in, so I have shut the tables down for a while. I will probably find when I check the numbers that I was a favourite even in that pot.

Still, I am having to take whatever scraps I can at the moment, so all I can do is at least feel pleased with myself for leaving the games.

The guy I described as loose, above, appeared to be an excellent player. However, to win six buyins in about an hour he sure got lucky. His sets held up, his good two-way draws hit both ways, his lows didn't get counterfeited. Jesus Christ I need a session like that. I am maintaining faith in my game, but it sure is tough.

I truly feel that with a modicum of fortune I would have had an absolute monster week, wiping out that tilty Sunday and plenty more besides. I want a week like that, desperately, because I am reaching breaking point with my job. I cannot stand it. I can barely bring myself to go in, every single morning.

I am ready to take a huge gamble. I might even havc somebody prepared to invest a little in giving me the opportunity. We'll see.

Officially unlucky

2005-05-14T00:42:00.000+01:00

I just suffered my worst beat ever. Thank fuck it was in a sit and go, I suppose. I came tenth.

I had QQ, raised preflop and got one caller, who had Tc 4c

Flop QT4. No clubs.

All the money goes in.

Turn Ten.

River Ten.

I was 499-1 favourite when the money went in, and 43-1 after the turn.

Equity sucks

2005-05-13T23:30:00.000+01:00

I played really well on Thursday night, getting my money in with the best of it time after time, for almost five hours. I only won $33. Very frustrating really.

Two pots stick in my mind, where all the money went in on the turn with me having 74% and 83% equity. I was 7/1 and 4/1 to get nothing out of each pot,and that is what happened in both.
Still, these situations are why poker has almost entirely superceded sports betting in my gambling life. If you know of any sports bets paying 2/1 on 1/7 or 1/4 shots, please let me know immediately!

Actually if you are still into sports betting and have some money you don't mind tying up for a couple of months, then you could do worse than invest in Australia to win the Ashes this summer. I was getting caught up in the pro-England hype, but two people whose cricket judgement is spot on assure me that it is a one-horse race.

Anyway, tonight is still not going all that well - I am up but not very much. It seems like I can never win a 6/4 shot against me, but mine get cracked the other way repeatedly. Actually, I made a big raise earlier and got called by two and thought I had really stuffed up. I got nothing from the pot, but the numbers showed I had almost 48% equity compared to their 30% and 22%. I was in fact 88% to get half the pot.

Do you ever feel 'I am just not a lucky player'?

I know that's nonsense... but is it?? I'm sure my hourly rate of equity is way higher than my hourly rate of actual money. Sigh. I feel I must be close to having a real monster session.

Niagara Falls

2005-05-12T21:48:00.000+01:00

Time for a proper update.

I spent last week in Canada, staying in several expensive hotels, visiting Niagara Falls and Toronto and generally living well - none of which cost me a penny. I won’t excite you with the details of that particular arrangement.

It was my first time in North America, and very enjoyable. My impressions included a feeling of much more space everywhere; wider streets where the stores or houses don’t loom over the road, and therefore more sky. I was disappointed that only a few of the cars were the big, square automobiles that us ‘limeys’ (I got called that by an obnoxious gay guy) associate with America. I was amazed by the cheerful smiles and greetings of checkout girls and fast food servers. Actually I was perturbed by that, it can’t be natural. I think I prefer British surliness from my customer service encounters. Similarly, getting into elevators and having other people start - ugh- making polite conversation with me I felt like saying ‘Haven’t you got any manners!? Leave me alone!’

I was also struck by the unashamed attitude to commerce. Over here, big luminous signs by the road or banners declaring your steaks to be ‘the best in town’ would be considered a bit tacky, a bit brash. Over there, it’s the norm.

Oh, and Niagara Falls were great. They were something I had always wanted to see, and having a 21st floor hotel room overlooking them was very pleasant.

I picked up three poker books whilst I was over there; ‘Championship Omaha’ by McEvoy, ‘The Real Deal’ by Phil Gordon, and ‘The Making of a Poker Player’ by Matt Matros. I’ve started the Matros one, which is okay so far. I don’t have particularly high hopes of the other two, but I couldn’t resist getting one of the very few Omaha books around.

My own poker has been disappointing since I got back. Basically, I went on full tilt on Sunday night, my first session back. I was ahead, took a few beats, and then proceeded to throw chips into the pot in terrible, terrible situations out of frustration and anger. I can blame booze, tiredness, probably some jetlag, but it was a very poor performance.

Since then, I feel I have played very well for three days without really getting rewarded. Tuesday I took a ton of bad cards but kept my head to record only a tiny loss, then came back later and won nicely; the small loss was more important than the decent win. Yesterday sucked. I lost two or three pots that went from my scoop to my opponent’s scoop thanks to four-out rivers. I also bubbled in a sit and go which I played really, really well.

Oh well, the lesson of the last few days is mental control. If I can keep losing the minimum when things are going bad, then the good sessions will be truly valuable rather than being wasted in clawing back needless losses.

I would like things to go well, and to prove to myself that I can avoid tilting, because work is getting to me very badly. I despise my job. I loathe it. I would live on bread and water to get out of there. I would dearly love to get sacked tomorrow.

I am not tiring of these google referals:
how long to get phone connected
romantic nights
worst episode ever
‘caught without a train ticket’

Who I should have voted for

2005-05-12T16:12:00.000+01:00

Who should I vote for? v2

Your expected outcome:

Liberal Democrat

Your actual outcome:

Labour -15
Conservative -14
	Liberal Democrat 47
	UKIP 24
	Green 65

You should vote: Green

The Green Party, which is of course strong on environmental issues, takes a strong position on welfare issues, but was firmly against the war in Iraq. Other key concerns are cannabis, where the party takes a liberal line, and foxhunting, which unsurprisingly the Greens are firmly against. The Greens are also anti-Europe.

Take the test at Who Should You Vote For

Minor league strategy

2005-05-12T13:29:00.000+01:00

My proper catch-up post is on its way. For this moment, just a couple strategy notes from PLO8 and PLO.

1. I think many players worry too much about getting quartered when contemplating a bet on the river. I believe it is worth indeed getting quartered from time to time (or just splitting the pot but paying more rake than you might), to avoid one of two bad things happening if you check it through.

First, you MIGHT be on the right side of the 3/4 with, say, your nut low and lousy one or two pair, it does happen. Secondly, of course, your opponent might fold. Missing out on these two good things is worth risking the odd losing bet when you are indeed quartered.

2. I had a guy the other night, this is in straight PLO, say 'I never understand why people raise before the flop. It is so easy to lose a pot.' What a pillock. I suppose that is why I am so tardy in moving back up to bigger games.

Anyway, in the very hand when he said that, I had raised pre-flop and then took the pot down when I raised on the flop with virtually nothing. I still don't think he got it.

Proper recap of my holiday and return to poker later.

A warm welcome to our Google visitors

2005-05-11T10:57:00.000+01:00

I'm back.

I have a couple of posts planned, but seem to be having trouble finding time to write them. I just thought I should announce my return from North America, in order to avoid 'languishing' status, or being left only those readers who arrive having googled one of the following:

stunning women
one degree of kevin bacon
most valuable commodities
wittgenstein solitude
rude pictures
house-sitting etiquette expectations
worst housemates ever
chewing toothpicks
mammaries mammoth
danish ex girlfriend

A fascinating list, I am so glad I added sitemeter to the blog.

I have been catching up on lots of great blogging since I got home. I have to say that doubleas.blogspot.com absolutely rules - and not just because I seem to get a lot of visitors from his site.

More later.

Shameless money-grabber, part 2

2005-04-28T11:17:00.000+01:00

I have a proper post written, but I can't enter it here at work.

While we wait with bated breath for that, have you seen this netbux thing that people are pimping all over the net?

Well, I'm shamelessly attracted to 'free money' and always fascinated to see how much mileage these various web schemes actually have. So have a look at netbux ('Get paid to search the internet!') through my very own link:

http://netbux.org/?r=61169

Caveat: Jeez my browser here sucks, I'll have to turn it into a proper link when I get home.

Self-justification: I need every penny going, since I still don't have my 'Party' cashout, after thirteen days and counting.

Meanwhile, I have just realised that I will be out of the country for the General Election. I am not too concerned, since my vote is unfortunately registered at my mother's address (a safe Tory seat) rather than at my own address, which is a key Liberal Democrat target. I would be voting Lib Dem if I was here. And with even more conviction after the latest example of New Labour's congenital mendacity. I'm talking about the leaked-at-last Attorney General's legal advice on the legality of going to war in Iraq without the second UN resolution.

What a fucking sad world we allow ourselves to live in.

Give the man his money

2005-04-26T15:29:00.000+01:00

Woohoo, I got a comment! Eat my shorts!

I still don’t have my Party cash-out, in the seventh working day since it was requested. They (the skin I play on) assure me it should arrive ‘this week’. I am not impressed. I might have to go through the hoops of cashing out via Quickpay outlets in future. Not having debit or credit cards is a pain; I advise any young, naïve readers to avoid the mistake I made of getting deeper and deeper into debt, year after year.

Last night I played snooker after work, with poker an afterthought when I got home somewhat drunk. The snooker went okay; I am adding more and more shots to my game, potting more and more balls, but just not quite putting enough shots together in a row to make real breaks. It will come.

Poker when I got in, well I decided I wasn’t in the mood to really concentrate. So I played $10+1 sit and goes, NLHE, much easier to do on autopilot, impossible to lose any real money. I played three, one after the other.

First one: third. Easy peasy to get into the money, was shortest when we got there and busted quickly in a coin-toss of some sort.

Second one: Fourth. Grrr. I was the only one not prepared to let each hand fold round to the big blind time after time, and went out when an opponent took an absolute age to call my button raise, with her middling Ace. I guess there is some folding equity on the bubble when people are idiots, as she was clearly not happy to call.

Third one: Fourth again. Drat, drat and double drat. Pretty much the same story as above, this time I went out with 8T versus A7. The flop was 689 and the damn river made his straight. It’s a fine line between going out penniless and being big stack and in the money.

I enjoyed the games. It is mad starting with only 800 chips, and soon becomes a lottery if a few don’t distribute their stacks and leave early on. However, people make all kinds of terrible decisions, and display a complete lack of awareness of pot odds and such. I ought to play higher than $10+1, but they are just a bit of light relief really.

A23 brigade

2005-04-25T12:00:00.000+01:00

It is most odd, and surprisingly irritating, to hear my colleague speak in an entirely different accent on the phone to her mother than she does at all other times. And I do mean a COMPLETELY different accent.

Perhaps it irritated me especially today because the lengthy conversation resulted in my having to answer call after call that was meant for her. Work, eh? Actually, I am toying with the idea of setting myself a date to quit and then just doing it. Maybe in about six months. I am considering this because it is probably the only way to make myself actually work towards building up a bankroll with which I can have a go at it. Setting myself targets of hours played has been moderately successful - I didn’t make the last target but it was a great motivator, and am going to make the twenty hour target I set for this Friday.

Since losing on Thursday I have played with greater focus, and done well. I think I’ve won about $15 an hour, including winning a $10 NLHE sit and go that I played just for a laugh on Saturday morning. I found that rather easy and might play a few more.

Last night I had a very nice session of PLO8, despite beginning by playing a hand in a manner that caused one opponent to mock me by implying he was going to tag me as a fish in his notes. Still, I don’t think I was as far out of line as he reckoned. I remain convinced that you can make more money with unconventional hands in PLO8 than the A23 brigade realise, and my $/bb figure in Poker Tracker Omaha looks very healthy thankyouverymuch.

Actually, I need to do some work in PTO. Frankly, my database is of limited use for opponent-tracking at the moment, since I don’t have a single opponent with even a tenth as many hands recorded as me, making comparisons difficult. However, it occurs to me, after reading a discussion of high-only starting hands on 2+2, that I might benefit from examining the stats regarding the various hands I have played. I believe that I make money from high-only starting hands, but I can see some logical reasons why it might be quite difficult to do so, and want to check out just how they have performed for me.

Moving on, the weekend overall was quite pleasant considering my complete lack of funds. I played snooker on Saturday afternoon - my friend paid - and felt very relaxed and played very well. ‘Doctor Who’ was pretty good in the evening.

Lots of thoughts about girls and such, too. On Friday I got a rare phone call from my ex, which was a really pleasant surprise. And on Sunday I went on a family outing to a place by the sea where me and The Girl I Am No Longer Seeing spent a pleasant Sunday afternoon not so long ago. I found that a little melancholy, I must admit, and dwelt somewhat on my decision to finish with her.

The choice never changes; the pleasure of a beautiful body next to you in bed, the ego-boost of having ‘possession’ of a pretty creature, the good times spent together, versus total freedom and self-indulgence. With the added factor that my complete unwillingness to enter into ‘living together’ probably dooms any relationship to a painful end at some point anyway.

Curse

2005-04-22T13:33:00.000+01:00

The good and bad of being at Party, or rather a Party ‘skin.’

The good; I got my first rakeback payment efficiently and promptly, so I can now recommend rakerebate.net unreservedly. The bad; I requested a cashout by direct bank transfer last Friday morning, a service that promised the money in my account within five working days. Here we are five working days later and it isn’t there yet.This is a somewhat large inconvenience to me, as I don’t get paid til Monday and the entire point of the cashout was to make sure I had a little folding for this weekend. I am pretty pissed off.

I might be a little less pissed off if I hadn’t lost last night. Total lack of focus on the game(s), and I really must apply myself better. In my defence, I was catching up on all the websites and blogs that I had missed for the best part of a week, so I won’t usually be as distracted. Still, second set in a multiway action pot is clearly not going to win in PLO, never mind PLO8 when I’m likely only shooting for half the pot anyway. Bad, bad play. I might have to move up a level so that sticking my whole stack in with a ‘well you never know’ shrug isn’t quite so easy.

Or maybe I just lost ‘cause of the cashout curse. Yeah, that’s what it was…

Return of the.. oh who cares?

2005-04-21T17:15:00.000+01:00

I’m back. Had a blast at the snooker, and when we played on our return last night I managed breaks of 27 and 23 in one frame – quite an achievement at my level of ability.

It seems unlikely that anyone followed my snooker betting picks, since most visitors arrive here having searched for ‘rude pictures’ or ‘stunning women’, but if you did you will have made a small profit on the first round match selections. If you are still awake, Jimmy White looked in excellent form and is being rather foolishly dismissed by the bookmakers with a quote of 7/4 to beat Matthew Stevens. In my view this match is as close as they come, so 7/4 has to represent good value.

Many of the American poker bloggers have written about filing taxes recently. I don’t know how different it is over there in terms of income tax, but it sure is nice not to have to worry about poker income in that respect.

Anyway, it is a while since I went an entire week without playing; I wonder if I will be rusty - or raring to go and full of application and concentration. I am embarking on another time-challenge. I want to get twenty hours in by next Friday, because I am going away again for a week on Saturday 30th April. My destination is a closely guarded secret on this occasion.

Oh, and it did feel good to spend quite freely at the snooker and know that every penny in my wallet had just been withdrawn from one of my poker accounts.

Snooker picks

2005-04-14T23:54:00.000+01:00

Time for some ante-post World Snooker bets I think....

It is hard to pick much value out of the outright winner market, although a back-to-form John Higgins with a pretty easy path to the semifinals is pretty good at 8/1.

Neil Robertson might be worth a cheeky punt to make the highest break of the tournament, at 50/1. He's a top eight player of the next year or so for sure, is a brilliant break-builder, and from watching him practice lately he looks bang in form. Unfortunately he drew Hendry in round one so he may only get one match. 50/1 will do though.

For match betting I like the follwing handicap selections:

5/6 Barry Pinches +2.5 versus Doherty
Pinches could beat Doherty, who has had a poor old time ever since losing in the first round here last year. You can get 2/1 on Pinches, but I'd take the handicap.

5/6 Robert Milkins +3.5 v Mark Williams
OK, I hate Mark Williams and might be biased, but despite a recent upturn he is not the player he was. Again, Milkins could beat him even without the handicap.

EVS Neil Robertson +3.5 v Hendry
Hendry will have been gutted to draw Robertson. It all depends if the Aussie falls foul of Crucible debutante nerves, but he seems the most laid-back character you could meet.

5/6 Jimmy White -2.5 v Fergal O'Brien
Getting onto dodgy ground now, but I do think the Whirlwind will put mediocre O'Brien away. People will tell you that White has no chance in this tournament, but he made two finals last season and can still mix it with the best.

5/6 Peter Ebdon -2.5 v Quinten Hann
I do like watching Hann, even though he is undoubtedly a nob. However, Peter Ebdon is exactly the sort of opponent he won't beat, because Ebdon will mercilessly exploit Quinten's dreadful, impatient temperament. I would love to pick up a ticket for this match. and will try to do so.

So, I am off to Sheffield tomorrow for five days of snooker and other fun. I had loads of other stuff to write about but cannot be arsed right now. Suffice it to say that I have put a few more hours in this evening and it has not gone well. A cocky lack of focus has been partly to blame, plus an inability to hit a damn card.

Bad hand

2005-04-13T17:10:00.000+01:00

Ouch. I have injured my right hand, and can’t pick things up very easily. I did it by falling over my own bicycle while walking with The Girl I Am No Longer Seeing. We met for a quick drink yesterday evening, and it became clear that I really did hurt her. I feel pretty lousy about it.

I also have my moments of regret; giving up a girl with a lovely body and great chemistry doesn’t always seem the most sensible act. But I am mostly loving the total freedom I created for myself

I managed to get three hours in last night, taking to me just over thirteen in the 25 Hour Challenge. I thought that pride (in quoting my $20+ hourly here) was coming before a fall as I sunk to minus thirty fairly quickly, unable to either hit a flop or buy a pot. However, patience and good judgement – including dealing with a maniac at one table – won through. I recorded a decent enough win, though it pulled me just under $20 per hour for the duration of the ‘challenge’.

I’m trying to take the positive view about pillaging my bankroll for my trip to the snooker. The positive view is this; I am taking a five day holiday, and poker is paying just about every penny involved. Excellent!

Once I return I am going to become Super Grinder, building an untouchable bankroll until I am playing at a respectable level.

Failing the challenge

2005-04-12T19:24:00.000+01:00

The 25 hour challenge is really not going well. Thanks to snooker, my immense social popularity and good looks, and being a little tired and ill lately, I have only managed ten hours in the seven days since I began. Oops.

On the other hand, I am winning very nicely in those ten hours. I don't know what to make of my results lately. They are very good, and I have been playing mostly PLO8 and mostly Party. It seems like I can make a ludicrous hourly rate (in proportion to the size of the stakes) but of course the sample is still small. In fact, I need to catch up on importing almost a week's worth of hands into Poker Tracker Omaha, just to to see exactly how I stand.

I am definitely going to be moving up to bigger games at Party in the very near future. There seem to be so many people who don't 'get' certain ideas about playing PLO8 and I don't expect that to change enormously at the next level.

Besides that guff, I am realising more and more the extent to which being a winning cash game player is about emotional control. When I am in that zone of detachment - able to withstand the losses and accept the gambles with equanimity, just keep making right decisions - I feel I can very rarely lose. I think most of my significant mistakes in poker - the vast majority in fact - have occurred as a direct result of over-emotional decision-making. Subtle tilt, in other words. I bet the same is true of you.

Romantic nights at the movies

2005-04-11T02:00:00.000+01:00

I’ve made a few forward steps in the past month; joining the party at Party, getting rakeback, adding sitemeter to my blog. And winning quite well, too.

Sitemeter has been interesting since I added it on Friday. I’ve had about thirty visitors in almost three days, but it seems that the majority of them have arrived via a web search for ‘rude pictures’. I believe I wrote about using my camera-phone to send some to The Girl I Am No Longer Seeing. No wonder the average visitor only stays 50 seconds, when they find there aren’t actually any rude pictures here.

I’m not doing too well on my ‘25 hours by Friday’ target. This is despite putting a chart up on my wall… I’m only at nine hours, leaving sixteen to do in five days. I don’t think I am going to make it, but at least it has been nine good hours so far; I am over $20 per hour, though I have been running pretty good.

Sadly, it looks like I am going to have to take a large chunk out of my bankroll this week, with my trip to the World Snooker championships coming up; train fare, hotel, spending money. It is a real shame, as I have built it nicely over the last couple of months and have four figures in there for the first time in months. This sets back my long-term plans to build the roll, move up a little in size of game, and ultimately consider quitting work or at least going part-time.

Mean Gene wrote a little about ‘The Cook, The Thief, His Wife and Her Lover’ on Sunday, a Peter Greenaway film. It was an amusing post, as he strongly advised never to have a first date at that movie - and that’s exactly what I did, about ten years ago. It was with the beautiful Danish girl who has remained a good friend all these years later, and the movie was her choice. I quite liked it, but the soundtrack is more worth a listen than the movie a viewing.

This reminds me that I once went to see ‘Seven’ with a fairly new girlfriend, on Valentine’s Day! Again, it was her choice and not mine. What a nasty - and reasonable but over-rated - film.

PS There are four large ads for Party Poker in Britain’s biggest-selling daily newspaper today.

Shameless money-grabber

2005-04-07T17:12:00.000+01:00

The target-o-meter shows 4 hours and (both less and more importantly) $105.

Chelsea did win, 4-2 with Bayern’s second goal coming from a shocking penalty decision in the last minute. So my money was pretty safe throughout the second half, and in a very rare occurrence I won more sports betting than pokering yesterday.

Some jumbled thoughts:

1. Amy Calistri, just about the only thing worth reading on the awful pokerpages.com, hints that Barry Shulman is trying to make a big cut from the proposed Andy Beal/Corporation game, just for printing the ‘open letters’ between the two parties. Par for the course for Shulman. A classless letter to potential advertisers in Cardplayer Europe plus the debut of Mrs Shulman as lead feature writer don’t reflect brilliantly, in my opinion, on a magazine whose contents I find increasingly uninteresting.

2. People arriving early for appointments are, in my opinion, equally as bad as those arriving late. If I am expecting and preparing for your visit to my offices at 1pm, why should I suddenly have to meet you half an hour early?

3. I’m having a big argument with my best mate, which is getting me down.

4. I should get home tonight to find a new DVD has arrived in the mail. Kind of a specialist thing. I’m looking forward to it.

And that is all today from the desk of 89TJ.

Chelsea will win

2005-04-06T17:14:00.000+01:00

I started working on my little target last night, quite successfully. I got in three hours, either side of an evening at the pub. I won $94 too, which was a decent start.

Got quite lucky in one pot, calling a pretty large turn bet because I had an uncounterfeitable low draw and a slim chance of high. As it happened the other dude was going high, which was my worst-case scenario, but I hit my slim high draw to scoop.

I’m sticking twenty dollars (damn poker got me thinking in dollars all the time) on Chelsea beating Bayern Munich tonight. Earlier I thought it was a strong bet and I should be lumping a serious amount on, but now I am not so sure. I do think Chelsea will win comfortably – Bayern looked less than stellar in beating Arsenal – but 7/10 is not a great price in a Champions’ League quarter final.

I place very few sports bets these days; the margins feel so small and the judgements so uncertain in comparison with poker decisions.

Oblivious

2005-04-04T17:18:00.000+01:00

Just an aside; in my two weeks on Party (predominantly American) I have already seen more bitching and name-calling than I saw in the previous three months on my usual site (predominantly European).

My own play has continued to be good – but not frequent enough – over the weekend. However, being either distracted or drunk has had an effect in a couple of larger pots.

First I failed to realise I had a straight flush in one hand, so when the river paired the board I did not make as much money as I should have.

Secondly, pretty drunk, the river gave me trips (I thought) but put a flush on board. It was checked to me by three players with one left behind me, and I drunkenly went all-in thinking that maybe nobody had the flush, they might have all been going low, and/or I might even get a small flush to fold. Well, the button called instantly with a king high flush and the others folded. Damn!

But what’s this - the chips are coming my way!? Oh, the turn had given me two pair, so my trips on the river actually made me the nut full house. A nice outcome, but I could do without playing drunk enough to miss such subtleties… I suspect that if someone up front had bet I would have folded.

Inevitable 'Rounders' post

2005-04-01T17:16:00.000+01:00

‘Rounders’ was on BBC1 last night. I loved it first time I saw it, but then it was such a novelty. Watching it last night I realised how what a truly lame film it actually is. The characterisation is sketchy, elements of the plot (and some of the poker) ridiculous, the relationship between Mike and his girl completely incomprehensible.

I don’t really see Famke Janssen’s character being so hot for Mike either; she must come into contact with plenty of guys with plenty of folding in their pocket, and Matt Damon isn’t like a physical god. Heavens, some people tell me I look like him, which just confirms that comment.

Anyway, I think it is no surprise that the creators of ‘Rounders’ have now turned out a TV series that is getting so widely panned in the States. It amuses me, for some reason, to see a number of screen names on Party based around some combination of ‘matador’ and ‘tilt’.

I played last night for an hour and a half, and played very well indeed. Many judicious folds, good calls, and well-judged raises. I still lost four bucks though; the killer card never quite dropped for me when I built a nice pot.

I really, probably ought to move up at least a little. I am at the real crappy end of games, and have finally accepted that really I am a bit better than that. Of course, I have no qualms about beating up on rubbish opponents… I would just like to think I would win greater amounts a little higher up the food chain. An ongoing dilemma to mull over.

I am going to the doctor on Monday, as I am getting wrist problems whilst using my mouse at work. And, the bad news of the day, my fucking chips appear to have somehow gone missing from among the small crowd I used to play a regular homegame with. In other words, some areshole has decided to steal them, or at least that is how it appears until somebody says ‘Ohh I had them all along’. I spent quite a bit on those chips, and put trust in these guys to look after them while I was living out of town.

New Hicks biography alert alert

2005-03-31T17:14:00.000+01:00

I haven’t been playing much poker over the last few days; only one night in the last three in fact. I am pleased with myself about this, since I haven’t been feeling lively or very awake. I’m dragging myself to work, but am still very tired and weak from this illness I’ve had.

Tuesday night when I did play, I played very well for just one hour. I think I have got a handle on the Party PLO8 games now. It has amused me leafing through the ‘Two Plus Two’ O8 forum, where people seem such… nits, I think is the poker word. They are so concerned with the ‘dollars voluntarily put in the put’ percentage and suchlike, and seem amazed that their databases show that some people playing relatively high numbers of hands are – gasp! - winning. It is almost as if there is more to the game than only playing one hand in eight!

Quit being so fixated on the easily-measurable, auto-rateable stats and try thinking through some of the actual situations you find yourself in, guys.

I guess I will never be a chronic multi-tabler because I do like to extract winnings from situations, rather than play more or less by rote.

Disclaimer: Many, though not all, those 2+2 posts relate to limit O8 rather than pot limit.

So, I bought some vitamin pills the other day as I stagger towards feeling better and looking after myself. I just noticed it says on the label ‘Not to be used as a substitute for a balanced diet’. Well duh, why else would I buy the damn things?

Irritation: All the clocks here are wrong. My phone says 1:13, my PC says 1:19 and its actually 1:11. I guess the trick is to arrive in the morning by my watch, and leave at night by the PC clock.

Visited ‘Borders’ at lunch, and discovered a new Bill Hicks biography has just been published. Had to buy it.

Movies movies movies

2005-03-27T21:18:00.000+01:00

Still feeling absolutely lousy. I've not touched poker today, and it has been a rare pleasure to curl up and watch a DVD.

I watched 'Back to the Future 2' and almost all the extras. What a great film! I recall being disappointed when it first came out, but I can't imagine why as it is packed with so much invention and wit and clever design. The way it weaves around scenes from the original movie is quite breathtaking. A worthy sequel to a true classic.

Tomorrow night a film called 'Wonder Boys' is on TV. Its a movie with some emotional significance for me, as I watched it on video with the woman with whom I had an affair three or four years ago. We watched it naked, with champagne, cigarettes, dope - and strawberries which found their way into some interesting places. It was a very special night, though of course the memory is soured somewhat by the deceit that underpinned it and the pain that came later.

Anyway, for one reason or another I can't recall too much of the movie after the first half hour, so I will probably give it a watch.

Man flu

2005-03-27T00:28:00.000Z

I'm not well, which has not been well-timed as its the four-day Easter weekend. Boo hoo.

England beat Northern Ireland 4-0 today in World Cup Qualifying. Poor opposition, but a very impressive performance. England are in the fortunate position of having players in many positions who are pretty much as good as anyone in the world. It remains to be seen whether cautious coach Eriksson will balls it up again by going defensive when it counts, in Germany next year.

So, I have now got Pokertracker's Beta version for Omaha. I only just downloaded it and imported my hand histories, so now I am trying to make sense of it all. The things that jump right out are:

- I have lost money on the button and won the same amount from the big blind. A bizarre stat, but I am only on a thousand hands. I've lost more in the cut-off.

- It is fascinating to see the split of winners and losers. Two losers for every winner.

- It is nice to see my rake totalled up for me, given the rakeback deal I have.

Overall, I haven't done nearly as well as I would like in this first week at Party. I think the biggest factor has been the lack of 6-max games. I caught myself during a losing session the other day playing as if it were 6-max, because I am so used to that. Sessions at my old site of 6-max have reminded me that I do prefer that type of game. Still, it is great to have options, two different sites with different strengths and weaknesses. I like to think that I am quite good at adjusting to different games and conditions, so I better prove it.

That is all I have time or energy for right now. I'd love to write more, or play more, but I really don't feel well.

PS Met my ex on Tuesday night, which was nice. Seems like I miss her more than she misses me, which is fine.

Adjustments

2005-03-22T16:31:00.000Z

So, I’m on Party; my screen name there is on a Bill Hicks theme.

I ended up depositing through Western Union, so you don’t even need a credit or debit card to play online poker folks. It cost me a few quid to deposit that way, but the 25% bonus (worked off in six hours) more than covered that. My rakeback deal came via www.rakeback.net and I was very happy with their administration, though the proof of the pudding will be in actually getting paid of course.

I’ve been trying to tally up what sort of rakeback I think I am earning but I quickly forget about it so the first payment will be a surprise, pleasant or unpleasant.

My results have hit a plateau since that initial entry. There are some adjustments I need to make due to the generally very poor standard of play; more than once I have made what I considered routine folds to heavy action in a three-way hand, only to find I would actually have three-quartered a nice pot. (I’ve been playing mostly PLO8 so far).
I think in general I am going to need to bluff less and value bet and call more. Also, I have to pay more attention; I can’t count on having two or three players whose tendencies I already know, like on my normal site. The turnover is just too fast on Party. I also think it SUCKS that they don’t have six-max tables of Omaha.

Another adjustment is that I have to get used to the dreadful, corny graphics. My particular gripe is that I think the cards in front of each player are too small. I frequently fail to notice a player is still in the pot. Of course that’s for me to deal with, but I don’t really see why the cards should be so microscopic.

Actually I played at my normal site yesterday, for whatever reason (the comfort of the familiar perhaps). Made only a tiny profit for a few hours work, thanks largely to making a dreadful all-in raise against a frequent raiser who turned out to have the goods. That pot alone would have made it a perfectly acceptable session, so a big ‘Oops’.

I also suffered my worst beat in a long while, in a two-table sit ‘n’ go. I raised preflop (five handed as only eleven players left at this stage) with A9. One caller from the blinds. He bet the AT4 flop, I raised all-in for what was almost all his chips, and he thought for a while before calling with K5! The turn and river came QJ to make him a straight, and instead of having a nice stack to shoot for the money places I was out.
There are 990 possible turns and rivers there, and I win the hand with 943 of ‘em.

Won’t be playing tonight as I am off up north for an early work meeting tomorrow. I will be visiting my ex (the proper one, not the recent one) and am really looking forward to seeing her.

Fight For Your Right

2005-03-20T01:20:00.000Z

I am on Party!

At long ever last.

Iggy and everyone else is right, these players are absolutely awful. I'm winning stupid amounts at PLO8, despite a four out river costing me a monster. It is unreal how bad these people play.

More exciting, I am now in a world of RAKEBACK. Its almost like being a prop player, but with no obligation to start or maintain bad games. I am loving it any time a pot I am not involved in becomes a monster resulting in the maximum rake, knowing I have just made X cents for doing absolutely nothing.

I also realise I now have the opportunity to use Pokertracker, if I so choose.

It is all most exciting, after playing the same one site exclusively for years. It also makes the dream seem all the more attainable.

Happy days!

Three seconds

2005-03-17T16:16:00.000Z

Every three seconds a child dies in Africa of hunger or preventable disease. That is thirty thousand children, every day. Thirty thousand children.

How about we try to improve this planet for those children, rather than bringing more of our own little vanity projects into the world? I am thinking long and hard about how I use my time and some of my immeasurable wealth at the moment.

Meanwhile, poker content:

The film 'Cool Hand Luke' has some personal significance for me. You probably know the line 'Sometimes nothing can be a pretty cool hand', and I've enjoyed winning a couple of pots with nothing recently. I won a monster early pot in Sunday's tournament with seven-high (missed flush draw versus a missed tiny straight draw), and last night I managed to scoop a three-way pot limit Omaha8 pot with just a Queen to pair the one on the board. That was particularly nice.I haven't had a losing day since the debacle two weeks ago (hm, did I write that yesterday?), so that's good.

Twenty time better

2005-03-16T18:06:00.000Z

How long can you keep waking at an ungodly hour and schlepping into an office - even a fairly pleasant office - day after day? Especially when you have never had, and never will have, the the career ambition gene; the ability to actually give a shit about what you do at work beyond the fact that showing up pays the rent.

Most certainly, if I got into a rakeback deal and put in the hours and played with discipline, I could squeeze a living out of poker. I guess deposit bonusses are not to be ignored either. I do have an issue with joining new sites due to the fact that I cannot use credit or debit cards at present, but I am quite certain I can make arrangements with a co-operative friend or sibling.

Incidentally, I've been reading around a little bit, and some sources lead me to believe that you are deemed to have contributed to rake even in hands to which you have not contributed a cent; eg. the rake is simply divided by the number of players at the table. Can that be right??

Anyway, that little dream won't die. I'm not in the camp that feels I would need to earn 'serious' money to make it worthwhile. A living wage with a little extra on to save up toward holiday and sickpay would be enough for me; I put the quality of life and freedom of schedule higher than making a fortune.

I bought a new MP3 player yesterday. It is about twenty times better than the one I bough nine months ago, and cost only £30 more. I bought that other one at a really bad time!

Vanity Project

2005-03-15T15:48:00.000Z

"Coupled life and family life bring out everything that's childish in everyone involved" - Philip Roth, 'The Dying Animal'

I read a nice little interview/questionnaire with a very good poker player yesterday, but the line about his new young son bugged me. It was along the lines of ‘A bad day at the office and bad beats in poker are put in perspective’.

Now, I hate to come over all misanthropic, but does anyone really need to embark on the vanity project of bringing yet another life into the world, in order to ‘put things in perspective’? I find it quite easy to put things in perspective just by opening my eyes and taking a look at the fucking world. I don’t know about you, but I live in an over-crowded city in an over-crowded country in an over-crowded (with humans anyway) world. I think there should be a moratorium on any new births for a calendar year.

I know I sound like a miserable bastard, but something about that shining-eyes ‘my little boy’ crap you get from new fathers really makes me want to puke.

Of course, it could be that I’ll reach my fifties and suddenly tire of the meaningless life of unattached self-gratification, and feel really stupid.

SS2

2005-03-14T11:31:00.000Z

Well, I have to say that ‘Super System 2’ has been a little bit disappointing. I suppose I didn’t make enough allowance for the fact that many of the sections just don’t interest me that much. I am open to playing a variety of games, but really the likelihood of me playing triple draw lowball is extremely low.

The PLO section was a let-down, with perhaps one little point that made me think. I do like Doyle’s section on No Limit, but it is virtually unchanged since the first edition and I read that section in Borders a few weeks back.

Actually, for simple reading pleasure I found the online chapter entertaining, and was amused by Doyle’s suggestion that if there were a button to tip the virtual dealer then many players would actually use it. I think he might be right, although I wouldn’t touch it myself. Actually, I am thinking hard about value for money; my site has raised its rake slightly - or rather is raking more pots - and I am minded to actually look elsewhere, particularly somewhere with rakeback possibilities. Seems to me rakeback makes an enormous difference to your bottom line, and I feel like a monkey for currently missing out.

I’m still playing nowhere near enough hours, for social and private reasons, but continuing to win every time I sit. I made another good run in the Sunday night multi that I won two weeks previously, and really felt good about my chances of making the final table again. However, I lost a chunk with about 70 players left and then went bust with AK versus AA, perhaps earlier than I needed to. Still, I am not interested in playing without a really big stack any more and I would have gone broke on the hand however I played it, with both an Ace and King on the flop.Last night I got bad beat out of a reasonable PLO pot, and also took a bit of a beat to only come third in a PLO sit n go. What struck me was that those were the first bad beats I can recall in the past week or so.

Oh, I liked something Jennifer Harman said in her recent Cardplayer interview - one of the only things I’ve ever read that actually helps psychologically with bad beats. She suggested looking on beats as a business overhead. That really clicked with me.

Hurricane Higgins

2005-03-11T11:21:00.000Z

I’m playing well at the moment, and also think I am getting to grips with PLO8 at last - I’ve played smaller in order to try out a few things and feel I have learnt some things.I’m not really playing enough hours as I’m quite busy socially, but have received a little financial bonus this week which takes the pressure off somewhat.

I really need to pull together my records for the past three weeks; I fell back into scrawling each session on a different scrap of paper or old envelope. I’m particularly interested in totting up my heads-up results, where I think I am winning at least two thirds of matches and making an ok hourly rate when you consider how short the encounters often are.

Finally, just a note on tournament poker and the oft-debated issue of deal-making. There are those who feel it should not be allowed - or at least should be reported as having happened - in the interests of the image/integrity of the game. I have heard it suggested by other people that in fact deal-making might go in other sports, such as golf, behind the scenes.

Well, I recently read a biography of Alex Higgins (80’s snooker superstar) which described a deal between Higgins and his opponent in the final of a tournament, more or less along the lines of splitting the money and playing for the trophy. Why should we assume sportsmen have changed since then?

A swift couple of pints

2005-03-07T18:55:00.000Z

Just before my friend and I left the pub last night (I was buying the drinks; the penalty of having friends even poorer than me) the jukebox began playing 'Achey Breaky Heart' by Billy Ray Cyrus. I guess its a good way to empty a bar. Strangely catchy tune though. and it made me think of the late Bill Hicks and his idea for a TV pilot that, to my knowledge, never got made.

I am playing good poker. I am pleased with the way I have picked myself up off the floor after that disastreous episode of alcoholic tilt, and have more than tripled the bankroll I had left in the past five days without playing many hours. My new-found tournament approach - there's no great mystery, just a willingness to take more risks in pursuit of a big stack - yielded second place in a two-table sit and go yesterday. I played nearly faultless again, I reckon, but then tanked the heads-up by seeking to finish it off too quickly when in fact the blinds didn't demand it.

Today's action saw me win a couple heads-up freezeouts, go out first hand in another two-table event (walkin' back to Houston, oops) , continue playing well despite losing in Pot Limit Omaha until eventually being nicely up when the table broke up, and finally post a reasonable win in a quick half-hour of PLO8. I say finally, I guess there may be more later.

I read the Moneymaker book, and would recommend it. It isn't earth-shattering but is a nice easy read and a lovely story set against he and his wife's debts and such. I think I preferred it to 'Positively Fifth Street' by McManus which I found somewhat over-written (and over-rated).

Now I'm into 'Super System 2' and am enjoying it. If nothing else there's a ton of pages there, manna to a very fast reader like myself.

Worst. Episode. Ever

2005-03-04T17:07:00.000Z

I put off writing this entry as long as I could. I hit one of the lowest points in my poker life this week.

On Sunday night I won the multi-table tournament and gave myself a really nice bankroll to play with. 72 hours later I was in the middle of a drunken bout of full-on tilt, throwing away almost the last of what I had won.

Thank heavens I finally reached the point of quitting and going to bed, with just enough money left to try to recover the next day. But overall I am disgusted with myself. I lost a couple of big 60/40 pots, sure, but overall I played like an idiot. I was trying to be more aggressive than usual, but was not clear-headed enough to lay hands down when the situation obviously demanded it.

What a waste of an opportunity.

Still, there is no point dwelling on it. I’ve been trying to put my considerable sangfroid to use ever since in trying to accept it and make a fresh start. I’ve succeeded fairly well, playing a little smaller even than usual and making quite easy, steady wins. Gently does it.

But still, what a waste of an opportunity to get out of this rut of cannibalising the bankroll at the end of each month. I could finally have grown it to a level where I could still make some withdrawals yet see it grow overall.

Now I am itching to get home and find my two books have arrived. Not optimistic, the won’t go through the letterbox and I am sure my arsewipe housemates (either unemployed, shift-working or reclusive) won’t have been able to drag themselves to the front door when a postman knocked in the morning.

Disturbing slide

2005-03-02T17:11:00.000Z

I am slipping into some good habits and some bad habits. I’m working harder and feeling more motivated at work (whilst still dreaming of the exit), but I am getting sloppy living on my own; chores and such getting overlooked for another hour of fag-fuelled poker, personal hygiene standards lowering with the end of my relationship, and getting up later and later in the morning.

This disturbing slide must be stopped. Perhaps next month.

Talking of dreaming of the exit, I was chatting with a friend who has been an online pro for some time and it turns out he plays at least 80 hours a week. Bloody hell! I could most certainly make a living if I played that long, but I don’t think I could hack it. Mind you, he doesn’t multi-table much.

I really would love to return to the days I spent (about 90 of them, ha ha) playing poker for a living, only with the added proviso of actually making a profit. But going pro, making it my business - can I be bothered to draw up a health and safety policy or ‘appropriate internet use’ guidelines?

Oh, last night I played about three hours and lost a little. Damn, that’s not supposed to happen. I played the $5+1 tourney again, swaggering in as a champion and departing after ten minutes when my pocket Kings ran into pocket Aces (and King-Queen, but never mind that). I entered a PLO sit and go, been a while since I played those; I played extremely well but only managed a financially pitiful third.

I’m on a poker buzz right now because I have just ordered two books from Amazon, courtesy of a kind colleague and their debit card. I’ve gone for ‘Super System 2’ and ‘Moneymaker’. Will they find a place on my shelf, or join ‘Zen and the Art of Poker’ on eBay?

IP Freely

2005-03-01T17:21:00.000Z

Apologies to anyone who saw the last entry here three times under two different titles, blogger was playing up.

I played some very mediocre snooker last night, fuelled by lager of course. Played cash for a couple of hours when I got in, one table each of PLO and PLO8. As usual I won at straight Omaha and lost at hi-lo. I really don’t know why I can’t win at 8-or-better, and I need to give it some careful examination. If it is simply not going to be a profitable game for me then I need to cut it out – this message brought to you by our Department of Obvious.

Still, I won a decent amount for a couple hours of – to be honest - fairly drunk play. I was giving it loads in the chat, which I expect masks the reality that I am a cold-blooded, dead-eyed poker assassin. Or whatever. I played quite freely, thanks to the alcohol and also thanks to having a reasonable bankroll once more.

Today I had the chance to pop into Borders at lunchtime, and was quite excited to see ‘Super System’ on the shelf, until I realised that it was the original and not ‘Super System 2’. I didn’t buy it, but might have a closer look when I have more time. There were quite a few new poker books there since my last visit, but it is quite frustrating when most books don’t even touch on your favourite game.

At the moment I would quite like to get hold of Chris Moneymaker’s book, and also ‘Harrington on Hold ‘Em’.

Final Table

2005-02-28T17:16:00.001Z

I had a great weekend on the whole, although I wish I had been decisive and headed up north for a party over which I vacillated for days.

I saw a play on Friday night with my brother, then saw my football team win (an unusual event) on Saturday and went to a dreadful ‘party’ in the evening. I didn’t feel too clever getting out of bed to play football for the first time in about two years on Sunday morning, but I actually played pretty well. My body has been grumbling at me ever since.

Anyway, the crowning glory of the weekend came late on Sunday night, when I finally sat down to play some poker. (I had played a bundle more heads-up freezeouts over Friday and Saturday, with mediocre results – although it seems that I generally only lose if I suffer a beat on a key hand).

In short, I entered a $5+1 multi and finally made the final table out of 258 runners. It was an up and down ride, including losing AJ versus A6 fairly early in a pot which would have put me in the top three stacks. I got lucky three or four times myself, but generally felt I played very, very well for the entire three and three quarter hours. I’ve altered some little things (or maybe not so little) in my tournament game recently, largely based on insights from other blogs, and don’t feel it is entirely a coincidence that I finally made a final at this point in time.

I was especially pleased that I went up several gears once we got into the money (30 spots). There was effectively no difference between the money for 30th and for 10th, which seems ridiculous to me but led me to adjust my play when others weren’t. Why hang around at that point, when going out 28th is no worse than going out 10th? I chose to push for a shot at having a decent stack at the final table.

I got there about 8th in chips, but with a reasonably even spread of stacks. At this point a placing in the 5th or 6th region would have made me happy (financially at least) so I went back to a more balanced game; prepared to move up the ladder as people exited, but certainly not prepared to get overly pressured by the blinds and go out meekly.

As it happens, I ran quite hot at the beginning of the final table and was soon in the last 6 or 7 before going card-dead for a spell (I picked no better than 5-high for a run of about seven hands at one point). Ah, the details are already getting hazy because I have never been the type who remembers hands for very long.

I recall losing with AJ versus A9 for a pot that would have made me chip leader, then shortly after winning a three-way with QQ versus JJ and some rubbish. Suddenly we were down to five and I was right in the hunt and beginning to fancy myself. I believe I am competent short-handed, but I won’t deny I picked up some hands. I believe I got AA twice and AK twice around this period.

With four left, I was leader or close to it and managed to retain that status most of the time with good aggressive play. There was a strong player to my right, while the other two seemed a little more hamstrung by the now large differences in prize money for each spot. In the end things went perfectly for me, as I managed to catch the strong guy ‘at it’ once or twice and eventually knocked him out. He would probably have beaten me heads-up, but now I was heads up with approximately a 3-1 chip lead. The other guy wasn’t prepared to stand up to my pressure and I finished him off after only a few hands, to record my first ever multi-table win.

I am absolutely delighted! I get a spot in a weekly freeroll for tourney winners, which I guess I should take up, but the money from this win is so very welcome. I didn’t get around to depositing any money on Friday and hence had to continue piddling about with the micro heads-up matches over the weekend, but now I don’t need to deposit. Fantastic timing…

The pleasure from the win is also enormous, besides the cash. It is easy to believe it will never happen for you, after you have exited your fourth or fifth (or tenth) tourney in a row after losing a big pot with a dominating hand. Just making the final table would have given me a great boost plus renewed belief that I know how to play tournaments. Playing strongly at the final table and winning the whole damn thing naturally feels ten times better. Oh, and of course I know that winning a five buck event doesn’t make me Dan Harrington.

I guess I may be more inclined to play multi table tournaments now, but they will only ever be a sideshow to cash games.

After the diatribe

2005-02-24T14:33:00.000Z

The phone line was unexpectedly working when I got home from work after Monday’s diatribe. I think it happened because during my last phone call on Monday afternoon I mentioned (truthfully) that the local newspaper was interested in the story.

So – at last! – I could settle down and play online poker in my own space, with no distractions. Well, no distractions that I did not choose to have myself. Unfortunately, thanks to my enforced and maddening break from the game, I chose to dive into the first empty seat rather than wait perhaps five minutes to get into a good game. The seat was in a game four times bigger than what I normally play… Can you see what’s coming?

Yes, by playing in too big a game and suffering a below-average session of luck, I murdered most of my pitiful remaining bankroll. Until payday I am now reduced to playing bottom-feeder heads-up matches. I quite enjoy them, and am convinced they are profitable for me, but it hurts not to be able to sit in a good Omaha game if I see one.

Since Monday, my girl has been staying. Unfortunately, yesterday evening a phone call out of the blue from my Danish ex-girlfriend (but long-time friend) triggered a fairly bad argument which covered much familiar ground. I am so weary of some of the issues that I really couldn’t be arsed to make my case or try to reassure her, so as of this moment it looks like we may be finished. Again.

Hey ho, I’ll live. Tonight I will be attempting to win more heads-up no limit freezeouts, marking time until I get paid tomorrow and can reload my Omaha gun.

Not well connected

2005-02-21T15:39:00.000Z

More than four hours after my telephone line was supposed to be connected, it still isn’t. Here is the chain of events:

Thursday am: Half a day off work for connection. Engineer turns up, leaves saying it will be switched on remotely by the time I get home from work. It isn't. I call back twice that evening but their 'system is down' so I can't get any help.

Friday am: I ring up and they assure me they can get someone round by midday. I go home from work and wait. Nobody turns up. I ring up, they say they'll get somebody round Saturday morning

Saturday am: I get out of bed at 8am to wait. Nobody turns up. I ring up. Oh, sorry, we'll get an engineer to you by half past five. So I am now spending my entire Saturday sitting at home waiting. I don't mind TOO much, as long as somebody turns up and connects me. Nobody turns up. I ring up and they are closed until Monday. I am now in a state of utter fury. I try their 'emergency line' for customers with no service at all, where an answerphone promises an engineer will call me back 'in due course'. I don't get a call back that evening.

Sunday: I try another message on the 'emergency line'. Needless to say, I never hear a peep as a result of these messages.

Monday am: I call, explain my disappointment and exactly what has happened so far. I get a thousand apologies and a promise that the chap has spoken to my local installations manager who has promised an engineer between midday and 1pm for me - and that I will get a call on my mobile if they are running late. I come home from work before midday and wait. Nobody arrives. Three more calls later I am being told the manager himself will come tomorrow morning (I am not even given a timeslot) and it seems to have been hinted that because the network is complicated in my area the engineers basically haven't been able to be bothered to come out for me.

Who is the phone company responsible for this shower of shit? NTL, avoid them if at all possible. Now let me add that not only is there an NTL phone socket in my room, but it was active for the previous occupant until only a day or two before I moved in. There is no physical work required at all.

And on top of all THAT, and this is going to sound like an exaggeration but it isn’t – there is an NTL depot NEXT DOOR TO MY HOUSE with vans going in and out all day long. I am reaching the point of considering standing in front of one of them and refusing to move until a fucking engineer comes to my fucking house. Or chaining myself to their gates.

What I have done now is contact the local paper, and they seem quite interested because of the semi-humorous angle (not that I see anything funny) of me living next door to the company. I’m expecting a call back from a reporter today.

So, ten days after my last proper session of poker and the best I have managed is a quick snatched session last night where I took my laptop round to my brother’s place. I don’t like doing things like that; I like to be alone when I play, so feeling like I am imposing by even being there isn’t exactly ideal.

Partly because of that discomfort and partly because of bankroll pressure (moving in, paying deposit, buying household goods, has all made it a very very difficult month) I just played a series of cheap, cheap heads-up no limit freezeouts. I won eight and lost five (a three-outer and seven-outer being the key lost hands in two of the defeats) and found it quite enjoyable and easy. I can’t remember why I stopped playing these in the past; I expect they proved not profitable enough, but that’s quite hard to believe when people call re-raises all-in on a paired flop with unimproved King-Queen.

I had more to write about, but this business with the phone line has upset and irritated me so much I can’t focus on much else at the moment. Those useless, incompetent, lying bastards have cost me a good three nights of long, enjoyable and probably profitable poker sessions already – something I was looking forward to more than anything else about finally moving out of mum’s house.

How to pull stunning women

2005-02-16T15:37:00.000Z

I always enjoy Boy Genius’s blog, despite the almost complete lack of poker content. I think it provides me with a dose of ‘everyday life’ blogging that helps prevent me becoming addicted to dozens of ‘personal’ blogs (most of which would be female, no doubt). Personally, I like a bit of personal stuff in the poker mix; I know others don’t, but poker is supposedly a ‘people game’, so it makes sense to be interested in the person behind the check-raise.

Anyway, my eye was caught by BG’s comments about his apparently gorgeous neighbour, a girl he described as ‘out of his league’. Well, it is my opinion and experience that there is no such thing as ‘out of your league’. Once you get that self-fulfilling prophecy out of your head it is amazing what girls you can end up with… OK, I am not saying there is NO limit to it, and yes it will still be harder to pull stunning women than average ones, but if you really fancy somebody then never let that ‘out of my league’ bollocks stop you having a go.

There are many reasons why a gorgeous girl may go out with an average-looking guy. First, she may go for a particular physical type. I spent a summer seeing a very beautiful natural blonde and never really understood her attraction to me. But seeing a couple of her other boyfriends (one later on, and the one she was with at the time I was seeing her) I could see that she went for a particular colouring and build.

Secondly, she really might be not-shallow enough that your charisma and wit overshadow your looks in her eyes. Or a noble or impressive gesture might do it for you; I had a brief affair with a gorgeous girl after ‘rescuing’ her from the unwanted attentions of a sleazy older guy by pretending to be her fiancée.

Finally, she may not think or realise that she is as beautiful as she is. It was a girl like that who removed the scales from my eyes on this whole ‘out of my league’ myth. She was absolutely stunning, and my friend and I went for a meal with her and her sister with no intention of trying to pull them because, yes, we thought were punching above our weight. Later in a club, emboldened by lager but still with no intent to seduce her, I told her that she was ‘so beautiful’ and she started crying.

‘Nobody ever tells me’ she sobbed, and I could believe it because you would look at this girl (who could have been - but wasn’t - a model) and either be intimidated or imagine that she was full of her own attractiveness. So I spent the evening dancing and smooching with her in the club while she laughed off the occasional advances of bigger and better-looking guys. It was an eye-opening experience. Nobody is out of your league*.

As for poker, I can’t write anything about it today because I still haven’t played since Friday night, which currently feels like it was about three months ago. My phone line should be connected tomorrow morning and should herald the start of a new era of putting in a lot of good hours.

I have this curious urge to play limit at the moment – I blame all you damn limit-playing bloggers. I keep thinking it doesn’t sound that difficult, which is a laugh given my experience level.

I played some great snooker last night, I seem to have finally settled into a stance that works and that I can ‘find’ each time I play. The consistency of my last three sessions has been very pleasing and I now expect my breaks to start getting bigger and bigger.

I continue to smoke in fits and starts. Damn, it’s a devilish habit; you can go most of a day without any problem and then the cravings just hit like a train.

Tomorrow morning I should finally have my telephone line. Please Lord let it be so.

*They may not be interested in you, but they are not inherently out of your league.

Answerable to nobody

2005-02-15T17:26:00.000Z

I played on Friday evening for a couple of hours, and made another small profit – just $14 – between a lost sit and go and a PLO8 game. The snooker champion showed up in the Omaha, first time I have seen him in a while. He plays very tight so I was pleasantly surprised when he paid off my nut-nut hand to get me into the positives after a bad start.

PLO8 can be a maddening game. Chips get shuffled around a bit, and you perhaps get one chance per session to really get your chips in with a big expectation AND get called. Those pots play a huge role in determining your results. Friday I got rivered by the over-aggressive player I spent all night waiting to trap, and lost my first buy-in. Later I had to settle for half of a $120 pot against two opponents when I had a 50/50 shot of scooping – those are the hands I am talking about.

The good thing was that I kept my equilibrium after the early bad beat and just continued plugging away, my play unaffected. I might be wrong, but I feel like I have started to become a better gambler; more sanguine, increasingly able to accept the vagaries of fortune and and just keep putting the chips in with the best of it.

All of which makes it quite maddening to be in an enforced break from poker. My contingency plan (for the few days until my phoneline gets connected) fell through, so I have not played since Friday night, and have another two evenings to endure. I am trying to look on the bright side, since I have a rare opportunity to play my football management game and watch a couple of DVDs, but it really rankles to not be able to play poker in utter privacy at last. Plus, I really need the money.

Anyway, moving into my place has made me very happy, despite the lack of poker thus far. I am now answerable to nobody in my living space, and can lock the door and hide without feeling rude. I have gone from living a bus-ride away from town in a crappy village, to being 10-15 minutes’ walk from just about every bar and amenity in the town centre. My snooker club, my favourite drinking places, a bar with every live televised football match (plus some illegal ones), Indian restaurants and fish and chip shops, newsagents, the railway station, an excellent supermarket, a cinema… all this and more is within walking distance, and even closer by bicycle.

I’m surprisingly excited about shaping my room the way I want it. I never paid much attention to décor or furniture in the past – my ex used to decorate and move furniture around and I was totally uninterested – but in this space that is 100% mine (and needs to be utilised effectively) I am looking forward to creating the environment I want. At the moment I am still half in boxes, but I do have the TV in place and my Playstation set up for the first time in about two years.

Valentine’s Day was sort of predictable. A nice meal, then an argument (at least partly about my feelings for my ex) and a frosty night in bed. That was probably 2/1 second favourite in the pre-game betting.

Closer

2005-02-11T17:19:00.000Z

I have a feeling that I recently mentioned two good poker books, but went on to write about only one of them. Well, the other is called ‘The Science of Poker’, by Dr Mahmood. I flicked through it once or twice in the bookshop some time back and didn’t fancy it, but last Friday I finished work early and had the chance to sit in the café at Borders and give it a proper read. And, it is excellent.

Any book with pot limit Omaha in it at all is a bonus for us devotees of that game, and Mahmood writes some decent stuff about it. The book gave me some food for thought about certain types of starting hand and the way to play big ‘wrap’ draws. The heavy statistical bent of the material doesn’t particularly do it for me, but Mahmood has a neat turn of phrase too. I liked this:

‘Loose-aggressive players are both dangerous and beautiful. They are like the necessary evils that make our lives interesting and even enjoyable’.

A good book if you are interested in pot limit play, particularly Omaha, and as it happens I have played against the author many times online.

My girlfriend and I watched ‘Closer’ the other night. What a load of crap. It looked exactly like a play turned into a film, something which rarely works. The dialogue in a movie needs to be more naturalistic to be convincing, and I’m sure that could have been achieved without losing all the best lines (and you could almost see the playwright – a keen poker player by the way - sitting back with a smug smile when some of the line were delivered).

Julia Roberts was the only one of the four stars (Natalie Portman, Jude Law, Clive Owen) who managed to seem more low-key and believable, rather than telegraphing every line and gesture to a theatre audience. Perhaps she has more experience of betrayal and tangled love - ?

Incidentally, what gives with Jude Law? It’s the first time I have seen him in anything, so I had no idea he had such an awful voice and was so physically average. Who knows what the hell attracts women?

If it is snooker skill then I am getting more handsome; I played my best ever session last night, making numerous breaks (without beating my personal best). I played poker when I got home slightly drunk, and recorded only a tiny win as follows:

I came only 10th in a two table sit ‘n’ go while losing some chips in a PLO cash game which broke up before I could recover. Then I sat in another cash game and played very well, while taking second place in a small one table sit ‘n’ go. I more or less threw the SNG heads-up. After my heads-up opponent had been rescued by a pot-splitting river card when all-in, the play ebbed and flowed for a bit, to the point when I was desperate to go to bed and gambled with Q8 when I was pretty sure I was beat.

The cash game was entertaining, mainly because a chap started talking to me after I lost a (very small) pot, and his opening gambit was ‘Are you a beginner?’ He proceeded to criticise/patronise me over a period of time, and it amused me no end - not least because I had outright stolen two reasonable pots from him already at that point (he was a transparently weak player). Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think I am that great of a player, but this dude’s weakness was like a beacon on top of his head. The very fact that he was sitting with about a tenth of the maximum buy-in was a clear indicator – not because he had lost chips (we all do) but because no intelligent player would sit in a pot limit game with a miniscule stack when he could top up.

Finally: I am moving over the weekend, and my phone line gets connected on Thursday. I have a contingency plan for the intervening days, of course…

At last I can forgive Jim McMahon

2005-02-10T17:23:00.000Z

I can’t believe I forgot to mention yesterday the New England Patriots becoming an authentic dynasty, with their third Superbowl win in four years. I think back to the Mike Ditka Chicago Bears and the Parcells New York Giants, both of whom were touted as ‘dynasties’ and failed to deliver. I hated both for various reasons (Superbowl XX being an obvious reason), so am most gratified by the Patriots achievement.

I didn’t tempt fate in here, but I was extremely confident about the game on Sunday, based on what I have seen of the Eagles over the past couple of years. It seemed to me that they are capable of playing really badly and making big mistakes that aren’t in the Patriots make-up – the Eagles’ dismal time management in the fourth quarter springs to mind, as well as managing to wind up starting on their own 3 yard line at the death instead of at the twenty. Never mind McNab’s interceptions.

I watched the game with several cans of strong lager, lots of cigarettes and a nice log fire. It was absolute bliss, even after spilling lager over my mobile phone (it died for a while but – like me – was recovered the next day).

I had another decent session last night, playing a two-table sit and go and the usual PLO 6-handed game. I got rewarded for different qualities in each – more aggression than usual in the tourney and a lot of patience in the cash game.

I have read quite a bit about tournament play recently, one way and another, and certain things have really started to sink in. These things helped me take 3rd in the sit ‘n’ go, after a distressing beat on about the third hand when a chap called my chunky preflop raise and then called my all-in flop raise on a 955 flop, when he held KJ. (He hit the river to beat my AQ).

Actually, I really should have got heads-up at the end, but rather than wait for the 2BB third stack to die I took on the chip leader with KT versus what proved to be his AK. I very, very nearly got him to lay down on the turn but it wasn’t to be.

In the cash, patience worked out for me. Whilst I like to raise quite a wide range of hands in PLO (position willing) I just couldn’t pick up even a sniff of a hand and also had to contend with a fella who liked to reraise persistently. So I battened down the hatches after a couple of lost pots, stole a decent one on the river against a weakie, and waited… Eventually I picked up one of those lovely multiway flops for my hand; a made straight, higher straight draw and small flush draw. The result was that I doubled through thanks to an opponent who was drawing to the straight I had already made and had no other outs. Love it!

I’m playing well at the moment, definitely. I’m thinking more about my actions than I have done for a while, and that is starting to come more naturally. I really would like to move up to bigger games; I haven’t always played quite as low down the food chain as at present, but my constant cannibalisation of my bankroll precludes me moving up for the time being. Part of my deposit on my new living-space is coming out of the poker account tomorrow. Which makes me both happy and sad, at the same time.

Ace of Spades

2005-02-08T16:37:00.000Z

Things are continuing to go quite well, when I do actually get to play. An horrible two-outer in a moderate pot and a lost coin-toss in a decent pot prevented it being even better.

An interesting thing came up twice in a middling losing session the other night. Twice an opponent bet into me quite big on the river, in such a way that I felt strongly he did not have the nut hand he was representing. In both cases I had what amounted to third or fourth nuts, and chose to call – both times losing to his marginally better hands. I feel pretty sure that he would not have called an enormous raise back, and I feel that I left pots on the table through lack of guts. My reads were good, but I didn’t take the optimum action. Or did I? Perhaps calling was best because (a) it risks less money on a read which could be wrong; (b) a shade better hand and my call would have won and (c) he might have called a raise, you never know.

Talking of good reads, I want to praise two books. I just re-read Doyle Brunson’s book ‘According to Doyle’ over the weekend. It is essentially a collection of anecdotes, but many of them convey really useful poker wisdom (it is now reprinted as ‘Poker Wisdom of a Champion’). Not advice of the ‘Ace Queen is no good with five players left to act’ ilk, but broader thoughts on being a good gambler and poker player per se. I don’t know to what extent it was ghosted, but Doyle displays a pleasing turn of phrase and a story-telling knack.

I’ve been on a splurge of downloading tracks and copying CDs onto my laptop for my crappy MP3 player recently. Recent downloads include ‘Ace of Spades’ by Motorhead, ‘Angel Is The Centrefold’ by the J Geils Band, ‘Kayleigh’ by Marillion, and CDs copied include ‘Dark Side of the Moon’ by Pink Floyd. What a magnificent piece of work that album is.

It is now less than a week before I get my independence and privacy back. Sadly, my credit problems mean the phone company want a £50 deposit to turn the line on for me. That was not unexpected but could delay me getting connected by a day or two.

My total debts amount to about $65,000, which I am paying off at around $12000 per year under my current arrangement. I’ve put it in dollars because it sounds even more impressive. Or rather, less impressive.

Regrets, I've had a few

2005-02-04T13:06:00.000Z

“The problem with slowplaying the nuts is that there might be somebody else slowplaying a hand they only think is the nuts” -Gary Carson

A quick rambling post to avoid hiatus status. I’ve had three decent winning sessions and one tiny loss in the last four, since I started focussing more. Most of the profit has been in Omaha high only; it was daft of me to devote so much time to hi-lo when I am a long term winner in ‘straight’ Omaha. I also took 3rd in a two-table NLHE and enjoyed it immensely. I was chip leader at one point with three left, but it was pretty much a crapshoot at that stage.

I’m getting nowhere near enough hours in at the moment, only 12.5 hours in the past FORTNIGHT. One of the many, many good points of my imminent move out of ‘home’ and into sharing with a friend and a couple of others is that I will undoubtedly get far more play in. The reasons:

1. When going out on weekday evenings I will be able to go home first, eat and still get a couple of hours in if I wish before going out. (This is because I will be living in town rather than in an outlying village)

2. I will have my very own phone line, nobody else to consider

3. I will be able to play in bed. Note to self: that didn’t work out terribly well up north, so be careful…

I can’t wait, although I still have a slight worry because I am trying to get the landlord to reduce the amount of rent plus deposit I need to pay next Friday, but haven’t got hold of him yet. I have a good-sounding reason, without boring you with details. It would help enormously if he agrees. If not, I may have to empty the bankroll - just when it is showing signs of getting back to the healthier levels of two to three months ago.

What else? I still get emotional at times about my ex. We had a long chat on Tuesday evening, which was nice. I did cry a little – over regrets, I suppose. Regret that I was not better to her. Regret that she lost interest in me sexually, and regret over the character traits that caused that. Regret over the surgery she had which didn’t help. Regret that for whatever reasons, I could not make a lasting relationship work with this most admirable, special person.

There were lots of other ingredients in my tears, too. Selfish pain that she is moving on so comprehensively with her new boyfriend. Self-doubt – how could this wonderful person ever have had such feelings for me? Sentimentality (a major flaw in my game) and mourning for all the lost things that we did together, the things I miss.

Christ I sound weak. What happened to all the ‘not getting emotionally attached’ schtick?

By the way, I really need to look into this whole concept of ‘rakeback’ schemes. At this moment I have absolutely no idea how they work, what you have to do, what sites offer them. But I don’t believe in ignoring free (or cheap) money.

Eight years ago today

2005-01-31T10:03:00.000Z

I had a real good session on Thursday night, two-tabling with ‘Faranheit 9/11’ on TV in the background. I came out just over $50 winner in two hours (up in Omaha, down in O8), but most importantly played well. I concentrated more than usual – which yielded a number of note-worthy observations on opponents – and gave my decisions somewhat more thought than usual, which resulted in saving a few dollars here and gleaning a few extra dollars there.

As for ‘Faranheit 9/11’, I was pleasantly surprised. I suppose I have heard nothing but right-wing criticism of the movie for a long time, so I expected it to be far more contentious, manipulative and strident than it proved to be. In fact I found Moore’s commentary to be pleasantly understated most of the time.

I am sure that there are inaccuracies in the film. I am equally sure that there are inaccuracies (and especially omissions) in almost every piece of journalism or polemic about that war and that president. For me, the bottom line is that mainstream TV and newspaper reporting follows a very narrow brief, so people like Michael Moore are an absolutely vital part of the media.

I finally did a bit of numbers-work on Thursday also. Mr Industrious. It turns out that I am actually down in PLO8 after 56 hours. I am surprised, disappointed and alarmed. I can’t beat Pot Limit Omaha 8 or better?? Perversely, I don’t intend to quit it just yet - but things better take a turn for the better very soon or I most certainly will.

In other news, it looks like I could be moving out of ‘home’ in as little as two weeks’ time. This is great news, except that the need to pay a deposit suddenly smacked me in the face. I need to win at poker, negotiate, ask for favours and eat dried bread – and I only enjoy one of those four things.

NB: Eight years ago today I met (and slept with) the girl who would become my girlfriend for almost seven years.